Paddy Power hole in one bet

[dufferman]

Looked at the Paddy Power odds last night in bed for the Ryder Cup, and whilst scrolling through saw the odds for hole in ones. Although the odds weren't great (IMO) on plain old will there be one and when will there be one, the odds for each player to get a hole in one were at 100/1, with 4 being 125/1. I couldn't believe that those odds were so high! Anyway, I thought you should know!

I've put a tenner on, with £1 on 10 players. Worth a go, right?

 

[USER1999]

There do seem to be more holes in one at the RC than other tournaments.

Some guy even got one without hitting a shot!

 

[pokerjoke]

They seem reasonable odds,hope youve picked the right 10.
I remember the story of the guys that bet on a hole in one happening at some tournament
back in the 80s i think it was.
Basically they found independent bookmakers were offering 100 to 1 on a hole in one happening
during the tournament.
History told them it nearly always happened.
I believe they made close to a million

 

[JustOne]

What were the odds for a hole in one to happen (any time for any player) at the tournament?

 

[CMAC]

Looked at the Paddy Power odds last night in bed for the Ryder Cup, and whilst scrolling through saw the odds for hole in ones. Although the odds weren't great (IMO) on plain old will there be one and when will there be one, the odds for each player to get a hole in one were at 100/1, with 4 being 125/1. I couldn't believe that those odds were so high! Anyway, I thought you should know!

I've put a tenner on, with £1 on 10 players. Worth a go, right?

I don't think it is, that's the odds at all the majors and you have between 60-90 players playing 18 holes over 4 days with everyone playing 4 par 3's each day.

RC has foursomes and fourballs for 2 days then 12 singles day 3 and they wont all get to play the par 3's.

Bookies aint daft!

 

[pendodave]

Bookies aint daft!

bookies are rich
punters are (mostly) poor

repeat until the urge passes...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Matchplay and foursomes..........changes the odds to the bookies quite a bit.

 

[pendodave]

from google somewhere...

"The Golf Digest study provided many great nuggets of information, even breaking the odds down by quality of play:
Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1"

So if a player were to play 4 par threes a round, and play 4 rounds, that would be 3000/16 which is ...

1/187

seems like a reasonable margin has been built in by the oddsters.

 

[pendodave]

Having posted a couple of sniffy replies, I can't deny that there is a sneaky suspicion that (rather like the example of the holes in one betting from the 80s) there is some value to be made in golf at the bookies expense. But the trouble with it being a well followed and televised sport is that the chances are that all the obvious ones have been spotted.

If anyone has read moneyball (not seen the film, but will have to catch up with it at some point), they will know that even in a really popular game that is incredibly carefully analysed it is possible that accepted truths that are not subjected to the appropriate questions/analysis offer the best avenues to discover 'value'. If it can happen in baseball, I'm sure that it can happen in golf. My pension pot depends on it !!!

 

[dufferman]

What were the odds for a hole in one to happen (any time for any player) at the tournament?

Something like 7/2 I think, I can't quite remember. That's why it was weird. Also, the bets were 10/1 for a hole in one on the Friday, Saturday and Sunday individually.

Believe me, I'm no gambling man. In the last year I have made 2 trips to the bookmakers - the Grand National where I didn't make a penny and Rory's major win where I won back the £10 I'd put on across the board.

But 100/1 just seemed too tempting!

 

[Crawfy]

PP put the HIO bet on for the majors too, usually at 100's

I normally put a couple of quid on the aggressive players who go for it. Good point above on the 4ball 4somes eating into your chances of said player taking on the shot.

 

[muttleee]

So far there have been 38 Ryder Cups, which have produced 6 holes in one:

Peter Butler (GB&I), 1973, Muirfield
Nick Faldo (Eur), 1993, The Belfry
Costantino Rocca (Eur), 1995, Oak Hill
Howard Clark (Eur), 1995, Oak Hill
Paul Casey (Eur), 2006, K Club
Scott Verplank (USA), 2006, K Club

I think I'd keep my money in my pocket.