Crikey! Please send me the lottery numbers. Just how many assumptions have you posted there?
Brexit - or Article 50: the Phoenix!
- Thread starter drdel
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Crikey! Please send me the lottery numbers. Just how many assumptions have you posted there?
Grant85
Head Pro
Agree.
Most likely outcome as I see it is we will enter a period of continued extension, with this being nodded through every 6 months.
I just don't see any Tory government getting a deal through parliament, unless there is a cross party consensus for a Single Market deal. SM will be a red rag to the Brexit Party and the ERG, hence I can't see a Tory PM going with it.
So that leaves us needing a GE or 2nd referendum to try and break the deadlock. A GE will probably result in another hung parliament. A 2nd referendum will probably lead to another close result.
Be prepared for this thread to still be about in 5 years+
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
It’s just an opinion based on the last three years of mess - do you really think anything will change with a different PM , or will it just carry on with the same mess. Are MP’s from Labour etc going to change their mind because Boris is the PM ? IMO a new PM won’t change things
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Why are most people ignoring one massive point about the UK leaving on WTO terms? A No Deal Brexit might be inconvenient for the UK and cause some problems with queues at Dover and other ports but it would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland. There is a lot of talk about the Irish border problem but a bigger issue for Ireland's economy is the amount of their goods that come and go across the Irish Sea and through the UK. Approx 85% of Ireland's total EU freight goes via the UK (mainly out of Dublin via Liverpool and Holyhead but also to other ports). If the UK wanted to play hard ball it could stop and check every container that comes from Ireland causing massive disruption and delays, as well as stopping and checking every container that comes from the EU, through the UK, headed to Ireland.
The simple fact is that Ireland can't afford a No Deal Brexit, which also means that the EU can't allow a No Deal Brexit without cutting Ireland adrift, despite their tough talking. I have no idea why the UK negotiators didn't make more of this during the negotiations.
Which is also my biggest problem with the idea of a 2nd referendum. To me it's not about whether a 2nd referendum would be democratic or whether people have changed their minds, it's about giving the ruling party a mandate to fail to implement anything that they really don't want to do simply by being crap at trying to do it. The UK negotiations have been pretty poor for the last 3 years and in my view they have failed to actually use any of the cards we hold to get the EU to negotiate. But why should we accept that we need a 2nd referendum simply because the government have been so incompetent that they have negotiated a crap deal? We shouldn't be looking for a 2nd referendum we should be telling the government to stop pissing about and actually get us a deal that is acceptable rather than bending over every time the EU demanded something.
The simple fact is that Ireland can't afford a No Deal Brexit, which also means that the EU can't allow a No Deal Brexit without cutting Ireland adrift, despite their tough talking. I have no idea why the UK negotiators didn't make more of this during the negotiations.
Which is also my biggest problem with the idea of a 2nd referendum. To me it's not about whether a 2nd referendum would be democratic or whether people have changed their minds, it's about giving the ruling party a mandate to fail to implement anything that they really don't want to do simply by being crap at trying to do it. The UK negotiations have been pretty poor for the last 3 years and in my view they have failed to actually use any of the cards we hold to get the EU to negotiate. But why should we accept that we need a 2nd referendum simply because the government have been so incompetent that they have negotiated a crap deal? We shouldn't be looking for a 2nd referendum we should be telling the government to stop pissing about and actually get us a deal that is acceptable rather than bending over every time the EU demanded something.
A new PM could run the clock down and No Deal would happen by default, which is what May said if they didn't agree the deal on offer from the EU. May didn't want that, Boris might be happy with that. The French, Macron, had to have his arm put up his back to agree to the last extension. The No Deal scenario only needs one country in the EU to refuse an extension and it will happen.
Hacker Khan
Yurt Dwelling, Yoghurt Knitter
Acceptable to who? What people are assuming the 52% wanted, the ERGers, the Change Ukers, a majority in parliament, etc etc.
Another way of looking at it is that we have had the finest minds in government and the civil service working on a deal and they have failed to get one yet that has the blessing of the majority in parliament. Perhaps it might be that the task is too difficult based under the circumstances they were negotiating in as the EU knew no sane UK government would go for a no deal? But I suspect we are about to see what a slightly more insane one thinks.
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chrisd
Major Champion
I agree with you Brian, but we are all guessing. I think a Leaver PM does hold some trump cards and some of the EU beaurocats will not be in power after this term. I think Boris will have a stronger hand than TM did and Corbyn is dead in the water. Nobody (including Farage) wants a no deal but the maxim "no deal is better than a bad deal" is still as true now as it was then
chrisd
Major Champion
I was ok till I got to this bit 😣
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
Could ? Might ? It’s as much guess work as what I posted is it not - and will Boris have more power than May - the MP’s imo wouldn’t let any PM run down the clock regardless of the side of the fence they are on. Everything the MP’s have done points to them not wanting a No Deal. There for me is no doubt that the EU will happily allow another extension and then again - it’s in their favour.
What trump cards will a “leave PM†hold that May didn’t ? And why will Boris be stronger - is it more out of hope because you are on the side of leave ? Corbyn still holds the cards in regards votes - he still has a great number of MP’s that will oppose the government. What exactly is going to change when it comes to the voting in the HoC ?
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Well acceptable to enough MPs to get it through the HoC would be a good start, although no doubt there would then be arguments from both sides that it either was a too hard/soft (delete as applicable) Brexit, from both MPs and the general public.
And is the task actually too difficult, or are the "circumstances they were negotiating in" that a majority of MPs (and possibly now voters) don't actually want us to leave, and therefore why try too hard to get a good deal and risk us actually leaving? Bring back a crap deal, watch it get rejected by almost everyone from both sides of the debate and then claim it's not possible. We had some good cards that we could have played during the negotiations but it seems that we've folded them each time and let the EU dictate everything. For example, why did we allow the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on our future relationship to be separated? We could have demanded that both were discussed at the same time, which could have resolved the Irish border issue. And what happened to "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"?
drdel
Tour Rookie
Don't ignore the fact that post the EU elections the structure of the European Parliament will change and the new UK PM will have 28 Brexit MEPs as allies or enemies.
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
What difference does that make - the UK PM had 24 UKIP MEPs as allies before plus more Labour and Tory ones - now there is more Lib Dem and Green ones who are Pro Europe are they not ? Plus SNP.
If it is Boris, could he pull together an experienced Cabinet? I'm not so sure he could. But no doubt there'll be some horse trading for seats/Ministries. A new PM could mean a further extension, if the EU are willing to reopen the agreement, to negotiate his/her version of a deal. But that also needs Macron onside.
But there's also the HoC still to contend with. The Tories, as we know, don't having a majority without the confidence and supply agreement. Would they dare to go for a GE? Corbyn, for all his failure over Brexit, did a fab job at the last GE and could get in on the back of the Tory vote being split with the Brexit Party.
The whole dynamic changes with the recent EU elections, a new PM and a significant nationalist presence in the EU parliament.
I haven't a clue which way it will go, but if anyone wants to send me their bank card number and pin I'll have a punt on their behalf.
Apart from being noisy, 29 Brexit MEP's out of 700+ MEP's are just irritating gnats buzzing around in the background.
drdel
Tour Rookie
Don't ignore Italian MEPs.....
And Germany has 96 MEP's, France 74 and Italy has 73. With the best will in the world the nats have a majority in many countries but there's been notable swings away from them in others. I wouldn't hold my breath on help from that quarter.
Foxholer
Blackballed
The 'in government' is a qualification, not a 'location'! Diane Abbott's (lack of) arithmetic skills surely demonstrate that!
But being skilled 'politically' is a completely different talent, that many/most have in abundance!
chrisd
Major Champion
Well, Boris is a leaver for starters so his attitude will be more convincing. Hes happy with no deal if there can't be one. He has several hundred Conservative MP's who will lose their jobs if there were to be a general election, I'm sure more will fall in line now they've had 2 election wake up calls recently
Corbyn has major problems of his own
drdel
Tour Rookie
Meanwhile Speaker Bercow has decided to stay on rather than retire after his 10years in office.
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
More convincing? To who and isn’t he the person who when the Referendum went the way of his campaigning bottled it ?
And is he really happy with No Deal or just more of his empty words
And if Corbyn has big issues what do the Tories have to fear in a GE ?
I think you appear to be pining your hopes that a Leave PM will suddenly change it all around despite nothing fundamentally changing
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