Autumn Statement

Foxholer said:
:rofl: :rofl:
That ridiculous analogy has just destroyed any remaining thoughts about taking anything you post seriously!
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Normal puerile clap trap from you. A Mod has just given you a warning about this and you just keep on trying. Pathetic!

Hammond said " the OBR very specifically says in its report that there is an unusually high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts it is making because of the unusual circumstances"

The OBR has quite a poor record in it's forecasting accuracy.
 
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SocketRocket said:
Normal puerile clap trap from you. A Mod has just given you a warning about this and you just keep on trying. Pathetic!

Hammond said "[FONT=&] the OBR very specifically says in its report that there is an unusually high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts it is making because of the unusual circumstances"
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Ah! The abuse has arrived! :rolleyes:

Once again, you haven't answered my question! The one in Post 17 btw!

Btw. The 'uncertainty' works both ways - could be better; could be worse!"

The assumptions about uncertainty are clearly set out in the Executive Summary!
 
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Foxholer said:
Ah! The abuse has arrived! :rolleyes:

Once again, you haven't answered my question! The one in Post 17 btw!
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I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say. I have nothing more to add on that matter.

You really are provoking an infraction.
 
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SocketRocket said:
I did answer it but not what you wanted me to say. I have nothing more to add on that matter...
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'Have there been any authoritative predictions that give 'better' numbers? I certainly haven't seen any!'

Where please?

Btw. I'm not knocking Brexit! That has to happen imo!
 
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SocketRocket said:
It's nothing like that. It's more like saying it may be raining on this day next year and there is a possibility that it may rain on the same day the year after.
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Not really, weather forecasting is over a period of days, economic forecasting is over a period of years. They are different things, but the principle is the same. You go with the best forecast available and plan around it. Of course you can make it up yourself, or maybe dismiss anything that says things are going to be bad.....but that would be stupid wouldn't it?

The semantics aside I'm actually glad that the government and other bodies are starting to acknowledge that the cost of Brexit will be enormous over the next few years. It's so easy to say "we will negotiate our own trade agreements" without appreciating the cost of doing so. It takes staff, it takes experts (ironically), it takes IT, office space etc and over considerable time. I'm no expert in trade agreements but in just one department that I do know a bit about (DWP) any idea how many procedural and system changes will be required? How many forms have an EU citizen tickbox? How many lines of code have "IF EUCitizen=1 THEN........). Neither have I but it's a lot, and it all needs to be changed, and there's nobody in place right now to do all that work.
 
Fyldewhite said:
Not really, weather forecasting is over a period of days, economic forecasting is over a period of years. They are different things, but the principle is the same. You go with the best forecast available and plan around it. Of course you can make it up yourself, or maybe dismiss anything that says things are going to be bad.....but that would be stupid wouldn't it?

The semantics aside I'm actually glad that the government and other bodies are starting to acknowledge that the cost of Brexit will be enormous over the next few years. It's so easy to say "we will negotiate our own trade agreements" without appreciating the cost of doing so. It takes staff, it takes experts (ironically), it takes IT, office space etc and over considerable time. I'm no expert in trade agreements but in just one department that I do know a bit about (DWP) any idea how many procedural and system changes will be required? How many forms have an EU citizen tickbox? How many lines of code have "IF EUCitizen=1 THEN........). Neither have I but it's a lot, and it all needs to be changed, and there's nobody in place right now to do all that work.
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What you say is a valid point of view but for me I would add that I cannot see how the OBR can forecast with any degree of accuracy until they understand what kind agreement the EU/UK negotiations will bring. OK, at this time they have used what they know now in their forcast and that is OK as long as it's clear it has been made on that criteria.
 
SocketRocket said:
What you say is a valid point of view but for me I would add that I cannot see how the OBR can forecast with any degree of accuracy until they understand what kind agreement the EU/UK negotiations will bring. OK, at this time they have used what they know now in their forcast and that is OK as long as it's clear it has been made on that criteria.
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That is EXACTLY what they have done! They also have a 'disclaimer' about possible 'choices and trade-offs'!
 
Maybe I'm missing something but yesterday's statements from various bodies all seemed to say the GDP won't grow as quickly as predicted. It didn't say it would shrink. I seem to remember that one of the 'expert' bodies also said the UK would still be the quickest growing economy in the west.

On Radio 2 earlier today John MacDonald, Labour Shadow Chancellor, said that he was very disappointed that the govt were only putting in £58 billion to stimulate growth. He then went on to champion the fact that Labour would put in £500 billion over the next 10 years... is that not less than £50 billion a year.
 
And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that "This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would. Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there. It'll be great. Yeah Right. I hope so.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that "This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would. Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there. It'll be great. Yeah Right. I hope so.
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"Worst decade..." Labour were in govt for the first 4 years of that decade and handed a (Gordon) Brown mess over. I've just finished reading a book on the Blair years. Yes he was bad for the country, but Brown was an absolute disgrace as a Chancellor.

As for your last 8 years comment... The Coalition govt was formed in 2010, not 2008. Labour were still in power 8 years ago. 6 years ago the Coalition govt was still dealing with the mess, a mess so huge it wouldn't be put right overnight, or even in a few years.

But as usual, its all the Tories fault, in your eyes. Even John MacDonald screwed up the figures in his reposte earlier today.

Thankfully the latest figures for who would be in govt if a snap election is called is still not Labour.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
And the Institute for Fiscal Studies in commenting on the Autumn Statement suggests workers' pay growth prospects are dreadful and that "This has, for sure, been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

In response a just released statement from the government points the finger for that at the last Labour governmet - well of course it would. Take no responsibility for the last 8yrs and the austerity policy and the pain the poorer can look forward to.

Ah - the Jolly Brexiteers say - don't listen to them - too pessimistic - the IFS - what do they know - they clearly don't realise that the land of milk and honey is there for us to make hay in - once we work out where it is; what might be there, and what we'll be able to do when we get there. It'll be great. Yeah Right. I hope so.
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I know some say I am making a habit of attacking your posts but for goodness sake help me out here and don't post this type of nonsense!

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s. I dont know what Britain you grew up in but the one I grew up in had living standards where you could only dream of living in the last decade. People were poor, social benefits were just about non existent, food was rationed, no televisions, cars, mobile phones, computers, central heating, fashionable clothes; need I go on without sounding like I am quoting Monty Python.

Comments like the one you quoted are untrue and extremely distorting reality.
 
SocketRocket said:
I know some say I am making a habit of attacking your posts but for goodness sake help me out here and don't post this type of nonsense!

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s. I dont know what Britain you grew up in but the one I grew up in had living standards where you could only dream of living in the last decade. People were poor, social benefits were just about non existent, food was rationed, no televisions, cars, mobile phones, computers, central heating, fashionable clothes; need I go on without sounding like I am quoting Monty Python.

Comments like the one you quoted are untrue and extremely distorting reality.
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Don't shoot the messenger please. And so in your view the Institute for Fiscal Studies should join the Office for Budget Responsibility on the Brexit naughty step for saying the wrong thing about the past. Which is handy as it let's us dismiss their forecasts. Ah well.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Don't shoot the messenger please. And so in your view the Institute for Fiscal Studies should join the Office for Budget Responsibility on the Brexit naughty step for saying the wrong thing about the past. Which is handy as it let's us dismiss their forecasts. Ah well.
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You used the statement to support your view so I ask you the question:

Do you honestly believe that it has been the worst decade for living standards certainly since the last war and probably since the 1920s?
 
Nice to see the forum has woken up a day later than what I said in post number three. All of these figures are based upon assessments by people who have got figures by assessments wrong in the past. Very comforting indeed. In fact the figures have now been adjusted because of Brexit. So the experts/ people never considered the fact that we could actually vote to leave.
 
Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.
 
Hacker Khan said:
Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.
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I am fairly sure that most sensible folk will see it that way as well.
 
Hacker Khan said:
Pretty sure they just said the prospects for wage growth are dreadful, there will be very little growth in average incomes whilst the cost of living will rise. So living standards as measured by income growth are not looking good. Not quite sure the point that you can now get Iphone 7s when you could not 40 years ago is that relevant to this study.
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Jeez, and with naff all interest rates, zero pay rises, pension going down the pan, investments also, I didn't realise I was so well off. And that's before brexit. Seriously, it can't get worse for me, but it might get better. I'll take that chance, because from where I'm standing, it can't get that much worse.
 
murphthemog said:
Jeez, and with naff all interest rates, zero pay rises, pension going down the pan, investments also, I didn't realise I was so well off. And that's before brexit. Seriously, it can't get worse for me, but it might get better. I'll take that chance, because from where I'm standing, it can't get that much worse.
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Oh it can...pay cuts; pension going further down the pan and doesn't recover - and the poor and destitute rising up against those who have something. And the same for your children and grandchildren.
 
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