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Brexit - The negotiations.

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SocketRocket said:
Just a thought, if there is a sharing of Covid costs in the EU we may be a net recipient.
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Germany is complaining as it thinks they will be firmly on the hook. I guess that means there would be very little chance the UK would see a penny. Don't forget they are still after the 'settlement'.
 
Hobbit said:
If the predictions are correct, there's 2 years worth of 4-6 waves of virus due. Bearing in mind there may, as you suggest, be less businesses around in a year's time where do you suggest the UK govt gets the money from to pay all the extra EU payments that will fall due?

I favour looking at a short extension but I'm very mindful of the new EU budget due on Jan 1st, the exit payments that are due now(we've already left), and the money the EU will be chasing to support the extra debt it has taken on board due to this crisis.

Gut feel; I don't know the right answer on whether or not the Dec 31st deadline should be cast in stone. But here's a thought that might be relevant; I wonder how many Civil Servants have been taken off their day job because of Covid19, or are there more Civil Servants available for the negotiations?
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I favour a short extension also - that's actually all I am thinking might be useful for business ... I am sure our negotiators can get something agreed with the EU that will not cost the UK (much at all?) as the EU will be keen to get some sort of deal...
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Well I might draw the conclusion from what you post that you don’t really care if businesses really struggle to prepare for a No Deal exit end of dec if that’s what our gov calls in July. But I might be mistaken.

Do we not worry about the impact a second wave of the virus hitting us in October might have on business ability to prepare? If I were a government risk manager I’d be looking to advise ministers on mitigating the risk to business of such a second wave...
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Business needs certainty which is what the law has provided. Waiting until Oct or thereabouts before running about like headless chicken would be a disaster. The strategy for the virus will be fairly clear by July but it will still have some uncertainty: life and economics must and will go on.

I am sure there will some details that both parties may wish to ratify after Dec and there is nothing preventing that.
 
bluewolf said:
Depending on your point of view, that's either pointless sabre rattling designed to appeal solely to the UK Public, or a Lion roaring and marking it's territory.. Only one point of view can be majority correct, and there is absolutely zero chance of getting people on this forum to agree on which it is......
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What is disappointing, if true, is that Barnier said in a briefing a few weeks back that they were still waiting on the legal text detailing the agreement the UK were wanting. Frost and his team immediately issued a copy of the text, saying that it was what the EU had already received. And now there's the letter, which goes over Barnier's head to the heads of state.

I get the feeling the EU is playing hard ball, and a hint of paranoia might suggest their offer is so poor its either punishment or a last gasp push for the UK not go their own way.

What hasn't been mentioned in the thread is the court case the EU are taking out against the UK for previous breaches of rules dating back to Cameron's time. Are the EU that desperate for money they're trying anything and everything.
 
I will of course see things through anti-Brexit glasses - even though I know that we ARE leaving - we should be looking to mitigate the risks brought about by the coronavirus

However I get the impression listening to ministers and Tory MPs who were major proponents of Brexit that Brexit is happening in it's own little self-contained world - with thinking impervious to what's actually happening in the world today - with coronavirus and the impact it will have on world trade; the insanity that is Trump; and thoughts on revisiting our future relationship with China...

I hear insistence from some that - no matter what - we will happily walk away from the EU - all 22miles away from us that it is - without a deal to trade on WTO terms with, for instance, no idea of the costs and volumes of air freight in the near future. It also seems we are not that bothered about the impact on the NHS and our low paid service industries of loss of freedom of movement to and across the EU - especially for the lowest paid unskilled as well as the lower-paid skilled workers our NHS and care sector requires to keep functioning and also the impact on our own youth - yes it works both ways but with employment opportunities for our youth looking to be be at high risk of dropping significantly in the UK then access to the widest employment market is surely desirable.

No - we are leaving end of this year and that is that. There can be no extension to see what the world looks like in 2021 so we can work out with the EU what would be best for the UK and best for the EU - for at the moment I suspect that neither of us really know. No - the public spoke and that is that. What does the public feel today?Well I think that the polls are saying that it wants a delay...or does the will of the people not always matter when it doesn't suit those few.

I wish I could at least hear some recognition, acceptance and admission that the world today is not the same world as that of June 2016.

Yes I know the 'lets get all the bad stuff done now in one fell swoop' and 'well our youth can do the jobs of those EU citizens not coming here'; 'well there won't be jobs across the EU in any case so no big loss there for our youth and more willingly mobile'

Yes I know. But I did say I will tend to see things mostly from a certain viewpoint :)
 
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My concern Hugh is the financial bill staying in the EU will bring. The QE the EU ran up in recent years is massive, but the money spent in the last few months is doubly massive. And we know the net receivers in the EU are demanding the net givers pay their C19 bill.

There was an imbalance previously but going forward it would further cripple the U.K.

Reluctantly, leave, and leave as per the schedule. However, if the EU state that anything spent since Jan 1st will not be added to the current bill, a short extension.
 
Hobbit said:
My concern Hugh is the financial bill staying in the EU will bring. The QE the EU ran up in recent years is massive, but the money spent in the last few months is doubly massive. And we know the net receivers in the EU are demanding the net givers pay their C19 bill.

There was an imbalance previously but going forward it would further cripple the U.K.

Reluctantly, leave, and leave as per the schedule. However, if the EU state that anything spent since Jan 1st will not be added to the current bill, a short extension.
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Can't see any sort of extension happening. We are leaving in any case - that ship has sailed. Whatever approach minimises further economic damage and maximises the shrunken and further shrinking opportunities for our youth.

I'd just like to think that behind the Great British-Brexit-Bluster I hear that there is some sort of consideration being made of the current circumstances and what next for world trade, before we make things more complex and expensive both to trade with our nearest neighbours, and for the workforce we need to come from the EU.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Can't see any sort of extension happening. We are leaving in any case - that ship has sailed. Whatever approach minimises further economic damage and maximises the shrunken and further shrinking opportunities for our youth.

I'd just like to think that behind the Great British-Brexit-Bluster I hear that there is some sort of consideration being made of the current circumstances and what next for world trade, before we make things more complex and expensive both to trade with our nearest neighbours, and for the workforce we need to come from the EU.
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With an expected rise in unemployment to over 3,000,000 and a vastly smaller world market for a good few years + the debt that the EU has... it couldn't be a better time to leave.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Can't see any sort of extension happening. We are leaving in any case - that ship has sailed. Whatever approach minimises further economic damage and maximises the shrunken and further shrinking opportunities for our youth.

I'd just like to think that behind the Great British-Brexit-Bluster I hear that there is some sort of consideration being made of the current circumstances and what next for world trade, before we make things more complex and expensive both to trade with our nearest neighbours, and for the workforce we need to come from the EU.
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A little correction to your post. Weve left the EU already.
 
bluewolf said:
Depending on your point of view, that's either pointless sabre rattling designed to appeal solely to the UK Public, or a Lion roaring and marking it's territory.. Only one point of view can be majority correct, and there is absolutely zero chance of getting people on this forum to agree on which it is......
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I do dislike these war like analogies ?

Maybe its neither of those excesses, maybe it's the UK trying desperately to get a reasonable settlement that is fair to both parties on the table.
 
Germany relies heavily on car sales and other engineering exports, many to eu members via grants. Members arent buying anything, cars sales down by around 90%.

Brussels expects Germany to pick up most of the covid debt, paying with what ones wonders?
 
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