Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

BoJo to seek a ten day Brexit 'technical' extension past 31/10?

BoJo earlier on extending for WAB scrutiny - No Way Jose
#10 realisation - Ten Day Jose

?

 

[SocketRocket]

When May first went to the EU to begin negotiations they offered up the arrangement of the backstop being in the Irish sea. The idea was rejected by May on the grounds it was unpalatable to her partners in the Democratic Unionist party, on which she relied for her working majority. At the time, she said “no British prime minister” could accept a regulatory border being drawn in the Irish Sea. They said it was undemocratic and unconstitutional and would place a tariff border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. And Boris has done effectively that.

Thats not correct. Under the new arrangements NI will leave the Customs Union the same as the rest of the UK. Some special arrangements will be made to allow certain goods to be in a regulatory arrangement with The ROI , I think its food and Industrial goods by memory. This was not the deal in the May arrangement, under that they originally wanted only NI to be in the backstop and May suggested it should apply to the whole of the UK.

 

[Taz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1186675877276467205

 

[Mudball]

Thats not correct. Under the new arrangements NI will leave the Customs Union the same as the rest of the UK. Some special arrangements will be made to allow certain goods to be in a regulatory arrangement with The ROI , I think its food and Industrial goods by memory. This was not the deal in the May arrangement, under that they originally wanted only NI to be in the backstop and May suggested it should apply to the whole of the UK.

So for trade purposes, NI is not part of UK anymore. They will follow the EU regulations NOT UK. Duties have to be paid during for movement of goods from GB to NI - this will be reimbursed if the goods dont move further South. So back to the point that NI is devolved from a Trade perspective. The backstop just moved further into the Irish Sea.. or have i got this wrong?

 

[Taz]

Harry Yorke

@HarryYorke1
·
31m

John Mann chuckling away in the background as Anna Soubry says a general election "will solve nothing". "It would get rid of you," he quips.

 

[Mudball]

I must admit, i hadnt read this document before.. Govt's analysis/modelling of the post-Brexit scenario. It assumes that long term Brexit will be a success.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

However, in every scenario it says we will be worse off for 15 years and real wages being depressed. This was written in Nov last year. Given BoJo = TMay - Backstop, these scenarios still apply along with the fact that NI is 'trade devolved' and we continue to pay Brussels for a long time and end FoM..

PS: I am sure someone will come along and say we have a lot of experts and that no Govt Dept ever got its forecast correct

 

[robinthehood]

I must admit, i hadnt read this document before.. Govt's analysis/modelling of the post-Brexit scenario. It assumes that long term Brexit will be a success.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

However, in every scenario it says we will be worse off for 15 years and real wages being depressed. This was written in Nov last year. Given BoJo = TMay - Backstop, these scenarios still apply along with the fact that NI is 'trade devolved' and we continue to pay Brussels for a long time and end FoM..

PS: I am sure someone will come along and say we have a lot of experts and that no Govt Dept ever got its forecast correct

Just file it under project fear 😂😉

 

[Hobbit]

I must admit, i hadnt read this document before.. Govt's analysis/modelling of the post-Brexit scenario. It assumes that long term Brexit will be a success.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

However, in every scenario it says we will be worse off for 15 years and real wages being depressed. This was written in Nov last year. Given BoJo = TMay - Backstop, these scenarios still apply along with the fact that NI is 'trade devolved' and we continue to pay Brussels for a long time and end FoM..

PS: I am sure someone will come along and say we have a lot of experts and that no Govt Dept ever got its forecast correct

Oh go on then. "No govt dept ever gets its forecast correct."

TBH, I haven't got a clue how it will go, assuming Brexit does happen. One thing's for sure, the UK will be worse off from D-day. Quite how long that will last, who knows. Bearing in mind the Gov of the BoE has apologised for getting a forecast wrong I wouldn't say anything either way --- he's an expert, I'm not.

 

[harpo_72]

I think you may be mixing up stuff. The WA is just about process; the 'transition' period is when the financial and other mechanisms will be planned which will generate the impact assessments.

Perhaps or perhaps not the WA needs to have greater details and a consolidated position on certain key items otherwise we will be having ongoing discussions.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1186675877276467205

If they are all leavers ... there isn't very many of them !!

 

[harpo_72]

Virtually everything in that post is completely irrelevant!

Says you ... and your getting a little worked up in other posts.
You may think your standing on the fence of common sense but certain arguments have lacked facts to make a discussion. There is nothing sensible about any of this, right from DC calling for it .. he should have had an internal Tory party vote at some conference to see the lay of the land before getting the great unwashed involved! Just remember that the Tory party made this country implode, no one else, they just discussed it freely as they are allowed to do.

 

[Mudball]

Yippee... i was right... It would get the HoC...
it is a numbers game that is run by 'winners' v 'losers' rather than principles and ethics. So it sailed thru. A few more days and we can leave the EU and NI..

All the MPs care for is to keep their jobs as long as possible and therefore avoid a GE. Well played by DomCum

 

[Deleted member 18645]

Angela Eagle saying that bringing back the same Brexit vote in Parliament hoping for a different result was insulting to everyone involved.
Angela Eagle supports a second referendum on Brexit.

Definitely an early leader for the 2019 Pot Kettle Award

 

[ger147]

Another dead end in the HoC's tonight...

 

[Deleted member 15344]

So have I got this right

Boris Johnson made the declaration that we will leave on 31st Oct

He has agreed a deal with the EU ( as did May ) - who knows if it’s better or worse than the May deal and if it’s worse than actually staying in the EU , on the first point it seems the deal is worse especially for NI

So it seems he is trying everything in his power to get this deal done by 31st Oct - he has been forced to ask for a delay but did it in a childish way , he is trying to force this deal through but the timetable has been rejected , he says they must now prepare for No Deal

So my questions are

Is Johnson trying to get this deal through because it’s a superb deal and it’s best for the UK but he still believes in No Deal

Or is it all about saving face - he stated we would leave by 31st October and if we don’t then it’s going to look very embarrassing for him

Is it time for a politician to swallow some pride and just do what they think is best for the UK and not for themselves

Has Johnson realised that leaving the EU wasn’t as easy as claimed and he is trying to just get it done regardless of the consequences

But once again this just confirms to me what a complete and utter embarrassment our government must be to the outside world - I bet they can’t wait to take advantage of us

 

[Swinglowandslow]

BoJo in the House is telling us that if his Deal is voted down or amended then he's pulling it and GE here way come. Not sure how he'll engineer that but I'm sure he has a Cumming Plan.

Well, as I understand it,if the vote goes against him, and ( as remainers
and you anti BJ types want,) there is an extension granted by the EU, then Corbyn has said he will welcome a GE.
However, if Corbyn goes back on that, and they all want to hang on to their jobs and will not vote a GE, then BJ may have to resign as PM.
And gamble that the HoC will not tolerate an administration headed by Corbyn.
If Corbyn cannot govern, then GE it is.
One thing is sure.Neither BJ or any prime minister can govern with the numbers he commands now, so something has to change. Certainly when being against him is predicated more on animosity against his character than his policy, as is the reality in your case, I suspect.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

WAB passes 2nd Reading. Fine. 2-3 days for HoC scrutiny. Rejected. What a surprise. Legislation paused but not pulled. Not sure the point of doing that given scrutiny could now start and pace of that could inform estimates of timescales that might be required to complete HoC scrutiny before being passed to the Lords. Dunno. Possibly a ploy to blame the EU for delay in start of HoC scrutiny given they are unlikely to give their view tonight.

Though I note no mention by Johnson in his initial response of leaving on 31/10. Edit - weird - he did.

 

[Hobbit]

If you want a bit of honesty then turn your head in the direction of Letwin, Benn, Grieves, Corbyn, McDonnell and their shabby bunch of cronies and question their motives.

You are correct that many people don't want the previous vote overturned, why the hell should they, it hasn't been enacted yet. Your view reeks of 'entitlement' one that says 'I didnt get my way so I'll scream and scream untill im sick'

I'll agree with you on Corbyn and McDonnell. For me, the jury is out for Letwin. Benn has been nothing other honest with what he wants all the way through.

The jury is no longer out for Letwin. After having his amendment voted through, and then saying on the Andrew Marr show he would vote for Boris' deal - he was very clear about it, he voted against it tonight.

 

[Deleted member 21784]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1186717198322147328

 

[ger147]

The jury is no longer out for Letwin. After having his amendment voted through, and then saying on the Andrew Marr show he would vote for Boris' deal - he was very clear about it, he voted against it tonight.

Not true - he voted in favour of passing the bill, he voted No to the timetable motion.

 

[Hobbit]

Not true - he voted in favour of passing the bill, he voted No to the timetable motion.

Cheers... I missed that.