Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Rooter

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Another prediction based on zero evidence meant to scare people.
How many times have we been told there's a new wave /spike/increase in covid cases on the way :confused:
I'm with Ethan, it's coming. How big and bad, no one knows, will it kill as many? maybe not? Could it actually be good for the wider community immunity longer term?

But on my weekly conference call last week with my team across Europe, all contacts were telling similar stories of consistent increases in new cases. Italy was the worst, New cases almost doubling daily. Average age of infected now 34.

Is this down to better/more testing? probably. Should we be being dismissive about it? I don't think so.

PS. I am just a muggle with an opinion.
 

Ethan

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I'm with Ethan, it's coming. How big and bad, no one knows, will it kill as many? maybe not? Could it actually be good for the wider community immunity longer term?

But on my weekly conference call last week with my team across Europe, all contacts were telling similar stories of consistent increases in new cases. Italy was the worst, New cases almost doubling daily. Average age of infected now 34.

Is this down to better/more testing? probably. Should we be being dismissive about it? I don't think so.

PS. I am just a muggle with an opinion.
You are a rare person indeed, then.

There may be a terminology issue. Is it a second wave, a spike or a continued rumbling number of cases which will go up and down with local or regional outbreaks? Who knows, and who cares. We do know that there is still a reservoir of disease in the population and a lot of older and vulnerable people who have not yet been exposed.

It may well be, and I suspect it is, that a growing proportion of the population is developing full or partial immunity through exposure or because of cross reactivity with other coronaviruses, but there are still plenty of possible cases left over.
 

HomerJSimpson

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Isolated doesn’t necessary mean only 1. Sporadic cases perhaps a better term. Don’t get me wrong, it’s going to get worse again, but probably not for a month or two.
On the plus side came in today and that patient is still the only one and they are potentially fit to discharge today. I do agree with you that the October date based on the data seems logical and we've put initial plans in for staffing/leave for end of September/October.
 

Ethan

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On the plus side came in today and that patient is still the only one and they are potentially fit to discharge today. I do agree with you that the October date based on the data seems logical and we've put initial plans in for staffing/leave for end of September/October.
It is the combination of cooler weather, more indoor activity, less UV light and the increasing incidence of other strains on the immune systems that make autumn and winter bad news. Covid is not likely to be as seasonal as flu per se, but it will take advantage of greater vulnerability and easier transmissibility.
 

Foxholer

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Another prediction based on zero evidence meant to scare people.
How many times have we been told there's a new wave /spike/increase in covid cases on the way :confused:
A tenner says there'll be at least 1 'new wave' of cases (spike implies time period is very short) across England before Christmas!
Up for it? If the parameters are too vague, I'd likely to be happy for you to define them.
Btw. People seem to need to be 'scared' into believing Covid is an ongoing threat! I know from, experience at work, that folk have got blaze about the threat. In spite of (or perhaps because of) a load of arguably OTT rules introduced, basic ones are being ignored/broken!+
 

GB72

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Trebling in 5 days is still an alarming increase!
Interesting article on Metro today through (not the most reliable of journalism but where is these days). Professor at Birmingham University stating that 91% of England have not had a new case in 4 weeks and that it is poor collection and use of the data that is producing these 'Spikes'. With the changes to the levels and focus of testing, I am looking more at hospital admissions and fatalities as the best indicator at the moment as a form of direct comparison to what has gone before.
 

Lord Tyrion

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Trebling in 5 days is still an alarming increase!
Whilst all deaths are troubling the rate there is not increasing in the same way as the new cases. Does this mean that hospitals are now better at treating patients with this? If large numbers can catch this but be largely unaffected that is a positive.

The first numbers quoted there are also infections, not necessarily hospital admissions, I think. Those numbers are not as worrying as in the early days when they would have been admissions.
 
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Ethan

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Whilst all deaths are troubling the rate there is not increasing in the same way as the new cases. Does this mean that hospitals are now better at treating patients with this? If large numbers can catch this but be largely unaffected that is a positive.

The first numbers quoted there are also infections, not necessarily hospital admissions, I think. Infections that are managed at home need not be terrifying.
To an extent. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Covid quickly cleared out a proportion of the most vulnerable, therefore the average death rate for the rest should drop a bit because the average "fitness" is better.

But it isn't all about deaths. There are a large number of people with residual complications ranging from lung damage, heart failure, kidney failure and other complications of the inflammatory nature of the disease. Chronic fatigue and neuropsychiatric problems are also seen. The idea initially that it either killed you or you would be fine after a week or two is now known to be wrong.
 

Lord Tyrion

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To an extent. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Covid quickly cleared out a proportion of the most vulnerable, therefore the average death rate for the rest should drop a bit because the average "fitness" is better.

But it isn't all about deaths. There are a large number of people with residual complications ranging from lung damage, heart failure, kidney failure and other complications of the inflammatory nature of the disease. Chronic fatigue and neuropsychiatric problems are also seen. The idea initially that it either killed you or you would be fine after a week or two is now known to be wrong.
I was trying to think of a nice way of of putting your first point but kept failing so left it out. You put it very well (y)

I take your point, second paragraph.
 

GB72

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To an extent. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Covid quickly cleared out a proportion of the most vulnerable, therefore the average death rate for the rest should drop a bit because the average "fitness" is better.

But it isn't all about deaths. There are a large number of people with residual complications ranging from lung damage, heart failure, kidney failure and other complications of the inflammatory nature of the disease. Chronic fatigue and neuropsychiatric problems are also seen. The idea initially that it either killed you or you would be fine after a week or two is now known to be wrong.
Honest question as I am clueless on this area. Would the sorts of cases detailed in your second paragraph necessarily be reflected in hospital admissions as these cases of covid would be serious enough to warrant that or are these instances of cases that are, in their general symptoms, minor enough to be treated by simply isolating at home and it is only later that the long term damage is found. Would any hospitalisations caused by the long term effects of covid be recorded as a covid admission or are they limited to people suffering from the more known respiratory issues.
 

Ethan

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Honest question as I am clueless on this area. Would the sorts of cases detailed in your second paragraph necessarily be reflected in hospital admissions as these cases of covid would be serious enough to warrant that or are these instances of cases that are, in their general symptoms, minor enough to be treated by simply isolating at home and it is only later that the long term damage is found. Would any hospitalisations caused by the long term effects of covid be recorded as a covid admission or are they limited to people suffering from the more known respiratory issues.
Some were hospital discharges who went home not 100% but expecting to fully recover and didn't, but there is definitely a set of late onset chronic complications that would not necessitate admission, ranging from chronic lung problems to psychiatric effects.
 

Rooter

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Aug 17...320 cases 4 deaths
Aug 18...401 5 deaths
Aug 19...642 7 deaths
Aug 20...840 6 deaths
Aug 21...947 9 deaths
Aug 22...1071 3 deaths
Aug 23...1209 7 deaths

So not doubling daily, not even almost
My apologies, took what my colleague said as the truth and I did not qualify, however, He MAY have been talking about Milan only as a possibility? Although it is still increasing at a decent rate..
 

Rooter

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But it isn't all about deaths. There are a large number of people with residual complications ranging from lung damage, heart failure, kidney failure and other complications of the inflammatory nature of the disease. Chronic fatigue and neuropsychiatric problems are also seen. The idea initially that it either killed you or you would be fine after a week or two is now known to be wrong.
People like me, who are immunosuppressed. I personally, don't really want to find out what COVID would do to me thanks, I am asthmatic with a chronic bowel disease (hence am on Immunosuppressants), however physically fitter than I would argue 95% of this forum, it would certainly be interesting how i would react!
 

pendodave

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Trebling in 5 days is still an alarming increase!
Lol. 3 to 9 would probably bring the country to a halt...despite it being less than 1% of all deaths for some weeks now.
Probably 10× more people died falling down stairs.
And as for aftereffects. While obviously a concern, I think the aftereffects of our current 'cure' for covid will outnumber them by several orders of magnitude.
 

Foxholer

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Lol. 3 to 9 would probably bring the country to a halt...despite it being less than 1% of all deaths for some weeks now.
Probably 10× more people died falling down stairs.
...
The 'trebling in 5 days' wasn't about deaths - which, if you'd bothered to read the quoted post properly, you should have seen!
It was 'cases' which have gone from90 401 to 1209 in 5 days!
If 1200+ (or even 400) dying/being hospitalised after falling downstairs would, I believe, be cause for considerable concern in most countries!
 
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