Ethan
Money List Winner
You are right, a 4-1 odds is based on a 1 in 5 probability, so even at shortish odds, still considered unlikely to win.
Why Rory won't win the masters?
- Thread starter bobmac
- Start date
You are right, a 4-1 odds is based on a 1 in 5 probability, so even at shortish odds, still considered unlikely to win.
I think the article is well reasoned, and written. However, apart from Bubba who when in the zone is a fantastic golfer with the necessary skills to move the ball both ways that Augusta demands, I think the others have failings too. If Rory turns up with his 'A' game he'll walk it, and if he turns up with his 'B' game he'll still be pretty close.
Whatever happens, it will still require someone to have a fantastic week. And you've only got to look at the stars of the game to realise they are more likely to do that, which includes the world number 1.
Whatever happens, it will still require someone to have a fantastic week. And you've only got to look at the stars of the game to realise they are more likely to do that, which includes the world number 1.
Pin-seeker
Well-known member
Apologies if I'm being stupid here,but where are you getting the 1 in 5 from?
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
Pretty much spot on
It seems very rare for a rank outsider to win at Augusta - Weir , Immelman apart most of the recent winners are people you would expect to be challenging
richart
Major Champion
The Masters usually has a good group in with a chance on the back nine on Sunday. It is also very easy to shoot well over par with all the water, but also make up four or five shots with some good birdie chances. Can't wait.:thup:
Tiger
Money List Winner
I have a feeling Westwood will win this year. No one's talking about him. He always does well at Augusta and I have an inkling this is his year.
I do wonder if Rory's mental scars have fully healed...
I do wonder if Rory's mental scars have fully healed...
Ethan
Money List Winner
Not being stupid. It is a bit trickier than it looks. Consider evens odds. That is 1 to 1 although usually not expressed as such and represents as good a chance of winning as not, i.e. a 1 in 2 chance or 50% probability. That is because odds are expressed as likely number of losses; likely number of wins. So for evens that is 1:1 or 1 in 2 chance. For 4 to 1 odds that is 4 losses and 1 win in 5 goes or 1 in 5 chance. The theory is that if there will be 4 losses for each won they should give you 4 times your stake. Interestingly if you take a gf event, football match or horse rate and concert all the odds into probability and add them up the total probability always up to more than 100%. That is why bookies have big houses and nice cars.
Pin-seeker
Well-known member
But if lets say in a football match team A are even money & suddenly people start lumping big on team B.
Team A's price would probably go up to say 5/4 to try & get punters to back them.
But this doesn't make team A any less likely to win the match.
Hope that makes sense.
G
guest100718
Guest
he's shown before that he can suddenly hit top form and run away with a tournament. Lets hops he does it at the masters
Break90
Tour Rookie
You're spot on. The odds offered by the bookies also reflect their liability (the amount they have to pay out) iff the bet comes in. So the more money that is bet on an outcome, the shorter the odds offered, regardless of the likelihood of the outcome being realised.
pokerjoke
Money List Winner
Im going Kaymer.
Not with any conviction but hes worth 50p
Not with any conviction but hes worth 50p
Ethan
Money List Winner
The odds should start out with a probability estimate but it also certainly reflects betting behaviour and the weight of possible losses so that the bookies limit the damage if they lose. This is a further reason why Tiger is almost never a good bet, because his odds are invariably poor value compared to his chances.
Pin-seeker
Well-known member
Cheers for explaining
ScienceBoy
Money List Winner
Rory will NOT win the Masters...
He will DEMOLISH IT!
He will DEMOLISH IT!
HawkeyeMS
Ryder Cup Winner
Isn't it stating the obvious saying he'll have to be on top of his game to win? You don't win any tournament in the weeks before it starts, it's what happens during the 4 days of the tournament tha counts. He's the best player in the world, he might not win, but there's a damn good chance he will.
Imurg
The Grinder Of Pars (Semi Crocked)
Let's face it, whoever wins will have to be on top of their game.....
Everything has to work to end up with that jacket come Sunday evening...
Everything has to work to end up with that jacket come Sunday evening...
HomerJSimpson
Hall of Famer
He has the potential to win and probably still feels Augusta owes him after that meltdown. Personally I don't think he'll do it this year but he will win at Augusta
mcbroon
Journeyman Pro
I don't think it's much of a stretch to say he probably won't win. You can say that about anyone in a 100+ player field - the odds are against all of them.
All you can say is that he's the best player in the world. If he turns up with his best stuff, nobody can beat him. If he doesn't have his best stuff, he might still win but he might not.
I hope he blows the field away like he was going to in 2011 and like he did at Congressional shortly after. That is the best golf I've ever seen (I didn't see Tiger in 2000). The best sight in golf is Rory taking the field and the course apart.
All you can say is that he's the best player in the world. If he turns up with his best stuff, nobody can beat him. If he doesn't have his best stuff, he might still win but he might not.
I hope he blows the field away like he was going to in 2011 and like he did at Congressional shortly after. That is the best golf I've ever seen (I didn't see Tiger in 2000). The best sight in golf is Rory taking the field and the course apart.
bladeplayer
Money List Winner
Didnt read the article so apologies m just giving my opinion without that knowledge , if rory putts well, especially early on he has great chance of winning. coz IMO he knows the rest of his game is way better than every one else but his putting levels the field
if not rory id go with jordan speith his putting esp 3-4 feet will save him shots ,
Jimmy walker on fire so good each way bet
if not rory id go with jordan speith his putting esp 3-4 feet will save him shots ,
Jimmy walker on fire so good each way bet
Slab
Occasional Tour Caddy
Surely everyone wants Rickie Fowler to win?
Imagine all those editors wincing/salivating (delete depending on taste) when they have to reproduce this with a green jacket!
edit: I'd like to see Rory win and he'd be a worthy champ and we can give dozens of statistical or speculative reasons why he will/wont, but more than anything I want excitement through the 4 days with a close finish
Imagine all those editors wincing/salivating (delete depending on taste) when they have to reproduce this with a green jacket!
edit: I'd like to see Rory win and he'd be a worthy champ and we can give dozens of statistical or speculative reasons why he will/wont, but more than anything I want excitement through the 4 days with a close finish
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