Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[User62651]

Ayrshire have been on holiday from Friday afternoon [9th]

Ours in Argyll went on holiday Friday 2nd so we're half way through.
Dont quite get this, I think summer holidays for scottish state schools all follow the same 6 or 7 weeks, yet the October fortnight holiday can be any 2 weeks in October depending on where you live.
Rumours a while ago were there'd be a 2 week circuit breaker during school October holidays (kids at home so good time to do it) until people realised the above!

 

[road2ruin]

Whilst the increase in hospitalisations is a concern I've read a couple of articles that suggest we're not in the same situation as we were in March based on the experience of those in Europe who we are constantly told we're a few weeks behind....

Italian doctor...

“On Covid, he writes: ‘The hospitalisations are growing, but fortunately also the discharges. Compared to the terrible days of last spring, we are witnessing on average shorter hospitalisations, slightly lower average age (67 years today), more manageable disease and practically zero lethality. We still have a few more complex cases, but these represent the minority.

“‘We have the drugs, we know how and when to use them, and we are more confident in what we do. It is therefore necessary to avoid giving messages of terror.'”

French doctor...

"......there is no cause for real concern yet’. And why not? ‘Our hospitals are now better equipped, doctors are more knowledgeable about the virus and they have developed new techniques to treat patients. We do not ventilate patients anywhere near as much – as we know now that it is something to do only as a last resort.’ Eight regions in France still have no Covid patients in ICU beds."

Hopefully it follows a similar path in our hospitals given the inevitable rise in hospitalised cases.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Just to digress slightly, wasn't there accusations of scare mongering the other week when the scientist said we could get 50,000 cases a day if we continued as we were?
Not a bad guess looking at that chart.

I think the 50,000 cases day were shown(not a prediction) as happening by tomorrow( Tuesday IIRC) and unless they find a load of cases in the excel spreadsheet, looks like we are miles off that figure (thankfully...….).

Scotlands science 'predictions' on their modelling are even madder imho, that they produced last week. The report is interesting reading, if you are into that kind of thing.

If you wish to see a comparison normally this guy uploads a chart daily and again thankfully we are nowhere near doubling every 7 days on the not a prediction chart.

https://twitter.com/RP131

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

... or maybe the 5 on the list before her said no. Maybe a big second spike wasn't expected, or that a vaccine would be in place.

And maybe you're pre-judging without all the facts.

I read yesterday that 2000 contracted have been released by T&T over the last few weeks. Look. The facts are plain and incontrovertible.

My wife applied for T&T when applications were first sought. She is exactly what T&T requires - as confirmed by an email she got back from our MP Jeremy Hunt when she first raised her concerns to him. Many weeks passed with nothing until she was told she was not required - since then again absolutely nothing until Friday when out of the blue they are asking her what shifts she can do?

Her frustration is simply that they could have trained up such as her so she would be ‘oven ready’ (to coin a phrase) - and put her on a ‘bank’ of professionals ready to step in immediately the need arose. As many knew it would. But no. Even if she could still join T&T she finds it typical NHS (or NHS provider) to leave things to the last minute then reactively start a process that could have been done and dusted (to coin another) many months ago.

What other facts are pertinent to that?

 

[Ethan]

Whilst the increase in hospitalisations is a concern I've read a couple of articles that suggest we're not in the same situation as we were in March based on the experience of those in Europe who we are constantly told we're a few weeks behind....

Italian doctor...

“On Covid, he writes: ‘The hospitalisations are growing, but fortunately also the discharges. Compared to the terrible days of last spring, we are witnessing on average shorter hospitalisations, slightly lower average age (67 years today), more manageable disease and practically zero lethality. We still have a few more complex cases, but these represent the minority.

“‘We have the drugs, we know how and when to use them, and we are more confident in what we do. It is therefore necessary to avoid giving messages of terror.'”

French doctor...

"......there is no cause for real concern yet’. And why not? ‘Our hospitals are now better equipped, doctors are more knowledgeable about the virus and they have developed new techniques to treat patients. We do not ventilate patients anywhere near as much – as we know now that it is something to do only as a last resort.’ Eight regions in France still have no Covid patients in ICU beds."

Hopefully it follows a similar path in our hospitals given the inevitable rise in hospitalised cases.

I think the severity seems to have softened slightly, not because the virus is any different but because the vulnerable population is younger and fitter, having been stripped of many of the older people first time round. Treatments are also better understood, but that doesn't affect presenting condition.

I know a doctor in the front line in the hospital in Derry, NI and she says it is very much still a matter of great concern, though. They are a hair's breadth from being overwhelmed.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I think the 50,000 cases day were shown(not a prediction) as happening by tomorrow( Tuesday IIRC) and unless they find a load of cases in the excel spreadsheet, looks like we are miles off that figure (thankfully...….).

Scotlands science 'predictions' on their modelling are even madder imho, that they produced last week. The report is interesting reading, if you are into that kind of thing.

If you wish to see a comparison normally this guy uploads a chart daily and again thankfully we are nowhere near doubling every 7 days on the not a prediction chart.

https://twitter.com/RP

Just as well proactive measures are in place that dampen unhindered mathematical certainty. I am also thinking that there are likely to be estimates made of unmeasured infection numbers not identified through testing - so not sure you can draw complete conclusions on actual transmission and infection growth in the community simply from test results

 

[Lord Tyrion]

My Mrs gets a letter on Friday from NHS Professionals asking her to join T&T - she applied right at the start - and asking first off what shifts she can do...What?

Why was she not asked during the summer for all the evidence and validation she is now being asked to provide. Why did they not do the training on procedures - get her set up with any software required etc...so she would be on their bank and ready to go come October when we knew a second surge was very likely.

Asking her now in the first email what shifts she can do? Ah well. Too late. Since she applied and wasn’t taken on she’s signed up for the hospital bank to provide cover for the old team.

Not sufficient forward thinking has gone into T&T - or maybe the private company who she would now work for if she did it didn’t fancy spending the money on training and prepping her. What a shambles is our world class T&T..Mrs is really annoyed and frustrated with them

I think you are over estimating what is required to do the job. The woman who runs the dog kennels where my daughter did her saturday job worked on the T & T. No medical or IT background, none was needed. She would sit in front of a screen, refreshing every few minutes, waiting for a ping to occur. She would then ring the numbers given to advise that the people she was ringing to isolate, or they had been close to someone who had tested positive. On a busy week she would have 2 phone calls to make. It was a tremendous waste of money across the country. I suspect the training required would have barely gone past 5-10 minutes. If it did then it was only becasue they were stretching it out.

A lot of the people doing this have now probably gone back to university, are off furlough, so they are upping their numbers again to deal with the current rise in cases. If your wife doesn't take up the offer they will simply go down the list to the next person. It is easy money for an unskilled job. Keep watching your box set, playing video games whilst being paid for the privelege.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Interesting information when all the media attention seems to be on the hospitality industry.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Interesting information when all the media attention seems to be on the hospitality industry.

Its crazy isn't it, think the information above comes from the ONS stuff iirc, on the week I looked at the pubs etc was 5%.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Just as well proactive measures are in place that dampen unhindered mathematical certainty. I am also thinking that there are likely to be estimates made of unmeasured infection numbers not identified through testing - so not sure you can draw complete conclusions on actual transmission and infection growth in the community simply from test results

Your funny

Not going to comment on the political measures they actually took(ie not a lot) and how they long they take to filter tho to test results, as not allowed to speak no evil political but what you say above isn't quite true

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Its crazy isn't it, think the information above comes from the ONS stuff iirc, on the week I looked at the pubs etc was 5%.

Pubs etc opened in June, daily rises started to to increase badly in sept when schools/Uni’s etc opened up.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Interesting information when all the media attention seems to be on the hospitality industry.
View attachment 32882

I'd love to see figures right now with schoolkids and university students removed. They are surely distorting the figures massively.

 

[Ethan]

Its crazy isn't it, think the information above comes from the ONS stuff iirc, on the week I looked at the pubs etc was 5%.

Some of those settings are discretionary and avoidable, some aren't. People need to live somewhere, whether that is in a care home or student accommodation, so there is always going to be a certain number of cases attached to those sorts of places. They don't "need" to go to pubs and clubs, so that is a risk that can be avoided. I would also be a little dubious about that 5%.

 

[clubchamp98]

Pubs etc opened in June, daily rises started to to increase badly in sept when schools/Uni’s etc opened up.

Tottaly agree.
But we’re not allowed to blame schools when it’s the worst place to be.
My wife and daughter work in schools.
The amount of people off work in schools now is getting worse and soon they will not be able to open.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

An interesting looking article :-

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13423

Global infection fatality rate is 0.15-0.20% (0.03-0.04% in those <70 years)

Will have a proper read later, as looks like it covers various areas in the paper.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

Some of those settings are discretionary and avoidable, some aren't. People need to live somewhere, whether that is in a care home or student accommodation, so there is always going to be a certain number of cases attached to those sorts of places. They don't "need" to go to pubs and clubs, so that is a risk that can be avoided. I would also be a little dubious about that 5%.

Why dubious? The stats came from PHE.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Some of those settings are discretionary and avoidable, some aren't. People need to live somewhere, whether that is in a care home or student accommodation, so there is always going to be a certain number of cases attached to those sorts of places. They don't "need" to go to pubs and clubs, so that is a risk that can be avoided. I would also be a little dubious about that 5%.

You either believe data collected, verify it, make sure it is sensible and act on it or you just ignore it and do your own thing.

Personally I prefer the first option, rather than seat of the pants, gut feeling, made up stuff.

We also need to look at the whole picture and not just covid. As posted before this is a fine balancing act and people are going to die from whatever we do......its only a matter who, how early and how many.

 

[Ethan]

You either believe data collected, verify it, make sure it is sensible and act on it or you just ignore it and do your own thing.

Personally I prefer the first option, rather than seat of the pants, gut feeling, made up stuff.

We also need to look at the whole picture and not just covid. As posted before this is a fine balancing act and people are going to die from whatever we do......its only a matter who, how early and how many.

It isn't a matter of believing the data, it is a matter of knowing there are some inherent biases in their collection. Data is more useful if reliable.

I have done contact tracing myself, and it is hard to be sure where the location of transmission was. People were out at work, then in the pub with colleagues later, so where did the transmission take place between two colleagues? These questions tend to default to the places they spent most time, so the workplace (or home or student accommodation) get nominated. That assumption carries a level of uncertainty.

 

[Beezerk]

On the subject of pubs, the micro pub I frequent had a call yesterday morning to say there had been a positive case who had been in there recently. That started loads of Facebook and WhatsApp chatter as to who it could be, proper witch hunt style ?
I bumped into the owner of the micro pub yesterday afternoon and had a quick natter, he didn't give many details but said there was nothing to worry about as the fella who tested positive was only in a short time and the place had been empty.
They still closed the place yesterday and got it deep cleaned as a precaution though.
It did get me a touch concerned for a few hours though.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

It isn't a matter of believing the data, it is a matter of knowing there are some inherent biases in their collection. Data is more useful if reliable.

I have done contact tracing myself, and it is hard to be sure where the location of transmission was. People were out at work, then in the pub with colleagues later, so where did the transmission take place between two colleagues? These questions tend to default to the places they spent most time, so the workplace (or home or student accommodation) get nominated. That assumption carries a level of uncertainty.

Which makes a lot of sense, so why put so much emphasis on the pubs etc?