Autumn Statement

Foxholer

Foxholer

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Certainly seems to anticipate that Referendum result will cause a dip in the economy! No surprise to me, but Brexiters (at least in the Commons) didn't seem to want to hear this sort of prediction/admission!

Borrowing certainly nowhere near zero by end of this Parliament. Debt as a percentage of GDP up to over 90%. OBR has even published numbers about the expected cost - something like 29Bn!

Would indicate that Mark Carney/BofE was/were pretty much spot on with his predictions - or at least matched those of other authorities! Seems a bad case of 'shoot the messenger' to me!

Quite a few 'positive' moves and a more forcefully presented Statement than those of Osborne. Hopefully none of the blunders that Osborne was prone to either!
 
Foxholer said:
Certainly seems to anticipate that Referendum result will cause a dip in the economy! No surprise to me, but Brexiters (at least in the Commons) didn't seem to want to hear this sort of prediction/admission!

Borrowing certainly nowhere near zero by end of this Parliament. Debt as a percentage of GDP up to over 90%. OBR has even published numbers about the expected cost - something like 29Bn!

Would indicate that Mark Carney/BofE was/were pretty much spot on with his predictions - or at least matched those of other authorities! Seems a bad case of 'shoot the messenger' to me!

Quite a few 'positive' moves and a more forcefully presented Statement than those of Osborne. Hopefully none of the blunders that Osborne was prone to either!
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Unfortunately in the Brexit Blunderland that the government currently inhabits, Hammond may be Gulliver amongst Lilliputians.
 
I must be missing summat here and would loved to be enlightened. All the forecasts have been reassessed because of Brexit. They are assessments by the experts who have got previous assessments wrong. But al go with the experts still. Now borrowing is still gonna be massive proper massive. Yet we will still push ahead with expensive projects like HS 2. Why? Why are this generation having to pay for the next generation being able to get to Birmingham 20 mins quicker. Why not pay for it when we are better off. Yup they want private investment for it, but to me £1 of Joe Publics money spent is a quid to much. Tough times ahead yet we have signed an expensive nuclear energy deal Why?
So to the educated or not so educated out there, can someone please enlighten me.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Unfortunately in the Brexit Blunderland that the government currently inhabits, Hammond may be Gulliver amongst Lilliputians.
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What Brexit Blunderland is that then. From where I'm sitting Brexit hasn't happened yet!

IMO one of the biggest threats we have in the country are people just like you that have a policy of talking the country down. This is a great way to create uncertainty and encourage a recession.

I know you believe yourself to be the one who Speaks through the earthquake, wind, and fire 'O' still, small voice of calm, but to some of us you just sound like an embittered person who didn't get his own way so has decided to drone on ad-nausea rather than face up to reality and try to make the best of things.
 
Basically politicians put off the bad news for the next lot to deal with. No one wants to be remembered as the politician who really cut their cloth accordingly so they dodge it. The current PM will only be there for the next 5-6 years at best so they won't have to deal with the debt of Trident, HS2 etc. They want to be remembered for what they built, not for cutting and being mean and nasty. They are cowards basically. Yes, I am cynical but I think I am right as well.
 
Lord Tyrion said:
Basically politicians put off the bad news for the next lot to deal with. No one wants to be remembered as the politician who really cut their cloth accordingly so they dodge it. The current PM will only be there for the next 5-6 years at best so they won't have to deal with the debt of Trident, HS2 etc. They want to be remembered for what they built, not for cutting and being mean and nasty. They are cowards basically. Yes, I am cynical but I think I am right as well.
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Tell me the difference between a cynic and a realist and I'll tell you which one you are…. ;)
 
SocketRocket said:
What Brexit Blunderland is that then. From where I'm sitting Brexit hasn't happened yet!

IMO one of the biggest threats we have in the country are people just like you that have a policy of talking the country down. This is a great way to create uncertainty and encourage a recession.

I know you believe yourself to be the one who Speaks through the earthquake, wind, and fire 'O' still, small voice of calm, but to some of us you just sound like an embittered person who didn't get his own way so has decided to drone on ad-nausea rather than face up to reality and try to make the best of things.
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Yet all you appear to be doing is using this thread and others as a vehicle to constant play slating tennis with SILH - it's no surprise that your first post on this thread is to have a go at him , it doesn't have any relation to what the OP is it's just another platform for you to start preaching to one and all about how everything is going to be perfect and anyone with any fears and worries is as you say "talking the country down" - maybe it's time you realise you are just as bad but from the opposite of the fence - with your horse as high as anyone else and stop constantly turning this political threads into a war ground between you and anyone who may not agree with your outlook on the future. There are a number of people on the forum who are able to put across any positives in regards Brexit without talking down to people and creating a running battle with a poster.
 
Liverpoolphil said:
Yet all you appear to be doing is using this thread and others as a vehicle to constant play slating tennis with SILH - it's no surprise that your first post on this thread is to have a go at him , it doesn't have any relation to what the OP is it's just another platform for you to start preaching to one and all about how everything is going to be perfect and anyone with any fears and worries is as you say "talking the country down" - maybe it's time you realise you are just as bad but from the opposite of the fence - with your horse as high as anyone else and stop constantly turning this political threads into a war ground between you and anyone who may not agree with your outlook on the future. There are a number of people on the forum who are able to put across any positives in regards Brexit without talking down to people and creating a running battle with a poster.
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No! you cant talk to me like that or you will be seen to be doing unto me what you suggest I do to unto SILH, bit hypocritical what!

So I am turning this political thread into a war ground between myself and anyone who may not agree with my outlook on the future am I. War ground eh! :) Get real mate! SILH has a very single minded outlook on the subject matter and expresses it with passion, he is quite capable to stand his corner without you charging in like his big Brother.

This is a Forum and as such we can put our views and disagree with others. If you don't like my views then debate the subject/put me on your ignore list or write me off as an oddball but please spare me the sermon.
 
And lo - I listen to a Eurosceptic Brexit MP telling us that Phillip Hammond should have ignored the OBR forecasts he used for the Autumn Statement - as they are "downbeat and ignorant in many respects".

These folks just need to get over it; and stop moaning and dismissing the experts and Remainers if they say anything that seems to conflict with their 'everything will be great - look - there has been an earthquake but no tsunami' narrative. They seem to forget that when the tsunami hits depends upon how far from shore the epicentre of the earthquake is. Hammond is simply catering for a less than perfect future scenario. If you do not prepare your defences properly you could get swamped or swept away. Just saying that something won't happen does not make it so. And we know that to be the case.
 
If any of you use the VAT flat rate scheme for business and trade mainly in the service industry, big changes are coming to the percentages you are using, as it is now seen as aggressive VAT avoidance use of the scheme.

Also watch out for Making Tax Digital(MTD) and having to keep your records on a daily basis on computer software yourself and filing returns five times a year, meant to start in April 2018.....
 
More fuel to the fire for Commons and Lords (Supreme Court case result pending) to weedle out of Brexit when it gets to parliament. Bet Tory party whips won't push their MPs to back it even though to the media they'll say they did. With such a small majority will only take a few Tory MPs coerced by Ken Clarke and buddies to vote it down. This 'bad news' yesterday could even be staged by Govt to sew more seeds of doubt. Will not be surprised to see the Article 50 draft bill defeated in Commons/Lords, followed by public protests/celebrations depending on what flag you fly, closely followed by General Election. UKIP get 20 MPs by numerous Tories defecting to UKIP but that's it, UK staying in the EU with the government in coalition again........................................................led by resurrected Tony Blair;):whoo:

Seriously expect further major political turmoil over the next 2 years. Nothing would surprise me these days.
 
SocketRocket said:
...
This is a Forum and as such we can put our views and disagree with others. If you don't like my views then debate the subject/put me on your ignore list or write me off as an oddball but please spare me the sermon.
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Debate - certainly; abuse - certainly not!

There is a legitimate amount of debate over the likely (initial) cost of Brexit! Many Brexiters are choosing to either ignore it, pooh-pooh it or simply say there will not be a cost! Seems to me that this is pure fantasy (lies in other words) and it would be better to take the view that the initial hit will be worthwhile when the £350m/week (Yeah right! tTime to actually use a proper value!) starts taking effect - and all the other benefits start to come on stream!

Stating that Hammond should not have used OBR figures as they were 'negative' is, imo, another example of MPs abusing their position in the same way that they harassed Carney - who actually faced them down in Select Committee questions extremely well!
 
The OBR figures are complete guess work and they know it. No one at this conjecture understands what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations with the EU will result in. Their predictions are as bad as the ones before the Referendum and erring on 'worse case', taking the view we will not generate any additional trade and income after we have left and will have no free trade agreement.
 
SocketRocket said:
The OBR figures are complete guess work and they know it. No one at this conjecture understands what the outcome of the Brexit negotiations with the EU will result in. Their predictions are as bad as the ones before the Referendum and erring on 'worse case', taking the view we will not generate any additional trade and income after we have left and will have no free trade agreement.
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Given their actual name (Office for Budget Responsibility) I hardly think they are that! That statement seems another example of the 'pooh-pooh'-ing of such predictions that I referred to!

Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!

Their Trade assumptions are in this document! http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/Nov2016EFO.pdf
 
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It's like saying a weather forecast is "complete guess work" when they say it's going to rain tomorrow. Sure, it may not. Sure, you can dismiss anyone saying "I'm not playing tomorrow, it's gonna rain" as a doom and gloom merchant. Doesn't alter the fact that it's the best advice available and it's probably a good idea to stick your brolly in the car. The alternative is to (possibly) get a soaking.
 
Fyldewhite said:
It's like saying a weather forecast is "complete guess work" when they say it's going to rain tomorrow. Sure, it may not. Sure, you can dismiss anyone saying "I'm not playing tomorrow, it's gonna rain" as a doom and gloom merchant. Doesn't alter the fact that it's the best advice available and it's probably a good idea to stick your brolly in the car. The alternative is to (possibly) get a soaking.
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It's nothing like that. It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.
 
SocketRocket said:
It's nothing like that. It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.
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:rofl: :rofl:
That ridiculous analogy has just destroyed any remaining thoughts about taking anything you post seriously!
 
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