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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Ethan said:
I have heard the same and there is some discussion on medical fora, but I think the general view is that there is not good evidence of that. There are a couple of mutations of Covid around, but that has been the case for some months. The case fatality rate has dropped a bit recently, which might be because it hit the most vulnerable first, and is now working through slightly tougher patients with a lower kill rate.

Treatments are also better now. at the start it was treated like a conventional pneumonia, but now different oxygenation protocols are used and the focus on stuff like thrombotic complications is much sharper.

On the other hand, we are also learning that a lot more people have residual disease, mostly due to the inflammatory effects of the virus, including thrombosis, liver, renal and brain effects. Patients who seem to get better initially and then suddenly get worse around day 7 have usually had an inflammatory episode, with an outpouring of hormones and various natural immune cells in what is known as a cytokine storm. That might explain why BAME or people with diabetes or hypertension do worse, they have a heightened basal state of inflammation, so are part of the way down that track already.

Covid remains a nasty disease and if you get it, have a miserable week in bed then get back to normal, you have been fortunate.
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The highlighted bit is certainly true, I did a bit of reading, found the case/fatality ratio had fallen from 6% on 24 June to 1.5% on 5 August, a four-fold drop in under six weeks. (Oxford university study)
Also as you say another important change is the age of new infections. At the peak of the UK's outbreak in April, 75% of people catching the virus were aged over 75, but in recent weeks the balance has shifted, with more found among working-age people. (Sky news article)
They don't get hit as badly by COVID-19, which brings the case fatality ratio down.
(Obviously if it starts getting out of control in the young it will again spread to the more vulnerable parts of the population)
As before the best places to look to see what is going to happen here are France and Spain, where cases are rising fast, but deaths and hospitalisations are still low.
Personally I feel optimistic that it is not going to go the same way as it did in March.

Still not convinced of the accuracy of the test either as both my wife and another lady on the 4 bed ward tested negative (4 times now) after a positive test. Unfortunately it has delayed her Transfer and treatment.
 
Ethan said:
I think the general public has done pretty well during lockdown. The Govt was said to be surprised by the numbers working from home, the small numbers of key workers' kids attending school, the streets in many big cities were like a post apocalyptic movie and the reluctance of people to go back to offices leading to Govt demands that people should.

The problem all tracks back to allowing virus into the country by failing to lockdown fast and effectively enough and failing to properly get control of it through competent test and trace. Once that battle was lost, the rest was and is inevitable.
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Without getting into a political battle (not allowed), I would like to make a point about yours in bold above, one you have made several times. And with an inference of incompetence by the government.
I will make mine only once.
It is true that if the borders had been shut to all who may have possibly brought virus into the country, that the infections would have been minimal:
However, that practicalitywas just not on at the onset of this.
I understand that, apart from business and highly desirable visits from non U.K. citizens, for whatever reasons, there were in 2019 some 93000 or so UK citizens visiting abroad. Giving an idea of how large a number are abroad at any one time.
Would not your border lockdown have denied them return to their homeland?
All sorts of protests and claims of panic and unnecessary draconian action would have been levelled at that decision.
Even now, with the forthcoming measures, there is a balance to be struck, so that the economy and education of the country can partially function.
A little understanding of the difficulties and complexities re this Covid is what this Country should now be showing. Let's hope they do.
 
Hacker Khan said:
I would argue it is very debatable if the blame should be on 'too many of the population'. Some other countries are seeing the same rise so we are not unique, and without a world beating test and trace system at the same time as the return to schools, universities, restaurants, bars, work place etc whilst trying to fight a virus that is spread by human contact then no quite sure what anyone expected. The majority of the population have followed the rules and if plans were based on 100% compliance then I'd suggest the plans were at least to blame as much as the population have been.
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The virus is spread by people failing to maintain some simple disciplines like social distancing, it doesnt take the majority to start infections rising again, it just needs a minority of meat heads who think their social life is sacrosanct along with a belief of invunerability.
 
KenL said:
Heard from 2 pub owners on radio today convinced that early closing will lead to more people heading into homes at night.
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Most of the pubs/eating houses in my rural area are empty at 10 o clock. Probable exception on a Saturday night.
I think that those pub owners will save money.
There has always been a carry oot by some customers/alcoholics no matter what time the pub closed.
 
Hacker Khan said:
I would argue it is very debatable if the blame should be on 'too many of the population'. Some other countries are seeing the same rise so we are not unique, and without a world beating test and trace system at the same time as the return to schools, universities, restaurants, bars, work place etc whilst trying to fight a virus that is spread by human contact then no quite sure what anyone expected. The majority of the population have followed the rules and if plans were based on 100% compliance then I'd suggest the plans were at least to blame as much as the population have been.
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There is no point in commenting upon the government (not allowed) or Test & Trace (not yet ‘World Class’). But we can all do our bit despite any failings in the aforementioned, and the performance of a section of our population has been lamentable - and it is humans that pass on the infection - with a serious impact on the lives of many.
 
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Swinglowandslow said:
Without getting into a political battle (not allowed), I would like to make a point about yours in bold above, one you have made several times. And with an inference of incompetence by the government.
I will make mine only once.
It is true that if the borders had been shut to all who may have possibly brought virus into the country, that the infections would have been minimal:
However, that practicalitywas just not on at the onset of this.
I understand that, apart from business and highly desirable visits from non U.K. citizens, for whatever reasons, there were in 2019 some 93000 or so UK citizens visiting abroad. Giving an idea of how large a number are abroad at any one time.
Would not your border lockdown have denied them return to their homeland?
All sorts of protests and claims of panic and unnecessary draconian action would have been levelled at that decision.
Even now, with the forthcoming measures, there is a balance to be struck, so that the economy and education of the country can partially function.
A little understanding of the difficulties and complexities re this Covid is what this Country should now be showing. Let's hope they do.
Click to expand...

No, my lockdown would have quarantined them for 2 weeks. Business will suffer more in the long run from this.
 
Fade and Die said:
The highlighted bit is certainly true, I did a bit of reading, found the case/fatality ratio had fallen from 6% on 24 June to 1.5% on 5 August, a four-fold drop in under six weeks. (Oxford university study)
Also as you say another important change is the age of new infections. At the peak of the UK's outbreak in April, 75% of people catching the virus were aged over 75, but in recent weeks the balance has shifted, with more found among working-age people. (Sky news article)
They don't get hit as badly by COVID-19, which brings the case fatality ratio down.
(Obviously if it starts getting out of control in the young it will again spread to the more vulnerable parts of the population)
As before the best places to look to see what is going to happen here are France and Spain, where cases are rising fast, but deaths and hospitalisations are still low.
Personally I feel optimistic that it is not going to go the same way as it did in March.

Still not convinced of the accuracy of the test either as both my wife and another lady on the 4 bed ward tested negative (4 times now) after a positive test. Unfortunately it has delayed her Transfer and treatment.
Click to expand...

There is some artefact in the different rates. I don't think the true case fatality rate was ever 6%, but it does seem to have fallen a bit, mostly as a result in changes in the population affected.
 
Has made me realise that quite a few people I know thought they were destined to live forever. Where there have been deaths of people over the age of 50/60/70/80 and they’re saying “I can’t believe they’re gone at such a young age.” Or “Gone before their time” etc

We’re far too unaware of our own mortality.
 
Ethan said:
No, my lockdown would have quarantined them for 2 weeks.
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As, I believe, happened with a small number repatriated from a cruise liner - weren’t they all shipped off to Liverpool somewhere for 14 days?

I said this way back in February. Everyone returning to the U.K. from a known coronavirus hotspot, such as those skiing in Northern Italy, should have been met at the airport and driven straight to a quarantine centre. It may well have been a logistical nightmare, but it would have been a whole lot better than the chaos which has ensued.
 
williamalex1 said:
Why would anyone think that our government and others around the world are crippling their own economies for something that's not that serious.
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Because they believe it’s to make the working class poorer so that those who are already rich can hold more power and sway. It’s the deep state or the new world order, whatever the particular conspiracy theorist leans towards that day as is usually said to be controlled by George Soros, Bill Gates, Prince Charles etc etc.

I’m genuinely not making this up.
 
Ethan said:
There is some artefact in the different rates. I don't think the true case fatality rate was ever 6%, but it does seem to have fallen a bit, mostly as a result in changes in the population affected.
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What about the theory that masks are causing a lower viral load (not sure if that's the correct term) and people are getting a lower initial dose of the virus due the mask preventing some of the virus getting through so their immune system is better able to cope and they don't get as unwell with it? Does that hold any weight?
 
I do laugh at people suggesting that only those not complying with social distancing and other measures are somehow the same people who are at the bottom end of the social and economic tables!

Behave, there are plenty of cases of all types of people at all ends of the social and economic spectrum thinking they are immune to this and flouting the rules.
 
Kellfire said:
Because they believe it’s to make the working class poorer so that those who are already rich can hold more power and sway. It’s the deep state or the new world order, whatever the particular conspiracy theorist leans towards that day as is usually said to be controlled by George Soros, Bill Gates, Prince Charles etc etc.

I’m genuinely not making this up.
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What are your sources?
 
ColchesterFC said:
What about the theory that masks are causing a lower viral load (not sure if that's the correct term) and people are getting a lower initial dose of the virus due the mask preventing some of the virus getting through so their immune system is better able to cope and they don't get as unwell with it? Does that hold any weight?
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Interesting and plausible but unproven. Viral load seems to be related to severity of infection so NHS staff who work with sick people shedding a lot of virus are at higher risk. The variolation theory is essentially a sort of natural immunisation without getting enough virus to make you really sick.
 
Billysboots said:
As, I believe, happened with a small number repatriated from a cruise liner - weren’t they all shipped off to Liverpool somewhere for 14 days?

I said this way back in February. Everyone returning to the U.K. from a known coronavirus hotspot, such as those skiing in Northern Italy, should have been met at the airport and driven straight to a quarantine centre. It may well have been a logistical nightmare, but it would have been a whole lot better than the chaos which has ensued.
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People from Wuhan were shipped off to The Wirral, I think. Caused a minor fuss in my area because the coaches used were from a local Reading firm that also does school runs.
 
SocketRocket said:
The virus is spread by people failing to maintain some simple disciplines like social distancing, it doesnt take the majority to start infections rising again, it just needs a minority of meat heads who think their social life is sacrosanct along with a belief of invunerability.
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This is what depresses me more than anything else. :(
The guidelines are there and in place but people still ignore them for their own stupid and/or selfish reasons. They think the rules don't apply to them, or they'll never get it, or think they've had it and are immune and they NEVER think about the consequences about passing it on to somebody else. You can read cases about it pretty much every day. We seem to be in a world where people just don't care about the impact on everyone else as long as they can do what they like, irrespective of the consequences.
 
I do think the media is shifting towards a mantra of "we've had enough of this now - the country's financials have to come first". Of course we could debate this until the cows come home or a mod shuts it down but there is a real sense of a different attitude to the one we had back in March.
 
Also, the rule of six thing. We have a bubble with my mum, who's on her own and comes to dinner on a Thursday and Sunday with us. Does she count as our household when our lad and family (totalling four) come for Sunday dinner as well?
 
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