Cherry13
Head Pro
Tories with 50 plus seat majority, and Brexit party to pick up 3-5 seats. The country is going to swing massively right! Unfortunately it’s just the current mood!
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Cherry13
Head Pro
Do you think the country is ready or wants a centrist type party? Interesting that BP are going to rename to reform. It’s a classic move by him, and spells out what he wants to achieve. I think the next ten years will be defined by hard left and hard right, and right always wins in that battle.
I would argue the country voted for that three times under Tony Blair. That fell apart under insipid leaders, Brown and the wrong Milliband. It could happen again with the right people at the head.
If we take the poison that is Brexit out of this I would say that the country is largely a smidge right of centre. A good slightly left of centre or straight centre party would pick up lots of people who don't like the lurch to the left and to the right we are currently seeing. At the moment where do those people go? (Libdems have failed there for me). If Labour lose badly then I hope the party realises it need to readjust its stance, gut its front bench and move back to the centre.
Do you think we could persuade your old MP to fly back ?. Sadly not I suspect. Why would he put himself and his family through it all?
I think Farage and his party will bomb this election and his move today is trying to keep himself relevant come Friday. Their bubble has deflated very quickly but he wants to stay in the limelight. He is best as a protest leader with a very tight focus and this may keep the cheques rolling in.
I hope you are wrong in your last point, time period, as that would be horribly destructive.
Cherry13
Head Pro
100% new labour were centrist, and probably the most successful centrist move in modern history.
I sadly just think Brexit is an outlet for how people truly feel.
Lib Dem’s have majorilly dropped the ball this last few years. In fact, I think Brexit happening would have been best thing for them. They could have became a true protest vote.
Cherry13
Head Pro
PS I keep typing more comprehensive answers, but then it keeps dropping out and deleting them.
Cherry13
Head Pro
Also, I’m assuming you mean fly David milliband back and not Stephen Hepburn... I’m actually Jarrow haha.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Tory majority of 40; SNP make minor gains in Scotland. Followed by a failure to negotiate a trade deal by end June and further chaos and division around UK heading out of EU end of year without a deal. A right mess ensues - only mitigated by temporary measures put in place by the EU to protect EU27 business; and further cuts as austerity bites and Tories refuse to put up taxes to protect the poor and vulnerable from the worst of the cuts. And much realisation among many voters over what we have let ourselves in for for a further four years until the next GE December 2024.
Or it might be shining uplands of plenty for all where unicorns abound. Who knows.
Or it might be shining uplands of plenty for all where unicorns abound. Who knows.
The local paper in my home town has been running a poll on how people will vote. Apart from a brief swing to the LibDems in 2010, Labour returning in 2015, it has always been as red as you can get. If the poll is accurate, ouch for Labour. Almost 30% swing from a safe Labour seat to it being a Conservative seat with a 15% lead.
We'll see what Dec 12th brings but I can't believe it will swing that far, and for an area that was a staunch, steel making Labour area... no, I can't see it.
We'll see what Dec 12th brings but I can't believe it will swing that far, and for an area that was a staunch, steel making Labour area... no, I can't see it.
Beezerk
Money List Winner
My biggest interest will be what happens to strong Labour seats that are in big leave areas.
I really don't know which way they will go.
My Labour MP has a 20,000 majority, I can't really see a swing big enough to unseat her but I wonder if she's just a bit worried ?
The majority in Redcar for Labour in 2017 was 9,485 out of almost 67,000. 64% turnout.
The result; I haven't got a clue. And I'm not sure the polls are particularly accurate.
There's been a significant increase in the number of younger voters registering. I expect that will dent the Tory vote, as the demographics show that the majority of Tory voters are older. But Labour's Brexit stance, balancing on the fence, looks like it might lead to a performance similar to that seen in the council elections. But will that mean some LibDem supporters voting for Labour, if the LibDems are perceived as failing badly? Will the Brexit Party split the Tory vote in the marginals the Tories are targeting?
The polls appear to be narrowing, as they did before the 2017 election. Will the added youth voters make it close enough to be a hung parliament?
I'm favouring a hung parliament, slightly ahead of a Tory govt with a small majority. But equally I can't see there being enough Labour seats to form a minority govt with the help of the SNP and LibDems.
Which brings me back to "I haven't got a clue."
There's been a significant increase in the number of younger voters registering. I expect that will dent the Tory vote, as the demographics show that the majority of Tory voters are older. But Labour's Brexit stance, balancing on the fence, looks like it might lead to a performance similar to that seen in the council elections. But will that mean some LibDem supporters voting for Labour, if the LibDems are perceived as failing badly? Will the Brexit Party split the Tory vote in the marginals the Tories are targeting?
The polls appear to be narrowing, as they did before the 2017 election. Will the added youth voters make it close enough to be a hung parliament?
I'm favouring a hung parliament, slightly ahead of a Tory govt with a small majority. But equally I can't see there being enough Labour seats to form a minority govt with the help of the SNP and LibDems.
Which brings me back to "I haven't got a clue."
?????. Yes, you are right. The location by your name states South Shields so I made that fateful error of making an assumption ?.
I'm in Wansbeck, another solid labour seat. The conservatives have put up a young bloke, born and bred in the area, when to the local schools, local councillor, local mayor. The local mp is not well liked apart from his hard core support so it will be interesting to see if the seismic shift might happen.
I'm not convinced the previously unshakeable red swathes up here will stay entirely red this time. If it happens it will be saying more about JC than Boris.
Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Lib Dems sending out 1,000's of leaflets supporting their candidate in Ross, Sky and Lochbar,
I am certain the folks living in Ross, Skye and Lochaber were not impressed
I am certain the folks living in Ross, Skye and Lochaber were not impressed
Colonel Bogey
Active member
Tory majority of 33. Brexit to get 2 SNP vote to drop a bit (a lot I hope). Libs to pick up a few. Labour vote to collapse.
Bunkermagnet
Journeyman Pro
Dont see any voter response that is not going to stop years of paralysis for whoever is in Government.
TBH I'm sick and tired of being reclassed as either "remain or leaver"
TBH I'm sick and tired of being reclassed as either "remain or leaver"
Grizzly
Well-known member
I think anyone making sweeping predictions about swing in this election is rather missing the point - I think this time around you will get very different election campaigns and outcomes in different areas, partially around the elephant in the room and the general lack of trust in elected politicians, but also around the fact that austerity, whilst necessary, was badly handled and has increased divisions in society. You also have an additional factor, in that the three major parties are led by three of the most unlikeable, if not outright disreputable, people ever to seek high office...
I suspect that Labour and Lib Dem will make gains from the Conservatives in London - indeed, the PM's own seat (where I happen to have the misfortune to live) would probably be vulnerable had either of the others thought to field a local candidate. In the Midlands and North, the opposite will likely be the case, whilst I fear there will be another welling of SNP numbers over the border. Net result? Possibly a moderate Tory majority, but I still have an inkling that they will end up as merely the largest party in another divided house that cannot get anything done.
I suspect that Labour and Lib Dem will make gains from the Conservatives in London - indeed, the PM's own seat (where I happen to have the misfortune to live) would probably be vulnerable had either of the others thought to field a local candidate. In the Midlands and North, the opposite will likely be the case, whilst I fear there will be another welling of SNP numbers over the border. Net result? Possibly a moderate Tory majority, but I still have an inkling that they will end up as merely the largest party in another divided house that cannot get anything done.
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
My son tells me that he hears that a lot of under 30s are registering to vote in Sheffield and all of those that he knows personally who have talked about it with him say that are going to vote Labour - as he is going to. So whilst there seems to be strong Brexit-influenced swing from Labour to Conservative in places such as Sheffield - who knows what newly registered younger voters might do.
This point has been raised at every election I can remember and yet I don't think it is every really made a significant difference. Maybe this will be the year...........
SwingsitlikeHogan
Major Champion
Maybe - my son is certainly very energised - especially over Brexit and the impact that loss of freedom of movement could have on his work sector (music and travelling artists/bands/acts) - and also over the impact of austerity on the poorest and most vulnerable - and he knows a lot more about that than I as he is on the fringe of being part of that sector of the population.
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