Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Swinglowandslow

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News today only one outbreak attributable to a nightclub since opening and that was in Lincoln.
Are you accepting as fact that nightclubs have been/ are the source of only one outbreak?
As it happens, last evening I learned that a mate on the south coast has reported his family have Covid. Told us that......his granddaughter went to a nightclub, caught it there, gave it to her parents and thence to other family .
Of course, proving that that was where his GD caught it , is not possible, because strictly speaking it cannot be proved where 99 per cent of people catch it.
 

Swinglowandslow

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How do you know most aren't vaccinated, is it your "inside man"? 😂
You really are a drain on this forum with your constant negativity.
So what do you want? Only nice facts? No "inconvenient truths"?
It is generally accepted that most under 30yr olds haven't been fully vaccinated, and a lot of 18-22 haven't had one dose.
So how is saying so a "negativity " to be criticised?
Would you prefer it to be able to say that most under 30yrs have been double dosed?
I wouldn't, because what would that mean about the efficacy of the protection it's meant to be offering if they had been double dosed. Because they are the age group where most of these infections are being found .
Now, that state of affairs would be a real negativity 😉
 

DRW

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and they probably have still done a lot better than the UK despite being very open through the pandemic
Per the dashboard we are 194.4 per 100,000, Florida 182.....

In USA, their record is, not as bad as alot would probably guess based on 'the science/political we must have harsh restrictions argument', Im not drawing conclusions as it is far to early to tell :-

• U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

At some time in the future, once this has settled down, there needs to be a proper grown up discussion about what works and what didn't and for what areas(probably by the generation that has been most affected by restrictions ie the younger generations). People who believe they currently have the answers now are kidding themselves, if is far to early to tell, its early in this virus, its going to be here for a long time..... We have so much to learn, just look at the way science attacked Sweden early on, when they followed the existing science.

People need to accept at the current state of play with imperfect vaccines/treatments and how contiguous this is, that the spread will continue, whether you vax everyone or head to a mix of vax/natural immunity(which is what is almost happening everywhere, exit strategy will be dangerous for the other countries). This will mean there is loads of spread, hospitalisations and deaths. The vaccines help to blunt the disease. We need better treatments and vaccines tbh, whether they come time will tell.

How long do you try to flatten the curve by massive restrictions based on cases.....At some time we have to start talking about increasing NHS capacity for a 2 to X year period as well, like grown up adults but that doesn't appear to be overly discussed, as we need the other services up and running like now, its mad not to. Zerocovid is just not going to happen in the UK for so many reasons.

We should all know by now, the sword is sharp on all sides.
 

Ethan

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Per the dashboard we are 194.4 per 100,000, Florida 182.....

In USA, their record is, not as bad as alot would probably guess based on 'the science/political we must have harsh restrictions argument', Im not drawing conclusions as it is far to early to tell :-

• U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

At some time in the future, once this has settled down, there needs to be a proper grown up discussion about what works and what didn't and for what areas(probably by the generation that has been most affected by restrictions ie the younger generations). People who believe they currently have the answers now are kidding themselves, if is far to early to tell, its early in this virus, its going to be here for a long time..... We have so much to learn, just look at the way science attacked Sweden early on, when they followed the existing science.

People need to accept at the current state of play with imperfect vaccines/treatments and how contiguous this is, that the spread will continue, whether you vax everyone or head to a mix of vax/natural immunity(which is what is almost happening everywhere, exit strategy will be dangerous for the other countries). This will mean there is loads of spread, hospitalisations and deaths. The vaccines help to blunt the disease. We need better treatments and vaccines tbh, whether they come time will tell.

How long do you try to flatten the curve by massive restrictions based on cases.....At some time we have to start talking about increasing NHS capacity for a 2 to X year period as well, like grown up adults but that doesn't appear to be overly discussed, as we need the other services up and running like now, its mad not to. Zerocovid is just not going to happen in the UK for so many reasons.

We should all know by now, the sword is sharp on all sides.
There is a lot to debate in there.

For a start, the headline numbers need to be unpacked. The excess deaths observed in FL are proportionately higher than in the UK, suggesting the number of official Covid deaths is an underestimate, possibly a considerable one.

Second, Florida also exported a lot of Covid to other states through people who travelled there.

Third, the vaccines may be imperfect, but they comfortably exceed the expectations and are the main plank of the response. They won't get "better" except when they are updated for new variants. Vaccination is highly effective, and right now the doubly vaccinated have a 90% lower chance of being hospitalised with Covid than the unvaccinated.

Fourth, spread is not inevitable. There are plenty of places, in Asia mostly, that have proven that you can control the spread of the virus. But you need good leadership and some courage, both of which are sadly lacking.

Fifth, social distancing, masks and other measures have clearly had an effect. That effect can also be seen on seasonal flu which is down 95%.

Sixth, increase NHS capacity? Are you insane? The Govt has been reducing bed numbers insidiously for years. They have no intention whatsoever to do the opposite because they only care about the next years budget. Same for PPE, ventilator numbers, you name it. Long term planning is of little political value.

Seventh, zerocovid is a straw man argument. Nobody expect Covid to be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced to a controllable level, and we are not there yet. It is still at a point where it could easily come back very strong and hard and undo all the good, if not great, work done so far. This is precisely the wrong time to ease off.
 
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drdel

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There is a lot to debate in there.

For a start, the headline numbers need to be unpacked. The excess deaths observed in FL are proportionately higher than in the UK, suggesting the number of official Covid deaths is an underestimate, possibly a considerable one.

Second, Florida also exported a lot of Covid to other states through people who travelled there.

Third, the vaccines may be imperfect, but they comfortably exceed the expectations and are the main plank of the response. They won't get "better" except when they are updated for new variants. Vaccination is highly effective, and right now the doubly vaccinated have a 90% lower chance of being hospitalised with Covid than the unvaccinated.

Fourth, spread is not inevitable. There are plenty of places, in Asia mostly, that have proven that you can control the spread of the virus. But you need good leadership and some courage, both of which are sadly lacking.

Fifth, social distancing, masks and other measures have clearly had an effect. That effect can also be seen on seasonal flu which is down 95%.

Sixth, increase NHS capacity? Are you insane? The Govt has been reducing bed numbers insidiously for years. They have no intention whatsoever to do the opposite because they only care about the next years budget. Same for PPE, ventilator numbers, you name it. Long term planning is of little political value.

Seventh, zerocovid is a straw man argument. Nobody expect Covid to be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced to a controllable level, and we are not there yet. It is still at a point where it could easily come back very strong and hard and undo all the good, if not great, work done so far. This is precisely the wrong time to ease off.
Plus the fact that the pop density in Florida is about half that of England.
 

DRW

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Ethan

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Plus the fact that the pop density in Florida is about half that of England.
Mmm, pop density is an over-rated factor, in my opinion. If the population was distributed evenly, it would matter more, but big empty spaces with no people in them reduce op density but make no difference to risk.

Oz and Canada have low pop density, but both have most of their op living along the southern border or coast and massive spaces in the north or centre. Sweden is the same.
 

Hobbit

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Mmm, pop density is an over-rated factor, in my opinion. If the population was distributed evenly, it would matter more, but big empty spaces with no people in them reduce op density but make no difference to risk.

Oz and Canada have low pop density, but both have most of their op living along the southern border or coast and massive spaces in the north or centre. Sweden is the same.
Very much agree with defining, and refining, just what is the pop density Per country and just how do they live. Many countries lean more towards apartment blocks and multi-generational living.

We’ve seen it a lot here in Spain. 3 generations in a house sees the young, mobile, generation going home every evening. And where Covid is taken home, it spreads quite quickly. It’s not only in one household as the relatively immobile, close Spanish families share it around aunts and uncles.
 
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drdel

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Mmm, pop density is an over-rated factor, in my opinion. If the population was distributed evenly, it would matter more, but big empty spaces with no people in them reduce op density but make no difference to risk.

Oz and Canada have low pop density, but both have most of their op living along the southern border or coast and massive spaces in the north or centre. Sweden is the same.
Of course you can drill down in the granularity eg. by conurbation and so on. I was just making a high level point.
 

larmen

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Florida is a weird one. You have a governor that wants the endorsement of the former president for his own run and has to go full anti-vaccine, and you have an population above average age because that’s ‘where people move to die’ (retire).
I don’t think any lesson can be taken from that place.
 

Hobbit

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Yet another visit to our nearest health centre to try and sort out why I’m not on the Spanish system for the jab. Took along a really good interpreter to catches any nuances I might have missed. Hallelujah, I’m on the system…. But…. Damn, I’m duplicated and won’t be called till the duplication is resolved, which can only be done with a personal visit to the regional office 50km away.

Booked an appointment there for 10am on Wednesday, along with an interpreter that works there. If I can come away from there with an AN(medical number) I can get a jab at the drop-in scheduled for Thursday about 15km away.

Everything crossed!!
A tentative “woo-hooo!”

Got a bit of a roasting from the regional admin for visiting their office. Apparently the local health centre could have sorted it with a phone call. The local office don’t even know what a brewery is!

Appointment for the jab received… 5:10pm Sunday.
 

Swinglowandslow

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The headlines on Sky news are putting out some stuff ( this lunchtime)so called from the Office of National Statistics,,which to me is puzzling.
It says that 'ONS figures show an estimated 1 in 75 people in England had Covid in the latest week'.
Three quarters of a million had Covid in the latest week?


Also PHE are saying that 'people with Delta variant have similar levels of the virus whether or not they have been vaccinated.'

So does that mean the vaccinated may be just as infectious as the non vaccinated, notwithstanding that they may not be nearly as ill from their infection?

Ethan, can you tell us please what your take is on this?
 
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IainP

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Believe these are the words:
"Estimates from the ONS survey suggest just over 810,000 people in the UK would test positive for coronavirus in the week to 31 July, down from 950,000 people the previous week.
This equates to 1.3% of the population – or one in 80 people. The week before it was 1.5% of the population, or one in 70 people."

Obviously be mindful of estimate & survey

They are giving a different view to absolute test cases. Would be interesting to see these kind of estimates from other countries.
 

Ethan

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The headlines on Sky news are putting out some stuff ( this lunchtime)so called from the Office of National Statistics,,which to me is puzzling.
It says that 'ONS figures show an estimated 1 in 75 people in England had Covid in the latest week'.
Three quarters of a million had Covid in the latest week?


Also PHE are saying that 'people with Delta variant have similar levels of the virus whether or not they have been vaccinated.'

So does that mean the vaccinated may be just as infectious as the non vaccinated, notwithstanding that they may not be nearly as ill from their infection?

Ethan, can you tell us please what your take is on this?
I have only seen the media coverage, so it seems they are saying that vaccinated people who become unwell with Covid have similar levels of virus on board that unvaccinated people who become ill.

However, it misses the slightly critical point that people who are vaccinated are much less likely to get infected in the first place. We already know that vaccinated people who are unlucky enough to get Covid can still transmit. It doesn't follow that similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people carry similar likelihoods of transmission. They may not. There is also a more subtle statistical issue. Let's assume that the vaccinated who get infected are the 'hard cases', i.e. the people whose immunity is weakest or who get the biggest dose of virus. That is not likely to be equally true for the unvaccinated who are a much broader group including regular average citizens with decent immunity. One would expect the vaccinated group to represent a subgroup who, without vaccination would get more severe infection and do worse. Therefore the fact their viral load is similar probably conceals part of the effect of vaccination, we would expect it to be much higher and similar to the load on the worst of the unvaccinated.

So the story could really be: If you are vaccinated, you are much less likely to get infected, but in the unlikely event you do, your viral load will be similar to the unvaccinated who were much more likely to get infected. You'll still do better clinically as well.
 

DRW

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ONS is a laggy survey and really a historical record, as it is recording a mix of now passed infections, some current infections and some older infections (some people wont be passing it on and so on). But great for giving you an ideal of how wide the spread is likely to be.


I would imagine you are referring to this one, SLSL ?, this guys quite good on Twitter generally (many others have posted about it on twitter and made different comments), but anyway :-

Andrew L. Croxford on Twitter: "🧵: Late to the Singapore viral load preprint party. I’ve seen diverse takes on what this means, with some expressing concerns that vaccinated and unvaccinated can transmit equally in the first week (No QTs). Don't agree. https://t.co/yryJdQRhGE" / Twitter

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study (medrxiv.org)


If you like to read all sides comments, here someone elses take(I personally love to read all sides and then use salt accordingly) :-

Dr Clare Craig on Twitter: "A positive with a Ct value of 50 is utterly meaningless. Remove those and there is no difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Why on earth were they included?" / Twitter



Again a slightly different outlook on a different data set :-

Paul Hunter on Twitter: "New dutch study on vaccine annd transmisison https://t.co/BT4epcTgDX If you have been vaccinated and still get COVID much less likely to infect an unvaccinated family member though not much impact on more casual contacts" / Twitter


And hows it going (which alot of professionals subscribe to and could post very similar links like this one below) :-

Paul Hunter on Twitter: "The 13rth report of REACT-1 study is probably the best estimate so far of vaccine effectiveness for infection (not just disease) in the real world. I hope in future reports they try to distinguish Pfizer from Oxford https://t.co/qSneqzWy2L" / Twitter

And whatever you do , don't look at the efficacy data coming our of Israel, Iceland etc, after a relative short period, that's a bit more negative. :( 3rd doses are already being administrated at a rate as a result I think(not really look at how they are doing on that side).

Stay thin, stay healthy, stay young(!!) and stay positive:)
 
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