Autumn Statement

ColchesterFC said:
The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.
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That'll be a long-winded 'I agree' then! :whistle:

So do I btw!

I'd suggest it was more 'most likely' than 'worst case' that they used - though they could well match!! How such levels of uncertainty are factored into predictions - and documented - depends on the approaches of those that are making the predictions! That's where the predictions of 'independent' bodies like IMF and OBR carry more weight than those of others! That said, the exact numbers are very unlikely to match reality!
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
So I would guess that the forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU. The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.
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Or the forecasting accuracy associated by the remainers.

Can you not accept that the forecasts of the remainers has been as poor if not worse.
 
ColchesterFC said:
The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.
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And so how can we have any confidence whatsoever that a Brexitted UK will be OK and not a economic disaster. The only possible UK-EU agreement that is known for sure is a 'hard' Brexit - and most commentators - and MPs - think that that would be awful for the UK - even although many 'hard'-lines - and others - actually want one.

It seems to me that the more I hear from Brexiteers (not so much here as elsewhere) about being willing to risk being financially worse off - even considerably worse off - the more I am coming to the conclusion that many just want to leave the EU because of immigration; that 'taking back control' is about controlling immigration; and that leaving is nothing really to do with any possible future economic benefits. The current generation seem to be thinking that the economic price for leaving is one worth future generations paying for. And our MPs should not allow that to happen.

Come on in Sir John Major and Tony Blair.
 
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Old Skier said:
Or the forecasting accuracy associated by the remainers.

Can you not accept that the forecasts of the remainers has been as poor if not worse.
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They did/do have the advantage of rather more certainty for their predictions! As stated in my OP, the actual predictions of some negative effects, even before A50 is invoked, seem to have been correct! There's no real surprise in that, but the idea that Brexiters can talk that out of happening, or get the independent announcers of such news (or predictions) removed, strikes me as obscene!
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
And so how can we have any confidence whatsoever that a Brexitted UK will be OK and not a economic disaster. The only possible UK-EU agreement that is known for sure is a 'hard' Brexit - and most commentators - and MPs - think that that would be awful for the UK - even although many 'hard'-lines - and others - actually want one.
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We can't. We currently have no idea what the UK outside of the Eu will be like. I have a feeling that we will end up out of the EU with no agreement in place and using WTO rules for access to the European market. I just hope that we have some very good people in charge of negotiating our trade agreements with the rest of the world as I think that it will be those deals that will decide how bad or good Brexit will be for the UK. If we can get decent deals with the rest of the world then it will soften the blow of not being in a free trade agreement with the EU.
 
ColchesterFC said:
We can't. We currently have no idea what the UK outside of the Eu will be like. I have a feeling that we will end up out of the EU with no agreement in place and using WTO rules for access to the European market. I just hope that we have some very good people in charge of negotiating our trade agreements with the rest of the world as I think that it will be those deals that will decide how bad or good Brexit will be for the UK. If we can get decent deals with the rest of the world then it will soften the blow of not being in a free trade agreement with the EU.
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I see the EU are to have a free trade agreement with the Ukraine similar to the recent Canadian agreement. This will not insist on free movement or supremacy of the ECJ or even making payments into the EU , Why would the UK be forced into a different type of arrangement unless solely as a punishment for leaving which would cut off the EU's nose to spite it's face.
 
Foxholer said:
Answering the question would work! :whistle:

As for 'stalking'...Pah! That's in the same 'daftness' category as your earlier analogy!
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Before I attempt to give an example of an authoritative opinion I have to say once again I have no intention of debating anything with you, I will make my posts separate to your childish attacks.. You make a policy of attacking my posts and I would put this to you: Can you show evidence of anywhere I have attacked your posts or initiated any insults against you. I continually receive attacks from you though.
 
SocketRocket said:
I see the EU are to have a free trade agreement with the Ukraine similar to the recent Canadian agreement. This will not insist on free movement or supremacy of the ECJ or even making payments into the EU , Why would the UK be forced into a different type of arrangement unless solely as a punishment for leaving which would cut off the EU's nose to spite it's face.
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This would be pretty much ideal! Though I think Ukraine's (and Georgia's) deal is part of phased approach to integrate it (them) into Europe proper. Along with those countries aims to loosen the hold Russia has over them!

Do you think it (Ukraine style FTA) is achievable? And would the EU really care about losing a marginal amount of their already relatively small amount (8% from memory) of trade with UK? They are in a significantly more powerful negotiating position, though that's no reason to simply admit defeat on that front! It's rather more like losing some skin off their nose, as opposed to cutting off the entire thing! :rolleyes:

The upcoming French and German elections could well have an impact on attitudes too - though whether potential gains by 'the right' will mean a hardening or softening of attitude remains to be seen!
 
SocketRocket said:
Before I attempt to give an example of an authoritative opinion I have to say once again I have no intention of debating anything with you, I will make my posts separate to your childish attacks.. You make a policy of attacking my posts and I would put this to you: Can you show evidence of anywhere I have attacked your posts or initiated any insults against you. I continually receive attacks from you though.
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Yes! There's an example!

But let's not get into THAT discussion - for reasons you have already mentioned!

The refusal to debate is bizarre! If any point being made is correct and strong enough, it will surely stand up to debate. If it's not, it should be be shot down/countered appropriately! I'm certainly prepared for that to happen to any I make!

Personal abuse has no place in any debate though!

Now! About that example of authoritative opinion...Independent please, other 'authoritative' doesn't apply! As part of 'Economists for Brexit' Prof Minson's is certainly biased!
 
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Foxholer said:
Yes! There's an example!

But let's not get into THAT discussion - for reasons you have already mentioned!

The refusal to debate is bizarre! If any point being made is correct and strong enough, it will surely stand up to debate. If it's not, it should be be shot down/countered appropriately! I'm certainly prepared for that to happen to any I make!

Personal abuse has no place in any debate though!

Now! About that example of authoritative opinion...Independent please, other 'authoritative' doesn't apply! As part of 'Economists for Brexit' Prof Minson's is certainly biased!
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I cannot debate with you when you continually make sarcastic comments and use Smilies in an attempt to humiliate. If you want to debate the words without the sarcasm then fine otherwise just don't bother as it will not create a sensible adult outcome.

Regarding your question read my previous.
 
Doon frae Troon said:
In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
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Much like Dr Craig Dalzell who you linked to earlier who represents your view..........while others might see it as, some unknown Scottish bloke said..........
 
Doon frae Troon said:
In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
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You are of course entitled to that opinion but he is hardly unknown. Would he be more authoritative if he didn't represent my view?
 
Doon frae Troon said:
In your opinion he is authoritative of course, as he represents your view...........others might see it as, some unknown Cardiff professor said.................
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ColchesterFC said:
Much like Dr Craig Dalzell who you linked to earlier who represents your view..........while others might see it as, some unknown Scottish bloke said..........
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The very reason why such publications are not 'authoritative' - generally lack of independence, publication of assumptions etc! Fine for an 'supporting opinion' if that's what/all you want to use it for though!

Little difference
 
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