Independence Poll

[GreiginFife]

I would "guess" Darth is thinking along the same lines I was and taking into account the potential national debt and its servicing costs.

Look at it this way.

Scotland go independant and take their share of the national debt £110Bn (Your figure)

Portugal has a national debt is around the £122Bn (€153Bn) mark. They have double the population of Scotland at just over 10.5m, so a larger potential tax base and look at the rumors surrounding their economy and potential EU bail-outs.

Not sure we can be compared to Portugal. Different taxation system (i.e. they don't pay the same rates, don't have Nat Ins etc) not sure their VAT system is the same either. Also Portugal doesn't have huge amounts of natural resources, nor exportable commodities that Scotland has (granted mainly Whisky but a lot of it). Yep Portugal has tourism, but so do we to an extent.
Bit apples and bananas comparison IMO.

 

[One Planer]

Not sure we can be compared to Portugal. Different taxation system (i.e. they don't pay the same rates, don't have Nat Ins etc) not sure their VAT system is the same either. Also Portugal doesn't have huge amounts of natural resources, nor exportable commodities that Scotland has (granted mainly Whisky but a lot of it). Yep Portugal has tourism, but so do we to an extent.
Bit apples and bananas comparison IMO.

I see your point.

Would Ireland be a more fair comparison at €123Bn and 4.5M people?

 

[Adi2Dassler]

I would "guess" Darth is thinking along the same lines I was and taking into account the potential national debt and its servicing costs.

Look at it this way.

Scotland go independant and take their share of the national debt £110Bn (Your figure)

Portugal has a national debt is around the £122Bn (€153Bn) mark. They have double the population of Scotland at just over 10.5m, so a larger potential tax base and look at the rumors surrounding their economy and potential EU bail-outs.

Portugal's unemployment figure stands right now at 15%(1,575,000), Scotland 8%(220,000)...even given adjustment we're ahead of the game

I'd like to see how much taxation is in Portugal, do they pay the equivilant of NI/VAT etc?What revenue streams outside of tourism (7.5B Euro pa compared to our 4.5B Euro pa) on Port Wine do they have?...what banking/finance house/assets do they have in comparison to ours?
I guess Standard & Poor and Fitch would rate our ability to pay back loans higher than theirs, allowing borrowing at a lower level.
We've got diverse natural resources with oil/gas/wind/wave/whisky that not many countries can compete with, we've got infrastructure miles ahead of Portugal (move away from the coast and it's like going back 100 years in places)
Our inward investment, even given the current climate, is pretty amazing, with tech companies investing 1/2 Billion £ recently.

 

[Adi2Dassler]

I see your point.

Would Ireland be a more fair comparison at €123Bn and 4.5M people?

If Ireland has access to the same resources and 9% of UKPLC's assets as we do, then yes, it would be a fairer comparison, plus they're ham-strung by the euro farce and we're not.

 

[CMAC]

What politician isn't egotistical?...and care to back up the cripple claim with any facts?

sorry, not privvy to all the financial facts, do you have all the financial facts to support it wont cripple Scotland? I'd be fascinated to see them if you have them?

Common sense dictates that for Scotland to start all its infrastructure from scratch would be multiple billions....someone mentioned Banking, is there any Scottish banks?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Darth...take it steady.
You make claims you can't back up and resort to insults and silliness.

That is the kind of English [big brother] arrogance that really annoys us.
In future please post about things you know not something you think sounds right.
Scotland is leading the world in industries such as renewables, areas of oil extraction and gaming, try to keep up to date and show a bit of respect please.

 

[CMAC]

Darth...take it steady.
You make claims you can't back up and resort to insults and silliness.

That is the kind of English [big brother] arrogance that really annoys us.
In future please post about things you know not something you think sounds right.
Scotland is leading the world in industries such as renewables, areas of oil extraction and gaming, try to keep up to date and show a bit of respect please.

eh???? where did that come from?

Insults? please explain?

English big brother arrogance?

I have an opinion, I said its my opinion, and a pretty mild one at that, I don't understand your hostility

 

[Doon frae Troon]

As I don't understand your arrogance.

 

[CMAC]

As I don't understand your arrogance.

mate, not playing games, either explain your unprovoked attack sensibly as I dont understand, you've got it wrong and I'm happy to discuss it

 

[Doon frae Troon]

'is there any Scottish banks?

 

[Adi2Dassler]

sorry, not privvy to all the financial facts, do you have all the financial facts to support it wont cripple Scotland? I'd be fascinated to see them if you have them?

Common sense dictates that for Scotland to start all its infrastructure from scratch would be multiple billions....someone mentioned Banking, is there any Scottish banks?

Sure, no worries, it's all available on the internet, but your last point first..each and every bit of infrastructure is already in place, I really cannot think of one part we're missing...maybe someone could point one out?And yes, there are Scottish banks, infact I think we have just as many as England with RBS headquarters at Gogar, The Clydesdale too.


....So to start with,the whisky industry alone contributes £800 million annually to the Scottish economy which bypasses Holyrood and goes directly to Westminster, then there's tourism, manufacturing, the financial sector,fishing,renewables,oil,gas, the list goes on...and on.Scotland receives less from the Union than it contributes, according to the UK government's own figures, these are facts that The Uk govt makes readily available on GERS...


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS


Some copy and pasting for those who can't be arsed...
It needs to be pointed out that in the GERS figures a notional share of expenses for "UK national expenditure" is allocated to Scotland even though these monies are not spent in Scotland. The London Olympics and the high speed railway between London and Birmingham are deemed to be "national expenditure". Scotland is also allocated a share of the cost of Trident and an overblown defence budget which is wasted on aircraft carriers without planes and the cancellation of Nimrod after spending billions on the project. The GERS figures don't represent the government expenditure of an independent Scotland accurately, they portray a worst case Westminster scenario. In reality we'd be considerably better off.
In 2010-11, total public sector expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the UK Government, Scottish Government and all other tiers of the public sector, plus a per capita share of debt interest payments, was £63.8 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure.
In 2010-11, total Scottish non-North Sea public sector revenue was estimated at £45.2 billion, (8.3 per cent of total UK non-North Sea revenue). Including a per capita share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £45.9 billion (8.3 per cent of UK total public sector revenue). When an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £53.1 billion (9.6 per cent of UK total public sector revenue).
In 2010-11, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £14.3 billion (12.0 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £13.6 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £6.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue.
In 2010-11, the UK as a whole ran a current budget deficit, including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, of £97.8 billion (6.6 per cent of GDP).
In 2010-11, Scotland’s estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £18.6 billion (15.6 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £17.9 billion (14.7 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £10.7 billion (7.4 per cent of GDP) when a geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.
In 2010-11, the equivalent UK position including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, referred to in the UK Public Sector Accounts as ‘net borrowing’, was a deficit of £136.1 billion (or 9.2 per cent of GDP).





There is also this myth about the benefit society in Scotland...all benefits paid out in Scotland total 40% of all revenues collected from Scotland. Across the UK as a whole, the benefits bill makes up 42% of all expenditure.
Scotland's notional share of Westminster's Department of Defence spending amounts to around £3.5 billion annually. Less than £2 billion of that is actually spent in Scotland....the chances of an independent Scotland spending close to £2Billion of defence are totally remote, nothing like that would be spent, as we'd stop fighting crazy wars on the coat tales of The USA.
Inward investment drom Amazon, Samsung, Taqa, Avaloq, FMC Technologies, Aker, Ineos, PetroChina, Dell, Gamesa, BNY Mellon, State Street, Hewlett-Packard and Mitsubishi Powers Systems have all recently announced investment in Scotland, to the tune of £400 million.
What are we due from the bank bail out?...Scottish GDP in 2008 was an estimated £145 billion. The cost to the UK of the RBS / HBOS bail out in 2008 was £88 billion. However the actual Scottish share on a per capita basis was £8.8 billion, and on the debt accrued by the Scottish registered banks which would have been an independent Scotland's liability is estimated at £2.4 billion....the latter option is generally recognised as the accepted international form, there is precedent which I've mentioned previously.
A recent study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think tank, based on official tax and spending figures, concludes that Scotland's North Sea oil and gas revenues, with other taxes, means it gets no net subsidy from the rest of the UK. And this is based upon shonky Westminster figures, which allocate a notional share of "UK national expenditure" to Scotland even though the money is actually spent in the South East of England. So we're paying for just under 10% of the bloody Olympics.

Westminster could very easily make it clear exactly how much Scotland puts into the Union, and exactly how much we get back in return. After all, it's Westminster which collects all the money and allocates where it goes. We can assume they know who pays what and who gets what. If Scotland was indeed hopelessly dependent on UK handouts, Westminster would publish all the figures and this would pretty much kill the independence debate stone dead, as Scots would be able to quantify those so-called Union benefits in precise detail.

 

[munro007]

Sure, no worries, it's all available on the internet, but your last point first..each and every bit of infrastructure is already in place, I really cannot think of one part we're missing...maybe someone could point one out?And yes, there are Scottish banks, infact I think we have just as many as England with RBS headquarters at Gogar, The Clydesdale too.


....So to start with,the whisky industry alone contributes £800 million annually to the Scottish economy which bypasses Holyrood and goes directly to Westminster, then there's tourism, manufacturing, the financial sector,fishing,renewables,oil,gas, the list goes on...and on.Scotland receives less from the Union than it contributes, according to the UK government's own figures, these are facts that The Uk govt makes readily available on GERS...


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS


Some copy and pasting for those who can't be arsed...
It needs to be pointed out that in the GERS figures a notional share of expenses for "UK national expenditure" is allocated to Scotland even though these monies are not spent in Scotland. The London Olympics and the high speed railway between London and Birmingham are deemed to be "national expenditure". Scotland is also allocated a share of the cost of Trident and an overblown defence budget which is wasted on aircraft carriers without planes and the cancellation of Nimrod after spending billions on the project. The GERS figures don't represent the government expenditure of an independent Scotland accurately, they portray a worst case Westminster scenario. In reality we'd be considerably better off.
In 2010-11, total public sector expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the UK Government, Scottish Government and all other tiers of the public sector, plus a per capita share of debt interest payments, was £63.8 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure.
In 2010-11, total Scottish non-North Sea public sector revenue was estimated at £45.2 billion, (8.3 per cent of total UK non-North Sea revenue). Including a per capita share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £45.9 billion (8.3 per cent of UK total public sector revenue). When an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £53.1 billion (9.6 per cent of UK total public sector revenue).
In 2010-11, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £14.3 billion (12.0 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £13.6 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £6.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue.
In 2010-11, the UK as a whole ran a current budget deficit, including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, of £97.8 billion (6.6 per cent of GDP).
In 2010-11, Scotland’s estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £18.6 billion (15.6 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £17.9 billion (14.7 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £10.7 billion (7.4 per cent of GDP) when a geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.
In 2010-11, the equivalent UK position including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, referred to in the UK Public Sector Accounts as ‘net borrowing’, was a deficit of £136.1 billion (or 9.2 per cent of GDP).





There is also this myth about the benefit society in Scotland...all benefits paid out in Scotland total 40% of all revenues collected from Scotland. Across the UK as a whole, the benefits bill makes up 42% of all expenditure.
Scotland's notional share of Westminster's Department of Defence spending amounts to around £3.5 billion annually. Less than £2 billion of that is actually spent in Scotland....the chances of an independent Scotland spending close to £2Billion of defence are totally remote, nothing like that would be spent, as we'd stop fighting crazy wars on the coat tales of The USA.
Inward investment drom Amazon, Samsung, Taqa, Avaloq, FMC Technologies, Aker, Ineos, PetroChina, Dell, Gamesa, BNY Mellon, State Street, Hewlett-Packard and Mitsubishi Powers Systems have all recently announced investment in Scotland, to the tune of £400 million.
What are we due from the bank bail out?...Scottish GDP in 2008 was an estimated £145 billion. The cost to the UK of the RBS / HBOS bail out in 2008 was £88 billion. However the actual Scottish share on a per capita basis was £8.8 billion, and on the debt accrued by the Scottish registered banks which would have been an independent Scotland's liability is estimated at £2.4 billion....the latter option is generally recognised as the accepted international form, there is precedent which I've mentioned previously.
A recent study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think tank, based on official tax and spending figures, concludes that Scotland's North Sea oil and gas revenues, with other taxes, means it gets no net subsidy from the rest of the UK. And this is based upon shonky Westminster figures, which allocate a notional share of "UK national expenditure" to Scotland even though the money is actually spent in the South East of England. So we're paying for just under 10% of the bloody Olympics.

Westminster could very easily make it clear exactly how much Scotland puts into the Union, and exactly how much we get back in return. After all, it's Westminster which collects all the money and allocates where it goes. We can assume they know who pays what and who gets what. If Scotland was indeed hopelessly dependent on UK handouts, Westminster would publish all the figures and this would pretty much kill the independence debate stone dead, as Scots would be able to quantify those so-called Union benefits in precise detail.

Great read Adi. :thup:

 

[One Planer]

If Ireland has access to the same resources and 9% of UKPLC's assets as we do, then yes, it would be a fairer comparison

Adi, you seem to have all the figures you need to answer my following question.

Do you think and independant Scotland would have the financial stability needed to cut the £110Bn debt and it's servicing costs (£10Bn/year), as well as running a stable country and other international commitments?

If so. What form of taxation and spending/investment package would you expect to see, would there be one? Or would higher tax rates, less spending and investment be the main priority in an effort to control/reduce national debt as it is in many countries, including the UK now?

plus they're ham-strung by the euro farce and we're not.

As we discussed previous. Would Scotland be allowed to use GBP?

Would your view on independence and financial stability be the same if Scotland were to gain independence and opted for the € as GBP was not an option?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Why would Sterling not be an option, it would probably harm the rest of the UK more than Scotland if it were not.

 

[One Planer]

Why would Sterling not be an option, it would probably harm the rest of the UK more than Scotland if it were not.

To quote myself:

The pound sterling is only used in the UNITED KINGDOM of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Plus dependancies).

The Bank of England prints and distributes money for England and Wales. The Bank of Ireland, the First Trust Bank, the Northern Bank, and the Ulster Bank print the notes for Northern Ireland. The Bank of Scotland, the Royal Bank of Scotland, and the Clydesdale Bank print and distribute the notes for Scotland.

If, IF, Scotland attains its independence, it will not longer be part of the United Kingdom.

If it's no longer part of the United Kingdom, how, legally, can it use the currency of a Union it is no longer part of?

Why would it harm the remainder of the UK?

 

[Doon frae Troon]

The amount of full lorries heading North on the A74 and A1 compared to the empty ones heading South.

 

[One Planer]

The amount of full lorries heading North on the A74 and A1 compared to the empty ones heading South.

 

[Adi2Dassler]

Adi, you seem to have all the figures you need to answer my following question.

Do you think and independant Scotland would have the financial stability needed to cut the £110Bn debt and it's servicing costs (£10Bn/year), as well as running a stable country and other international commitments?

If so. What form of taxation and spending/investment package would you expect to see, would there be one? Or would higher tax rates, less spending and investment be the main priority in an effort to control/reduce national debt as it is in many countries, including the UK now?





As we discussed previous. Would Scotland be allowed to use GBP?

Would your view on independence and financial stability be the same if Scotland were to gain independence and opted for the € as GBP was not an option?

Think UKPLC debt is gonna hit £1trillion soon?After looking at the figures again, We're into that for 9%, so £90 Billion.We're currently into the same figure being part of The UK, but we contribute more than our fair share to that pot, so economies of scale suggest we could handle it.
I'm not an accountant, or a politician, I just read the info provided by Westminster and use back of the fag packet sums.

We've already covered the £, it's already ours, we'll continue to use it,no-one has the ability or the powers to tell us not to, it's our choice.The original choice of The SNP was to apply for membership of the Eurozone, and it was one, at the time, I thought was a good one.Hindsight is 20/20,though and we dodged a bullet with that one.

The one thing to remember is that if we obtain independence, it doesn't automatically follow that The SNP will be our ruling party adifinitum...they'll probably win the following national election, but I'd guess after that Scottish Labour (after a major revamp and return to it's original values) would re-assert itself as the main party of Scotland....we're a left-leaning nation,and I'd guess we'd continue to be so, so lower taxes for the poorer, higher taxes for the richer, but mixed with highly competitive taxes for business.

 

[One Planer]

We've already covered the £, it's already ours, we'll continue to use it,no-one has the ability or the powers to tell us not to

Yes, £Sterling is your currency as part of the union! Leave the union, leave the currency!

 

[Adi2Dassler]

Yes, £Sterling is your currency as part of the union! Leave the union, leave the currency!

Mate, you've been given my answer, it's the same answer as Mervyn King would give, the same answer as Gideon Osbourne would give, the same answer as pretty much anyone would give, yet you chose to continue to give the wrong answer!

There are two options, continue to use it, or pay us 9% of the value of The Bank of England and we'll walk away.The second one really isn't an option as RUK don't have anything like that kind of cash(£22 Trillion), especially when you remove the overpaying Scots taxpayer from the fund.

So we'll continue to use our own currency.