OK WHAT WILL THE GENERAL ELECTION RESULT BE?

[Doon frae Troon]

I think it will be very close with the Tory seats in Scotland crucial.
Unfortunately the Brexit and Lib Dems vote has lost the support that I hoped would water down the Tory vote.
The EDL/UKIP extreme right types seem to have all fallen in line with the Tories.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Maybe - my son is certainly very energised - especially over Brexit and the impact that loss of freedom of movement could have on his work sector (music and travelling artists/bands/acts) - and also over the impact of austerity on the poorest and most vulnerable - and he knows a lot more about that than I as he is on the fringe of being part of that sector of the population.

I don't doubt it. There will always be a young energised group coming up to an election but the whole 'students will change the election' is raised every time but never actually comes to fruition. No idea why, I have voted in every election that I have been eligible for so I can't get into the mindset of those who can't be bothered. When the results are analysed going forward we will see if this election is different.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Rough weather on election day, if you are a Labour or SNP supporter it would be a good idea to hide your great grandparents/grandparents umbrella.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I don't doubt it. There will always be a young energised group coming up to an election but the whole 'students will change the election' is raised every time but never actually comes to fruition. No idea why, I have voted in every election that I have been eligible for so I can't get into the mindset of those who can't be bothered. When the results are analysed going forward we will see if this election is different.

My son and his Sheffield friends aren't students - they are young people really struggling to live - some in low paid work - many not working - a very few on a half-decent wage. They are not that bothered about what costs might be dumped on them paying back what we borrow today - because without sorting and helping them today, their future is bleak in any case. Corbyn and Labour speak to their needs. Their needs are now - they need help and support now. My son looks at the Tories and sees a selfish, self-serving 'elite' - completely out of touch of the harsh realities of life towards the bottom, never mind at the bottom. Just how it is.

He and his mates will vote Labour. Might not be enough in a north Sheffield constituency to counter the 'Brexit-Bonanza-Tomorrow' expectations of many in the constituency when all those Eastern Europeans leave...but maybe...

 

[Hobbit]

I don't doubt it. There will always be a young energised group coming up to an election but the whole 'students will change the election' is raised every time but never actually comes to fruition. No idea why, I have voted in every election that I have been eligible for so I can't get into the mindset of those who can't be bothered. When the results are analysed going forward we will see if this election is different.

There's a lot of over-inflated hype around the student vote. If you consider the numbers its easy to see its just hot air, to a certain extent.

1) There's around 3.8 million UK students.

2) How many are new voters?

3) How many will get out of bed on the day?

4) How many will vote Labour?

Let's deal with the data with a few assumptions, and in a very raw way. Assume 2.4 million vote. That equates to less than 4,000, total young, voters per constituency, a number of which already vote. Assume that 2/3 vote Labour = 2,640. Then look at the number of marginals where that number might make a difference. If you stretch things a little further and consider the historical Tory/Labour constituencies... just how much difference will the student vote really make?

 

[Lord Tyrion]

There's a lot of over-inflated hype around the student vote. If you consider the numbers its easy to see its just hot air, to a certain extent.

1) There's around 3.8 million UK students.

2) How many are new voters?

3) How many will get out of bed on the day?

4) How many will vote Labour?

Let's deal with the data with a few assumptions, and in a very raw way. Assume 2.4 million vote. That equates to less than 4,000, total young, voters per constituency, a number of which already vote. Assume that 2/3 vote Labour = 2,640. Then look at the number of marginals where that number might make a difference. If you stretch things a little further and consider the historical Tory/Labour constituencies... just how much difference will the student vote really make?

I agree. It is something the press like to raise every election. You usually get a 2 minute section on a news bulletin showing enthusiastic and committed students rallying for the cause, whichever cause but usually Labour, and it is suggested they will have a major influence 'as it is their future and they will vote for change'. It doesn't happen as those in the bulletin are the committed few, not the silent majority who don't bother.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Regarding young folk voting, if I remember correctly there was not much difference between about four age groups in the 2014 Indyref.
Remember that included 16 and 17 year olds.
How they voted was quite significant though...….. No voters was much higher with the auld yins.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Regarding young folk voting, if I remember correctly there was not much difference between about four age groups in the 2014 Indyref.
Remember that included 16 and 17 year olds.
How they voted was quite significant though...….. No voters was much higher with the auld yins.

Single issue votes tend to get more people out generally and i am not surprised a high number voted in the Indy Ref. In particular, every vote counts in a referendum. General Elections tend to be more of a turn off, particularly if you are in what is considered a safe seat.

One of the biggest threats to the Tories this time around will be apathy as Boris has survived in his usual Teflon style up to this point.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Single issue votes tend to get more people out generally and i am not surprised a high number voted in the Indy Ref. In particular, every vote counts in a referendum. General Elections tend to be more of a turn off, particularly if you are in what is considered a safe seat.

One of the biggest threats to the Tories this time around will be apathy as Boris has survived in his usual Teflon style up to this point.

...and if the weather isn't great then who can (or can be bothered to) get to the polling station and who can't.

More to the point is under 30s registering...that could be a fair number...

 

[SocketRocket]

I asked a couple of twenty somethings at the golf club how they were voting, they both said they don't understand anything about politics so won't vote.

 

[drdel]

One thing is for sure: the news/media on Friday will contain stories from ALL parties about how successful they were 24 hours earlier.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

I asked a couple of twenty somethings at the golf club how they were voting, they both said they don't understand anything about politics so won't vote.

It is a somewhat dismaying to see this so often these days. On TVs shows etc when politics comes up, the younger side of the country saying words to the effect," I don't know about politics" etc - wearing it almost as a badge of honour, "look at me, I'm a good type cos I don't know about politics etc etc.

And when they moan about what's going on, we are supposed to be sympathetic ?

 

[Hobbit]

It is a somewhat dismaying to see this so often these days. On TVs shows etc when politics comes up, the younger side of the country saying words to the effect," I don't know about politics" etc - wearing it almost as a badge of honour, "look at me, I'm a good type cos I don't know about politics etc etc.

And when they moan about what's going on, we are supposed to be sympathetic ?

You forgot the bit about the older generation have to wipe their.... noses? for them too.

 

[Wolf]

I can see a small Tory minority squeaking past the line and come Friday Boris will be taking the foil off his supposedly overn ready Brexit deal then us hitting a stalemate in negotiations again..

I see in my old home town a lot of people shifting back towards labour but not enough to change it from a Tory stronghold and i think thats what will happen in a lot places in and around London areas. Where I live now though there's a large student and younger contingent seemingly swaying towards Lib Dems and Greens..

Ultimately I see Labour closing the gap on Tories, Lib Dem picking up seats in areas where it was close during the leave/remain vote. SNP getting a few more north of the border but ultimately not anyone getting enough to oust Conservatives and them getting a 30-50 seat majority.

 

[MegaSteve]

I am still very much hoping the much encouraged tactical voting, in Uxbridge, will see a very disappointed Boris come Friday morning...

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Swing seems to be moving towards Labour

 

[chrisd]

Swing seems to be moving towards Labour

From SNP ?

 

[SocketRocket]

I am still very much hoping the much encouraged tactical voting, in Uxbridge, will see a very disappointed Boris come Friday morning...

Just what the country needs, another leadership election and just imagine of the conservatives win and have to kick the new session off with that.

 

[ColchesterFC]

Just what the country needs, another leadership election and just imagine of the conservatives win and have to kick the new session off with that.

I think that if Boris was to lose his seat he would remain as Tory leader and a candidate in a safe seat would be encouraged to stand aside, possibly by moving them up to the House of Lords, and Boris would then stand in that seat in a by-election.

 

[MegaSteve]

I think that if Boris was to lose his seat he would remain as Tory leader and a candidate in a safe seat would be encouraged to stand aside, possibly by moving them up to the House of Lords, and Boris would then stand in that seat in a by-election.

Thing is Uxbridge was a "safe seat" until Boris rocked up...