Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[SocketRocket]

Lol. Just went to post some snarky repost to SR's previous post but it seems to mysteriously vanished!!
Who'd have thunk it.
Lets just say that Mark Twain once made a particularly apposite "bon mot"....

Look harder, it's still there. Who'd have thunk it indeed.

Twain said may things, he did give some good advice about wrestling.

While I'm here your last graph has used a weekend to suggest numbers have dropped while that happens every weekend due to reporting difficulties.

 

[4LEX]

I think it is hard to commentate in near real time on these data because they are a bit wobbly, but in my opinion we are plateauing. Even if that is the case, that Dec 2 exit from lockdown looks rather dodgy, and I expect that a number of parts of the country will go into a tier which is barely distinguishable from the current situation.

NI has just announced another 2 weeks of firmer lockdown. That is what is needed here but we won't get that, so the faffing around with ineffectual semi-lockdowns is set to continue for some time.

Instead of a half baked 4-6 week semi lockdown, would a total 3 week lockdown have been more effective?

 

[Ethan]

Instead of a half baked 4-6 week semi lockdown, would a total 3 week lockdown have been more effective?

Don't know. You need to observe the data, which is why committing to a finish date at the outset is risky. And there is that up to 2 week lag between doing something stupid and actually getting Covid, and much of that stupid stuff happens the weekend or night before lockdown, so that timeline needs to play out before you really know where you might be going. Better to warn people that if they don't play ball, this will go on and on.

 

[Jamesbrown]

Oh, Are they. I just cut this from the ONS site:

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 10,887 in Week 44 (week ending 30 October 2020) to 11,812 in Week 45 (week ending 6 November 2020). The number of deaths was 14.3% above the five-year average (1,481 deaths higher).

In England, the number of deaths increased from 10,166 in Week 44 to 10,962 in Week 45, which was 1,287 deaths (13.3%) higher than the Week 45 five-year average.

In Wales, the number of deaths increased from 712 in Week 44 to 832 in Week 45, which was 207 deaths (33.1%) higher than the Week 45 five-year average"

10k odd deaths is normal per week, hits the higher end of 12k and up to 15k come the colder Months the odd week.

Time to get worried if it hits the pandemic numbers of 20-25k deaths per week in the two weeks of April though unlikely as care homes should be doing a stellar hygienic job now.

But if it hovers around 10-12k the next few months you should be pleased.

 

[BubbaP]

10k odd deaths is normal per week, hits the higher end of 12k and up to 15k come the colder Months the odd week.

Time to get worried if it hits the pandemic numbers of 20-25k deaths per week in the two weeks of April though unlikely as care homes should be doing a stellar hygienic job now.

But if it hovers around 10-12k the next few months you should be pleased.

Agree that the "excess deaths" is a sensible way to view things.

I'd suggest that trajectory is also important, not just the absolute numbers.

As always time is needed for trends to appear, but below is a view of the excess above the 5 year average


As you mention let's hope it doesn't go anywhere near the April & May 2020 numbers

 

[Ethan]

10k odd deaths is normal per week, hits the higher end of 12k and up to 15k come the colder Months the odd week.

Time to get worried if it hits the pandemic numbers of 20-25k deaths per week in the two weeks of April though unlikely as care homes should be doing a stellar hygienic job now.

But if it hovers around 10-12k the next few months you should be pleased.

I think tracking excess deaths on a week by week basis may be misleading. It is more helpful to look at a broader period of time and assess the real overall impact. There are displacement effects that have occurred that are not fully understood yet. Older people who died earlier can't die again when the were really due to do so originally.

The main question is whether there really are more Covid cases and deaths than there were a few weeks ago, and the answer is that there are.

 

[Tashyboy]

Don't know. You need to observe the data, which is why committing to a finish date at the outset is risky. And there is that up to 2 week lag between doing something stupid and actually getting Covid, and much of that stupid stuff happens the weekend or night before lockdown, so that timeline needs to play out before you really know where you might be going. Better to warn people that if they don't play ball, this will go on and on.

I thought it was odd putting a date on the lockdown esp when we would not know the numbers Re new cases and deaths. What I thought was even odder was not starting the lockdown half term weeks when the kids were off school, esp when we know one of of the highest transmission areas are schools.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I like the clarity and precision of the political analysis that Rachel Maddow presents - but she has been away for a bit and here‘s why...and it’s not political...her message resonated strongly with me. You need to listen past the 'hold on something's up' moment to get to her message about the virus and our individual behaviour.

 

[Ethan]

I thought it was odd putting a date on the lockdown esp when we would not know the numbers Re new cases and deaths. What I thought was even odder was not starting the lockdown half term weeks when the kids were off school, esp when we know one of of the highest transmission areas are schools.

They procrastinated too much, and in doing so left themselves without a window to get it done properly before Christmas. The root of this problem is the idea that it is either health outcomes OR the economy. In reality the two are inextricably bound and the economy will never rebound until the health issue is sorted. In my opinion, all those who opposed lockdown to help the economy actually achieved the opposite. They prolonged and deepened the damage to the economy.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Aint that the truth. Taken from sky news.

Supermarkets are the most frequent common exposure setting for those catching COVID-19 in England, new data suggests.

And there in lies the problem. The first lockdown, numbers were restricted in supermarkets, predominantly there was directions of aisles etc etc. Now it’s the same old same old. Supermarkets are normal. People go into supermarkets for a day out. The Friday big shop of the first lockdown where you got a weeks shopping, and I don’t mean panic buying. Well there’s more folk calling in for bits and bobs Now. Frustrating is an understatemen.

One of the local town centre supermarkets that we use has now reintroduced limiting of numbers and so the 'winter queueing' we dreaded is with us. But it makes for a much more controlled and 'safe' feeling shopping environment - though they are yet to reintroduce the 'one only from a couple/family' rule that was in place first time. We go in and get out as quickly as we can - just buying the items we have on our list - no browsing.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Well I'm significantly older than you and Christmas Day was a Bank Holiday in England long before the early 70's as was Boxing Day.

The latter was not in Scotland as Scots had New Years Day. From 1973, I believe, there was some form of unification.

However, I do agree that a Zoom Christmas is a price worth paying if we are to finally get on top of this virus.

My point being simply that Christmas Day has not always been the great get together hoopla of more recent years (decades perhaps). For very many it was a relatively quite simple but joyous intimate (closed) family celebration. And we can make it that this year.

 

[ColchesterFC]

One of the local town centre supermarkets that we use has now reintroduced limiting of numbers and so the 'winter queueing' we dreaded is with us. But it makes for a much more controlled and 'safe' feeling shopping environment - though they are yet to reintroduce the 'one only from a couple/family' rule that was in place first time. We go in and get out as quickly as we can - just buying the items we have on our list - no browsing.

One of the supermarkets (possibly Asda) is/was trialling a system where you message them when you arrive in the car park and then wait in your car. They will then message you back to say that you can enter the store. No queuing outside in the cold.

 

[SocketRocket]

10k odd deaths is normal per week, hits the higher end of 12k and up to 15k come the colder Months the odd week.

Time to get worried if it hits the pandemic numbers of 20-25k deaths per week in the two weeks of April though unlikely as care homes should be doing a stellar hygienic job now.

But if it hovers around 10-12k the next few months you should be pleased.

Deaths above the five year average has a clear and unambiguous meaning.

 

[AmandaJR]

David managed to walk the dogs with me this morning. Only a short walk but he felt ok and temperature has remained normal for a few days now. Phew...

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Am curious to where those numbers (& hence conclusions are coming from).
Don't seem to tally with
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I would look at the ONS or Zoe survey which is more both on day of specimen and pick up other cases(rather than report date and tests done on symptoms that Worldmeters do), both ONS/ZOE indicating a top of around the end of October/beginning of Nov(lets hope the trend keeps going down) :-

 

[BubbaP]

I would look at the ONS or Zoe survey which is more both on day of specimen and pick up other cases(rather than report date and tests done on symptoms that Worldmeters do), both ONS/ZOE indicating a top of around the end of October/beginning of Nov(lets hope the trend keeps going down) :-

View attachment 33627View attachment 33628

Thanks but it was this I was curious about:
"Deaths have also plateaued and gently declined from 4th November"

And see post 11,228.

Agree with - lets hope the cases trend goes down, and the other follows.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Thanks but it was this I was curious about:
"Deaths have also plateaued and gently declined from 4th November"

And see post 11,228.

Agree with - lets hope the cases trend goes down, and the other follows.

Oh sorry thought you may have been referring to cases, as the first bit of the post 11219 that you quoted refers to cases and wasn't sure if you follow the ONS and Zoe stuff, so thought I would mention it just in case you weren't aware of them. No worries.

Deaths will peak some time afterward(certainly not on 4/11) and we probably wont know that for a month at a guess, it is a really lagging figure. As I think it would be 14-20ish days after cases high in older people, so at a guess it probably has not quite peaked in what is currently being reported per day(and then clearly backdated to the death date, so it will be a while afterwards as some are reported over a week later in the figures, from when I briefly look at the figures going back to the 1st wave).

Admissions look like they are plateauing now and the total number of people in hospital will start dropping soon.

I don't follow deaths figures/charts, its a bit depressing

 

[BubbaP]

Aye, it is depressing. These are tough times.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

David managed to walk the dogs with me this morning. Only a short walk but he felt ok and temperature has remained normal for a few days now. Phew...

That is good news. I bet it wore him out though. Hopefully the fresh air will help

 

[Crazyface]

What's this "lock down" everyone's on about. I've not noticed it. Roads busy as ever. I'm at work. Wifes at work, in fact all staff who have been called back at wifes work after first "lock down" have not been sent home. B+M was utterly rammed yesterday in Leek. Not a space available on their car park and massive queues to get in....at B+M !!!!!!!! Just what do they have in their that makes it so necessary to stand in the rain to queue up to get in??????

Lock Down my bum!