Autumn Statement

SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.
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If I put 20 k in my pension today, at best, it will be worth about 20 k in 15 years time. It might be worth nothing. 20 k will give an annuity of about 800 pounds a year. Wow. If I lose that, I'm not much worse off than before.
 
SocketRocket said:
Can you please answer my question?
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The statement by the Director of the IFS was in respect of improvement in Living Standards looking forward to 2021 as brought about by increasing wages; he is clearly not talking about absolute living standards. But if you choose to criticise and dismiss his analysis and views on an incorrect reading of what he is saying, then I can't help you on that other than suggest that you re-read what he says.

"Half of the wage growth projected for the next five years back in March is not now projected to happen. On these projections real wages will, remarkably, still be below their 2008 levels in 2021," Mr Johnson said.

"One cannot stress enough how dreadful that is - more than a decade without real earnings growth. We have certainly not seen a period remotely like it in the last 70 years."
 
Foxholer said:
SocketRocket said:
I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say.....
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'Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!'

Where please?
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SocketRocket said:
Foxholer said:
Oh the irony!

:rofl: :rofl:
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I'm trying not to get us both an infraction by refraining from raising to your continued stalking....
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Answering the question would work! :whistle:

As for 'stalking'...Pah! That's in the same 'daftness' category as your earlier analogy!
 
Hobbit said:
Project Fear alert!
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But they could - unless you choose to ignore the forecasts of the recognised expertise. How long do Brexiteers go on saying everything is going to be great and that there is a land of milk and honey within our grasp. And I ask 'tell me what it is like, how do we get there, what do we find?' And so they tell me to stop being stupid - stop being so negative - it is a land of milk and honey. And I say 'really - is that it? A land of milk and honey that we will get to somehow, someday - and when we do, we don't know what we'll find other than milk and honey?'

I live my life having a strong faith - but I struggle to have faith in anything I hear from Brexiteers, and I hear very little of any substance, and when the views of Sir John Major are being dismissed because he had a fling with Edwina Currie, and hence his judgement is clearly flawed and can therefore should ignored. I despair. Come on - that's childish, pathetic and frankly irresponsible.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
But they could - unless you choose to ignore the forecasts of the recognised expertise. How long do Brexiteers go on saying everything is going to be great and that there is a land of milk and honey within our grasp. And I ask 'tell me what it is like, how do we get there, what do we find?' And so they tell me to stop being stupid - stop being so negative - it is a land of milk and honey. And I say 'really - is that it? A land of milk and honey that we will get to somehow, someday - and when we do, we don't know what we'll find other than milk and honey?'

I live my life having a strong faith - but I struggle to have faith in anything I hear from Brexiteers, and I hear very little of any substance, and when the views of Sir John Major are being dismissed because he had a fling with Edwina Currie, and hence his judgement is clearly flawed and can therefore should ignored. I despair. Come on - that's childish, pathetic and frankly irresponsible.
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Nobody thinks the world of milk and honey awaits but what you fail to accept that the gloom and doom scenario is just as unlikely to happen as is the land of milk and honey.

The world is what it is - spend more time worrying about what you can do something about rather than rant about what you have no control over.
 
Old Skier said:
Nobody thinks the world of milk and honey awaits but what you fail to accept that the gloom and doom scenario is just as unlikely to happen as is the land of milk and honey.

The world is what it is - spend more time worrying about what you can do something about rather than rant about what you have no control over.
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What makes you think the scenarios being painted by the experts and very experienced previous PMs are unlikely to happen? They may not be talking of the collapse of society - they are certainly telling us that things are going to get worse - and possibly quite a lot worse for as long as they can foresee. And on the other side nobody can tell us what the land of milk and honey might actually look like - largely because none of the experts are predicting a sweet smelling one.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
What makes you think the scenarios being painted by the experts and very experienced previous PMs are unlikely to happen? They may not be talking of the collapse of society - they are certainly telling us that things are going to get worse - and possibly quite a lot worse for as long as they can foresee. And on the other side nobody can tell us what the land of milk and honey might actually look like - largely because none of the experts are predicting a sweet smelling one.
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For someone who fails to take account of the experts from the other side I think your post rather strange.
 
For someone who is keen to accept that Brexit will be bad for the UK and to accept the financial projections showing that the UK will be worse off it seems strange that you have linked to an article with the quote.....

"Despite the efforts of economic analysts to divine the state of the economy several years hence, the only certain conclusion one can reliably reach on such things is that these predictions will be wrong to greater or lesser degrees, one way or the other."

So is it only the bad forecasts for the UK (post Brexit) that are correct and the bad ones for an independent Scotland are wrong?
 
ColchesterFC said:
For someone who is keen to accept that Brexit will be bad for the UK and to accept the financial projections showing that the UK will be worse off it seems strange that you have linked to an article with the quote.....

"Despite the efforts of economic analysts to divine the state of the economy several years hence, the only certain conclusion one can reliably reach on such things is that these predictions will be wrong to greater or lesser degrees, one way or the other."

So is it only the bad forecasts for the UK (post Brexit) that are correct and the bad ones for an independent Scotland are wrong?
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You are quite right - all forecasting has uncertainty. But if you have past performance and data to start wit,h and a reasonable understanding of the the future context and environment in which you are forecasting - then you can model the sources of error associated with that which you are modelling, and hence your estimates of the uncertainty associated with your predictions will be lower.

So I would guess that the forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU. The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.
 
Foxholer said:
I fail to see any connection! Perhaps the 'fear' is simply people's imagination - seeing anti-indy conspiracy in everything! Though I guess some would say that's a demonstration of how successful 'Project Fear' was/is! :rolleyes:
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You could be right, so many Brexiters fell for that Bus and Immigrant queue scam used in 2016.
Ignore the truth and make up any old rubbish that the idiots will fall for.

Anyway we are off topic, sorry.
 
Doon frae Troon said:
You could be right, so many Brexiters fell for that Bus and Immigrant queue scam used in 2016.
Ignore the truth and make up any old rubbish that the idiots will fall for.

Anyway we are off topic, sorry.
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Seems to be 'the new way'! Whoever would have thought that political campaigns could be dirty affairs! :rolleyes:
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
You are quite right - all forecasting has uncertainty. But if you have past performance and data to start wit,h and a reasonable understanding of the the future context and environment in which you are forecasting - then you can model the sources of error associated with that which you are modelling, and hence your estimates of the uncertainty associated with your predictions will be lower.

So I would guess that the forecasting accuracy associated with Brexit is not dissimilar to that associated with an Indy Scotland outside of the EU. The uncertainly associated with Indy Scotland in the EU will be not too far from that or a UK in the EU.
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The two bits in bold seem to be the key. Until details of any agreement between the UK and EU have been reached there can't be an understanding of the future context and environment for the forecasts. And this is equally true of any forecast for an independent Scotland whether in or out of the EU. If Scotland voted for independence, any longer term forecast would need to take into account the separation agreement between Scotland and rUK with regards to any share of UK debts etc. Until this is known the forecasts are pretty much just guesswork or more likely worst case scenarios.
 
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