Brexit Two Months On

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Spain making another play for Gibraltar i.e. if the UK leaves the EU then Gibraltar is out too, unless the UK accepts joint sovereignty with Spain.
 
I am really struggling to understand where we are supposed to be heading with the Brexit project. The impact on immigration when you've counted in all the exceptions that are being talked about is looking to be modest. Conversely, the adverse economic impact seems to be frighteningly difficult to quantify.
The fall in the pound might have been good for exporters if we had the manufacturing base of a Germany. As we haven't it isn't as it will drive up the cost of imports leading to inflation and an erosion of real incomes which will impact the poorest. I read that one of the biggest and most successful industries is the financial sector and the impact of Brexit in this area seems only to threaten a negative impact. Returning to the exports of goods, we have done very well in attracting inward investment from especially the Japanese. The Japanese government has already warned of their concerns and Nissan has halted further investment.
I have heard the argument that the EU will not want to apply tariffs to Uk goods as they will fear a similar treatment of their exports. I hope that the Brexit camp is right. However, the downside to the UK economy appears to huge compared to the upside of a smallish reduction in immigration and that nebulous recapturing of"sovereignty".
I would like to see a series of opinion polls between now and the Article 50 deadline. There were false fears and arguments peddled by both sides leading up to the vote.It would be foolish, whether through a misplaced sense of pride or through a narrow political self interest, to rule out any possibility of revisiting the question if it emerged that there had been a substantial change of heart.
 
hors limite said:
I am really struggling to understand where we are supposed to be heading with the Brexit project. The impact on immigration when you've counted in all the exceptions that are being talked about is looking to be modest. Conversely, the adverse economic impact seems to be frighteningly difficult to quantify.
The fall in the pound might have been good for exporters if we had the manufacturing base of a Germany. As we haven't it isn't as it will drive up the cost of imports leading to inflation and an erosion of real incomes which will impact the poorest. I read that one of the biggest and most successful industries is the financial sector and the impact of Brexit in this area seems only to threaten a negative impact. Returning to the exports of goods, we have done very well in attracting inward investment from especially the Japanese. The Japanese government has already warned of their concerns and Nissan has halted further investment.
I have heard the argument that the EU will not want to apply tariffs to Uk goods as they will fear a similar treatment of their exports. I hope that the Brexit camp is right. However, the downside to the UK economy appears to huge compared to the upside of a smallish reduction in immigration and that nebulous recapturing of"sovereignty".
I would like to see a series of opinion polls between now and the Article 50 deadline. There were false fears and arguments peddled by both sides leading up to the vote.It would be foolish, whether through a misplaced sense of pride or through a narrow political self interest, to rule out any possibility of revisiting the question if it emerged that there had been a substantial change of heart.
Click to expand...

Ach will you stop talking sense
 
hors limite said:
I am really struggling to understand where we are supposed to be heading with the Brexit project. The impact on immigration when you've counted in all the exceptions that are being talked about is looking to be modest. Conversely, the adverse economic impact seems to be frighteningly difficult to quantify.
The fall in the pound might have been good for exporters if we had the manufacturing base of a Germany. As we haven't it isn't as it will drive up the cost of imports leading to inflation and an erosion of real incomes which will impact the poorest. I read that one of the biggest and most successful industries is the financial sector and the impact of Brexit in this area seems only to threaten a negative impact. Returning to the exports of goods, we have done very well in attracting inward investment from especially the Japanese. The Japanese government has already warned of their concerns and Nissan has halted further investment.
I have heard the argument that the EU will not want to apply tariffs to Uk goods as they will fear a similar treatment of their exports. I hope that the Brexit camp is right. However, the downside to the UK economy appears to huge compared to the upside of a smallish reduction in immigration and that nebulous recapturing of"sovereignty".
I would like to see a series of opinion polls between now and the Article 50 deadline. There were false fears and arguments peddled by both sides leading up to the vote.It would be foolish, whether through a misplaced sense of pride or through a narrow political self interest, to rule out any possibility of revisiting the question if it emerged that there had been a substantial change of heart.
Click to expand...

blue touch paper ignited ..... all fair points but not open for discussion because the imaginary benefits out weigh them conclusively.
 
hors limite said:
I would like to see a series of opinion polls between now and the Article 50 deadline. There were false fears and arguments peddled by both sides leading up to the vote.It would be foolish, whether through a misplaced sense of pride or through a narrow political self interest, to rule out any possibility of revisiting the question if it emerged that there had been a substantial change of heart.
Click to expand...

While I agree with much of your post what would constitute a "substantial change of heart"? And would we be basing that purely on opinion polls which got it massively wrong before the last general election and the referendum?

If we were to hold a second referendum and this time the result was to remain in the EU would we simply be able to carry on with the deal we have now as we haven't yet triggered Article 50? If it was held after that point would we have to apply to rejoin rather than remain as we had triggered the process of leaving? And would there then be calls for a 3rd and deciding referendum as to whether the terms of us rejoining were acceptable?
 
So looks like the media lapped up the Unilever-Marmite-Tesco story and if you think this was a issue for multinationals giants then here is anecdote that I hadn't thought about before.
Visiting the farmer markets and the guys are feeling the impact. They think that they won't find east Europeans to pick fruits and veg or pay double the rate to find 'locals' who they can't find anyways. So they will either have to double the rates they charge customers and therefore drive away customers or they reduce their production.. this bres*it is hitting everyone....
 
vkurup said:
So looks like the media lapped up the Unilever-Marmite-Tesco story and if you think this was a issue for multinationals giants then here is anecdote that I hadn't thought about before.
Visiting the farmer markets and the guys are feeling the impact. They think that they won't find east Europeans to pick fruits and veg or pay double the rate to find 'locals' who they can't find anyways. So they will either have to double the rates they charge customers and therefore drive away customers or they reduce their production.. this bres*it is hitting everyone....
Click to expand...

Bit of a double edged sword this one. The unions, and half of Labour, have complained many times about the imported labour driving down wages in this sector, and in other industries too.
 
ColchesterFC said:
While I agree with much of your post what would constitute a "substantial change of heart"? And would we be basing that purely on opinion polls which got it massively wrong before the last general election and the referendum?

If we were to hold a second referendum and this time the result was to remain in the EU would we simply be able to carry on with the deal we have now as we haven't yet triggered Article 50? If it was held after that point would we have to apply to rejoin rather than remain as we had triggered the process of leaving? And would there then be calls for a 3rd and deciding referendum as to whether the terms of us rejoining were acceptable?
Click to expand...

Good points.
I am relatively agnostic to whichever direction the country goes, but would want it to be done with full commitment.
So either fully commit to EU, closer ties, the Euro, the whole shebang
Or leave.
Just trying for some partial status quo whilst it may have felt familiar and comfortable doesn't feel like a strategy
 
IainP said:
Good points.
I am relatively agnostic to whichever direction the country goes, but would want it to be done with full commitment.
So either fully commit to EU, closer ties, the Euro, the whole shebang
Or leave.
Just trying for some partial status quo whilst it may have felt familiar and comfortable doesn't feel like a strategy
Click to expand...

there lies the problem, what did the brexiteers vote for "hard" exit or a connected exit ... I don't think a connected exit is impossible but it would require diplomacy of the highest order.
My ideal solution is the EU becomes /goes back to its routes and concentrates on its trade partnerships. It was worrying that it was growing and having paper economies join it which were always going to be a liability. I have no issues with the redistribution of wealth amongst the members if they have met the financial requirements (Greece never did and there are a few more) .
I don't really understand how immigration will be changed if we exit. We always had our border controls and those EU migrants are skilled labour so where is the difference ? Should we exit the commonwealth as well, we get a shed load of them over .....? Oh that might not be PC.
 
harpo_72 said:
there lies the problem, what did the brexiteers vote for "hard" exit or a connected exit ... I don't think a connected exit is impossible but it would require diplomacy of the highest order.
My ideal solution is the EU becomes /goes back to its routes and concentrates on its trade partnerships. It was worrying that it was growing and having paper economies join it which were always going to be a liability. I have no issues with the redistribution of wealth amongst the members if they have met the financial requirements (Greece never did and there are a few more) .
I don't really understand how immigration will be changed if we exit. We always had our border controls and those EU migrants are skilled labour so where is the difference ? Should we exit the commonwealth as well, we get a shed load of them over .....? Oh that might not be PC.
Click to expand...

I don't really like the catchwords (would UKexit have been more accurate?).
As has been said before the referendum didn't have multiple options so we'll never know.
Could easily ask the other way around using the catchwords -
Were the"remainers" voting for the partial status quo, or full on EU?
 
harpo_72 said:
there lies the problem, what did the brexiteers vote for "hard" exit or a connected exit ... I don't think a connected exit is impossible but it would require diplomacy of the highest order.
My ideal solution is the EU becomes /goes back to its routes and concentrates on its trade partnerships. It was worrying that it was growing and having paper economies join it which were always going to be a liability. I have no issues with the redistribution of wealth amongst the members if they have met the financial requirements (Greece never did and there are a few more) .
I don't really understand how immigration will be changed if we exit. We always had our border controls and those EU migrants are skilled labour so where is the difference ? Should we exit the commonwealth as well, we get a shed load of them over .....? Oh that might not be PC.
Click to expand...

Excellent post.

Immigration will almost certainly continue as is. Who will pick the crops? Where do we suddenly get xxx medical staff from? Where is the next plumber?

The immigration issue that needs addressing, and that's right across the EU, are those coming from outside the EU.

Many of the issues in the U.K. are of our own (fumbling) making. Even something simple like why do teachers have to work on average 7 hours a week longer than their European counterparts?
 
IainP said:
I don't really like the catchwords (would UKexit have been more accurate?).
As has been said before the referendum didn't have multiple options so we'll never know.
Could easily ask the other way around using the catchwords -
Were the"remainers" voting for the partial status quo, or full on EU?
Click to expand...
True ... it was farcical on all counts. Irrespective of personal politics neither side made a cohesive argument.
 
hors limite said:
I am really struggling to understand where we are supposed to be heading with the Brexit project. The impact on immigration when you've counted in all the exceptions that are being talked about is looking to be modest. Conversely, the adverse economic impact seems to be frighteningly difficult to quantify.
The fall in the pound might have been good for exporters if we had the manufacturing base of a Germany. As we haven't it isn't as it will drive up the cost of imports leading to inflation and an erosion of real incomes which will impact the poorest. I read that one of the biggest and most successful industries is the financial sector and the impact of Brexit in this area seems only to threaten a negative impact. Returning to the exports of goods, we have done very well in attracting inward investment from especially the Japanese. The Japanese government has already warned of their concerns and Nissan has halted further investment.
I have heard the argument that the EU will not want to apply tariffs to Uk goods as they will fear a similar treatment of their exports. I hope that the Brexit camp is right. However, the downside to the UK economy appears to huge compared to the upside of a smallish reduction in immigration and that nebulous recapturing of"sovereignty".
I would like to see a series of opinion polls between now and the Article 50 deadline. There were false fears and arguments peddled by both sides leading up to the vote.It would be foolish, whether through a misplaced sense of pride or through a narrow political self interest, to rule out any possibility of revisiting the question if it emerged that there had been a substantial change of heart.
Click to expand...

Reported to Mods for talking too much sense..
 
vkurup said:
So looks like the media lapped up the Unilever-Marmite-Tesco story and if you think this was a issue for multinationals giants then here is anecdote that I hadn't thought about before.
Visiting the farmer markets and the guys are feeling the impact. They think that they won't find east Europeans to pick fruits and veg or pay double the rate to find 'locals' who they can't find anyways. So they will either have to double the rates they charge customers and therefore drive away customers or they reduce their production.. this bres*it is hitting everyone....
Click to expand...
No one who speaks with a modicum of sense has suggested that we stop immigration, the issue for people was controlling it. While members of the EU we have no control, it's not just about plumbers, doctors and engineers, the issue for many is the unfettered open border where limitless people with or without skills have a right to reside in the UK and with the same benefits as citizens. I think we all know this was the issue but many seem to want to ignore it. If the EU would have offered Cameron a modicum of control rather than a slap in the face then Brexit would have failed. Thinking about it, picking fruit is not a new thing, our farmers have picked their fruit for time immemorial, how did they manage in the past? I cant remember all these people from the EU over here.

Farmers will still be able to employ people from abroad to work in their fields, the only difference would be is that they would need a work visa giving them a temporary right of residence.
 
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