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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Ethan said:
People still don't quite get how fast exponential growth moves, so they need a big number placed before them to shake them out of their complacency.
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The exponential growth of cases in my area, according to data on the Covid Symptom Study app, has been intimidating to watch over the last few days.

Would recommend the nitpickers do the same
 
fundy said:
Of course its a prediction, the prediction being that it will continue to double every 7 days, there is no clear evidence that it will continue to do so (it could get faster or slower)
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Sorry - It is NOT a prediction - predictions have associated uncertainty - this is simple arithmetic based upon it doubling every 7 days as it currently is doing - call it an extrapolation if you wish as that is indeed what it is. That growth will continue as it currently is doing with one assumption - and that assumption is that nothing is changed to make the growth rate change.

I said that there are things that are being done and might be done that would extend the 7 days doubling period but if it continues to increase then the daily figure of 50000 will be reached eventually. If the government wishes to make that doubling in seven days their baseline assumption for a forecast then it can do that. But let’s not blame these guys for an exaggerated and dire forecast.
 
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SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Sorry - It is NOT a prediction - predictions have associated uncertainty - this is simple arithmetic based upon it doubling every 7 days as it currently is doing - call it an extrapolation if you wish as that is indeed what it is. That growth will continue as it currently is doing with one assumption - and that assumption is that nothing is changed to make the growth rate change.
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The thing is that it isn't currently doubling every 7 days. The attached image shows the number of positive cases each day. There was a big jump in the week from 6th - 13th September where it did almost double, which would coincide with schools going back, but in the last week ( 13th -20th Sept) it's levelled off and only increased by 4403 or 17%.

CovidCases.JPG

Numbers taken from the graph on this site........https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/

EDIT - should have said that the first column of numbers is cases on that date and the last column is cumulative case of the preceding 7 days - helpfully colour coded to compare weeks.
 
Interesting to see what 8.00pm will bring. Has to be more than work from home if you can, closing pubs etc early and wearing masks inside unless you are sitting down to eat or drink. Seems set to be here for six months perhaps longer based on what has been said today. The thing is until the R number reduces significantly and the spread slows what are the alternatives. Any which way it's going to be a bumpy ride short term at least
 
huds1475 said:
They were 2 weeks ago, sure thats moved on
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That was two weeks after the Scottish schools returned [now 4 weeks]
To me the inevitable has happened, England should have followed suit to save additional restrictions down the line.
Bad mistake IMO.

Scottish pubs go back to the 1960's, closing at 10pm
I wonder if you will still get the 10 mins.[cough] drinking up time.
 
Doon frae Troon said:
That was two weeks after the Scottish schools returned [now 4 weeks]
To me the inevitable has happened, England should have followed suit to save additional restrictions down the line.
Bad mistake IMO.

Scottish pubs go back to the 1960's, closing at 10pm
I wonder if you will still get the 10 mins.[cough] drinking up time.
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Heard from 2 pub owners on radio today convinced that early closing will lead to more people heading into homes at night.
 
Seriously disppointed that the behaviours of too many of the population of this country means that we are now going to be under tighter restrictions quite possibly for the next 6 months. Restrictions that will really knacker the work prospects of so many in the entertainment and hospitality sectors - some currently not long back to work; still furloughed; or already made redundant.

And so when I hear so many spout that they should be able to assess and live their own risk, without expressing any care or consideration for those whose lives have been so seriously impacted by the virus, I can feel heartily sickened by the state of our country.

And this is personal as we know that our son will be feeling severely depressed and distressed by today's developments - and we know we will have to continue to support him through the very difficult times of the coming dark months.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Seriously disppointed that the behaviours of too many of the population of this country means that we are now going to be under tighter restrictions quite possibly for the next 6 months. Restrictions that will really knacker the work prospects of so many in the entertainment and hospitality sectors - some currently not long back to work; still furloughed; or already made redundant.

And so when I hear so many spout that they should be able to assess and live their own risk, without expressing any care or consideration for those whose lives have been so seriously impacted by the virus, I can feel heartily sickened by the state of our country.

And this is personal as we know that our son will be feeling severely depressed and distressed by today's developments - and we know we will have to continue to support him through the very difficult times of the coming dark months.
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Sorry but I honestly believe that the majority of the population have done their bit. There was always going to be a minority who don’t, that’s the same with anything. The restrictions being brought in now are largely due to the Government (rightly) bring schools, colleges etc back full time and actively encouraging everyone to get back to work and stop working at home. This is, in my opinion, where most of the increase in cases has come from.

If anyone should be taking flak now it is 100% at the door of the Government. It seems to have been a surprise to them that after all the restrictions that cases would rise having told people to get back to it. It’s embarrassing that after 6 months or so to prepare we seem to be starting from a standing start. Where was the preparation with track and trace etc? The rises in cases was a definite yet here we are, blaming young people, blaming the fact that it’s Autumn etc etc. Cretins, the lot of them.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Seriously disppointed that the behaviours of too many of the population of this country means that we are now going to be under tighter restrictions quite possibly for the next 6 months. Restrictions that will really knacker the work prospects of so many in the entertainment and hospitality sectors - some currently not long back to work; still furloughed; or already made redundant.

And so when I hear so many spout that they should be able to assess and live their own risk, without expressing any care or consideration for those whose lives have been so seriously impacted by the virus, I can feel heartily sickened by the state of our country.

And this is personal as we know that our son will be feeling severely depressed and distressed by today's developments - and we know we will have to continue to support him through the very difficult times of the coming dark months.
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I would argue it is very debatable if the blame should be on 'too many of the population'. Some other countries are seeing the same rise so we are not unique, and without a world beating test and trace system at the same time as the return to schools, universities, restaurants, bars, work place etc whilst trying to fight a virus that is spread by human contact then no quite sure what anyone expected. The majority of the population have followed the rules and if plans were based on 100% compliance then I'd suggest the plans were at least to blame as much as the population have been.
 
HomerJSimpson said:
Interesting to see what 8.00pm will bring. Has to be more than work from home if you can, closing pubs etc early and wearing masks inside unless you are sitting down to eat or drink. Seems set to be here for six months perhaps longer based on what has been said today. The thing is until the R number reduces significantly and the spread slows what are the alternatives. Any which way it's going to be a bumpy ride short term at least
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Exactly the same things that have already been released several hours ago. ?
 
I think the general public has done pretty well during lockdown. The Govt was said to be surprised by the numbers working from home, the small numbers of key workers' kids attending school, the streets in many big cities were like a post apocalyptic movie and the reluctance of people to go back to offices leading to Govt demands that people should.

The problem all tracks back to allowing virus into the country by failing to lockdown fast and effectively enough and failing to properly get control of it through competent test and trace. Once that battle was lost, the rest was and is inevitable.
 
Ethan said:
I think the general public has done pretty well during lockdown. The Govt was said to be surprised by the numbers working from home, the small numbers of key workers' kids attending school, the streets in many big cities were like a post apocalyptic movie and the reluctance of people to go back to offices leading to Govt demands that people should.

The problem all tracks back to allowing virus into the country by failing to lockdown fast and effectively enough and failing to properly get control of it through competent test and trace. Once that battle was lost, the rest was and is inevitable.
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What are your thoughts on the idea that the virus has mutated and is now more infectious but less lethal, the nurse in my wife’s respiratory ward was talking about it. Only her opinion of course but if the number of deaths stay low ?? There might be something to it.
 
Fade and Die said:
What are your thoughts on the idea that the virus has mutated and is now more infectious but less lethal, the nurse in my wife’s respiratory ward was talking about it. Only her opinion of course but if the number of deaths stay low ?? There might be something to it.
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An Italian doctor suggested that at the end of the first lockdown and was shot down pretty quickly
 
Fade and Die said:
What are your thoughts on the idea that the virus has mutated and is now more infectious but less lethal, the nurse in my wife’s respiratory ward was talking about it. Only her opinion of course but if the number of deaths stay low ?? There might be something to it.
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I have heard the same and there is some discussion on medical fora, but I think the general view is that there is not good evidence of that. There are a couple of mutations of Covid around, but that has been the case for some months. The case fatality rate has dropped a bit recently, which might be because it hit the most vulnerable first, and is now working through slightly tougher patients with a lower kill rate.

Treatments are also better now. at the start it was treated like a conventional pneumonia, but now different oxygenation protocols are used and the focus on stuff like thrombotic complications is much sharper.

On the other hand, we are also learning that a lot more people have residual disease, mostly due to the inflammatory effects of the virus, including thrombosis, liver, renal and brain effects. Patients who seem to get better initially and then suddenly get worse around day 7 have usually had an inflammatory episode, with an outpouring of hormones and various natural immune cells in what is known as a cytokine storm. That might explain why BAME or people with diabetes or hypertension do worse, they have a heightened basal state of inflammation, so are part of the way down that track already.

Covid remains a nasty disease and if you get it, have a miserable week in bed then get back to normal, you have been fortunate.
 
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