Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!

[harpo_72]

Not quite! The REAL reason was that she could see she didn't have the numbers to get Leave legislation through! She needed to increase her majority!

But she did not get it and the leave voters disappeared into the wood work leaving you to question whether they have a majority of 1.6 million that keeps being rolled out.
Hence a General election fought on the leave no deal, leave with a deal and remain will probably course a 3 way axis but we will see the majorities and the legislation for all irrespective of the winners will go through smoother ...
I also think Corbyn though maligned is right to ask for a second referendum, because it guides him to select the correct party manifesto and either remove or convince those who disagree .. Boris would benefit as well, although I don't think he is clever enough to realise this and the Libs will see if they really have any mileage at all.

In reality leaving is okay, if there is a credible benefit short term and long term and the plan is laid out .. if its as good as remaining then let's fill our boots.
However we are nowhere near hard facts, a plan and road map to a positive outcome... if we get that I am sure the house will be less divided and the country will come together.

 

[drdel]

BoJo in the House is telling us that if his Deal is voted down or amended then he's pulling it and GE here way come. Not sure how he'll engineer that but I'm sure he has a Cumming Plan.

I wonder what your solution would be.
Barnier has restated that its this deal or no deal even with a possible short 'technical' extension. So given Barnier's declaration and if the HoC won't entertain progressing the WA what point would there be for the PM to try and continue without a majority. So surely its best, under such circumstances, to push for a GE as soon as practical.

 

[harpo_72]

I can't speak for pauljames, but he may well be implying the deal negotiated by Boris is effectively the same deal that was offered to us by the EU, which May rejected due to the annexing of NI and she progressed with the backstop for the whole of the UK.

My understanding was the NI elements were different and it looks like he conceded fishing rights as well, plus some other bits about negotiating deals with other markets

 

[drdel]

But she did not get it and the leave voters disappeared into the wood work leaving you to question whether they have a majority of 1.6 million that keeps being rolled out.
Hence a General election fought on the leave no deal, leave with a deal and remain will probably course a 3 way axis but we will see the majorities and the legislation for all irrespective of the winners will go through smoother ...
I also think Corbyn though maligned is right to ask for a second referendum, because it guides him to select the correct party manifesto and either remove or convince those who disagree .. Boris would benefit as well, although I don't think he is clever enough to realise this and the Libs will see if they really have any mileage at all.

In reality leaving is okay, if there is a credible benefit short term and long term and the plan is laid out .. if its as good as remaining then let's fill our boots.
However we are nowhere near hard facts, a plan and road map to a positive outcome... if we get that I am sure the house will be less divided and the country will come together.

I think you may be mixing up stuff. The WA is just about process; the 'transition' period is when the financial and other mechanisms will be planned which will generate the impact assessments.

 

[SocketRocket]

SILH has posted some rubbish on here and doesn’t realise at times when he is being insulting to others - some are happy to point that out to him but when you challenge those people - denial - for me they are hypocrites and Socketrocket is the Leave version of SILH - their single minded arrogance has caused most of the issues on this thread but coming from different sides of the fence. And the country has loads of them from both sides which as you say has driven a wedge

You are entitled to think that but I dont suggest those that voted Remain are stupid or unentitled to their views, I simply counter posts that I disagree with. You on the other hand are constantly posting on here that those that want to leave or are happy with a no deal are selfish, they dont care about the havoc and unemployment they want to bring to the country, you also keep harping on about how the referendum vote was not a majority of the country so is not a fair outcome, this along with your sanctimonious whinging and irony is often juvenile and without reasoning. Check yourself out before pointing the finger at others.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I wonder what your solution would be.
Barnier has restated that its this deal or no deal even with a possible short 'technical' extension. So given Barnier's declaration and if the HoC won't entertain progressing the WA what point would there be for the PM to try and continue without a majority. So surely its best, under such circumstances, to push for a GE as soon as practical.

I guess it is. Though given BoJo's ability to open the unopenable - well he might succeed again if he tried.

But assuming Barnier holds to his statement, will BoJo campaign on his Deal or a No Deal? And there's the risk the opposition run. No Deal for many is unconscionable - so why run the risk of BoJo campaigning on that basis to shut out Farage.

If BoJo guaranteed that the Conservative Party manifesto would exclude leaving on No Deal (what's the point of that as a negotiating ploy if you believe Barnier that the negotiating is done), and that the Conservative Party offer on Brexit is the current deal - then OK. We might well have the basis for a GE being triggered.

 

[Foxholer]

But she did not get it and the leave voters disappeared into the wood work leaving you to question whether they have a majority of 1.6 million that keeps being rolled out.
Hence a General election fought on the leave no deal, leave with a deal and remain will probably course a 3 way axis but we will see the majorities and the legislation for all irrespective of the winners will go through smoother ...
I also think Corbyn though maligned is right to ask for a second referendum, because it guides him to select the correct party manifesto and either remove or convince those who disagree .. Boris would benefit as well, although I don't think he is clever enough to realise this and the Libs will see if they really have any mileage at all.

In reality leaving is okay, if there is a credible benefit short term and long term and the plan is laid out .. if its as good as remaining then let's fill our boots.
However we are nowhere near hard facts, a plan and road map to a positive outcome... if we get that I am sure the house will be less divided and the country will come together.

Virtually everything in that post is completely irrelevant!

 

[Deleted member 15344]

You are entitled to think that but I dont suggest those that voted Remain are stupid or unentitled to their views, I simply counter posts that I disagree with. You on the other hand are constantly posting on here that those that want to leave or are happy with a no deal are selfish, they dont care about the havoc and unemployment they want to bring to the country, you also keep harping on about how the referendum vote was not a majority of the country so is not a fair outcome, this along with your sanctimonious whinging and irony is often juvenile and without reasoning. Check yourself out before pointing the finger at others.

I’ll challenge you to find one single post where I have stated that the result was not a “fair outcome”.

I also have not stated that the referendum vote was not the majority of the country - I just stated a fact that is was the “majority of the people who voted “ as opposed to the majority of the country ( which people has stated a number of times )

Both you and SILH ruined any sensible discussion that could be had on this thread a long time ago - I believe both of you at one stage requested to stop posting on here ? I think that was the time when a lot more sensible debate was had and people were able to gain more information from each other.

Just go back through the thread and see it being dominated by both of you - SILH posts paragraph after paragraph - the next post is you responded with the same manner you do now to anyone who has dared to vote in a different way to you.

 

[Deleted member 21784]

1. It's not the same deal - by a long shot
2. Then you go and conrtradict yourself!

But he's shown, to me, that he's a buffoon many times!

Mays deal is not the same deal

The deal Boris has fought for is the deal the EU offered us as soon as we voted leave

Mays deal was ' negotiated' to 'win' things

 

[Foxholer]

I can't speak for pauljames, but he may well be implying the deal negotiated by Boris is effectively the same deal that was offered to us by the EU, which May rejected due to the annexing of NI and she progressed with the backstop for the whole of the UK.

The arrangements about NI clearly differentiate BoJo's from May's. I can't remember any suggestion that NI was being 'annexed' during May's negotiations...Please elucidate.

 

[Foxholer]

I wonder what your solution would be.
Barnier has restated that its this deal or no deal even with a possible short 'technical' extension. So given Barnier's declaration and if the HoC won't entertain progressing the WA what point would there be for the PM to try and continue without a majority. So surely its best, under such circumstances, to push for a GE as soon as practical.

What will a GE actually achieve? There are, or will be once they've examined the (huge!) Bill in detail! Plenty of BoJo deal sceptics in Conservatives too. So it would be the precise gamble May took - and 'lost'!

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Another General Election?

What’s changed since the last one - no single party imo will be able to gain a majority

But can a big coalition be formed to stop the Tories getting in again ?

People are getting to the stage where they have had enough of all this - regardless of which way they voted.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

You are entitled to think that but I dont suggest those that voted Remain are stupid or unentitled to their views, I simply counter posts that I disagree with. You on the other hand are constantly posting on here that those that want to leave or are happy with a no deal are selfish, they dont care about the havoc and unemployment they want to bring to the country, you also keep harping on about how the referendum vote was not a majority of the country so is not a fair outcome, this along with your sanctimonious whinging and irony is often juvenile and without reasoning. Check yourself out before pointing the finger at others.

I wish that I could be sure that this was not how many think - I really do.

Unfortunately, in my limited experience of hearing the views of a section of the Leave voting electorate - through listening to many Leave voters who have phoned in over the last three years to many LBC phone-ins - and who express their views on QT etc. I am just not so sure. There are many many leave voters who care deeply about the country - there seem to be a growing number who just want out - regardless it seems.

The problem for me is that too many for comfort are now simply repeating the Government mantra - Just Get it Done - Let's Get Brexit Done or variants thereof. Exactly what Cummings would have intended. And that is understandable - I'm a bit sick of it also. But that, I am afraid, does not suggest that with many there is now a great deal of thought going into the impact of the current Deal on NI, the Union, Workers and H&S rights, the economy etc. Sure enough the Chancellor is refusing to provide an economic assessment of the impact on the economy of leaving on the current deal - even if one has been done - maybe he knows it doesn't matter to that part of the electorate on his 'side'. And that just can't be good.

We all want this over and done with. But thinking that leaving on the basis of Johnson's Deal will 'Get Brexit Done' as Johnson implores, is, as we here all know, just delusional. We will be ploughing through this for years. So for goodness sake let's just enable the HoC take a bit of care and time to examine and scrutinise properly what's on offer - so we can get some form of agreement over this bit and won't spend the next however long arguing about detail in the WAB that we did not know about.

 

[drdel]

What will a GE actually achieve? There are, or will be once they've examined the (huge!) Bill in detail! Plenty of BoJo deal sceptics in Conservatives too. So it would be the precise gamble May took - and 'lost'!

Forget the Brexit shambles which isn't going anywhere soon IMO. Current government does not have a majority so the normal process of legislation isn't working.

 

[Foxholer]

...
The deal Boris has fought for is the deal the EU offered us as soon as we voted leave
...

Twaddle!

There are obviously similarities, but also fundamental differences! For example, BoJo's 'backstop' arrangement only relates to (Northern) Ireland; May's applied to whole of UK!

 

[Foxholer]

Forget the Brexit shambles which isn't going anywhere soon IMO. Current government does not have a majority so the normal process of legislation isn't working.

However 99.9% of visible government work appears to be related to Brexit!

Btw. BoJo threw away the small majority he inherited when he removed the Whip from dissenters!

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Forget the Brexit shambles which isn't going anywhere soon IMO. Current government does not have a majority so the normal process of legislation isn't working.

Quite agree. If govt can not get Bills through, it can not effectively function then a GE it is.

For those saying what has changed since the last election I would say a reasonable amount. The lines on Brexit are now clearly drawn. If you voted to leave and your MP is blocking leave then you may well not vote for them even if you voted for them in the past. Of course other policies will count but Brexit will be massive in this election. If nothing changes then so be it but the only way to find out is to have a GE and see what happens.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Twaddle!

There are obviously similarities, but also fundamental differences! For example, BoJo's 'backstop' arrangement only relates to (Northern) Ireland; May's applied to whole of UK!

But did that not come about through May asking the EU to change their offer from NI-only to all-UK? Because for May any form of NI/UK border control was totally unacceptable.

 

[woody69]

The arrangements about NI clearly differentiate BoJo's from May's. I can't remember any suggestion that NI was being 'annexed' during May's negotiations...Please elucidate.

When May first went to the EU to begin negotiations they offered up the arrangement of the backstop being in the Irish sea. The idea was rejected by May on the grounds it was unpalatable to her partners in the Democratic Unionist party, on which she relied for her working majority. At the time, she said “no British prime minister” could accept a regulatory border being drawn in the Irish Sea. They said it was undemocratic and unconstitutional and would place a tariff border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. And Boris has done effectively that.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

When May first went to the EU to begin negotiations they offered up the arrangement of the backstop being in the Irish sea. The idea was rejected by May on the grounds it was unpalatable to her partners in the Democratic Unionist party, on which she relied for her working majority. At the time, she said “no British prime minister” could accept a regulatory border being drawn in the Irish Sea. They said it was undemocratic and unconstitutional and would place a tariff border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. And Boris has done effectively that.

...and I think that, to a large extent - combined perhaps and to some extent with BoJo waving No Deal very vigorously, that is why the EU reopened the WA - Johnson walked-back from the position May had requested - back to the EUs original idea. Why wouldn't they go for that?