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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

ColchesterFC said:
This is indeed good news. Fingers crossed it continues once the effects of Xmas mixing is added to the numbers.

I think it's definitely time for the number of cases to be downgraded in terms of importance in the figures. Yes, they will affect workplaces with people isolating but don't seem to be correlating to hospitalisations and deaths.

As an example the rolling 7 day average for total cases in the UK is 872.5 per 100k population, in Germany it is 306.3 and in France 551.9. The rolling 7 day average for deaths in those countries is UK - 84.4, Germany - 238 and France - 177.4. We are testing far more than other countries so will be finding more cases but fortunately those cases do not seem to be leading to deaths. We have similar vaccine rollout success as the other two countries but are seeing far fewer deaths.

Over the last 7 days Germany have had almost three times as many deaths as UK and France twice as many. Is there any logical reason for this with Omicron being milder than previous versions? Is it just because Germany and France did better at the start of the pandemic in protecting the vulnerable and therefore have more in that category alive now who are being seriously affected, whereas we had very high numbers at the start and therefore have fewer vulnerable people now to get badly affected? In the early stages our numbers of deaths was horrendous compared to most other countries in Europe (bar probably Italy) but now others such as France and Germany are, unfortunately, catching up.
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Those reasons probably all apply. Basically, it is a degree of catch-up. The UK front-loaded its mortality, and people can't die again. Germany currently has high death rates in the most elderly groups who have already been savaged here. That excess was greatest in the initial peak, but also to some degree at the start of this year too.

Omicron is milder, but still not mild, and if the common cold or flu can push a vulnerable person over, then Omicron certainly can. Although the initial upper respiratory infection is generally milder, we don't know that the secondary inflammatory complications are proportionately milder, and that is what kills most younger and middle aged people who die of Covid.

Greater testing is part of the explanation of more cases here, although we are running short of testing kit here, despite many expensive deals with companies of varying reputation.

Case definition is another issue. The UK counts cases based on positive tests, not clinical presentations. Germany does the opposite, so since the clinically symptomatic cases are only a fraction of those who test positive, it really has a lot more "true" cases and the death rate is higher for that reason.

These two graphics use slightly different scales, Germany has a population approx 24% larger than the UK:

Screenshot 2021-12-29 at 11.20.05.pngScreenshot 2021-12-29 at 11.19.32.png
 
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Imurg said:
Stay positive but be negative.....if you see what I mean.....;)

USA have cut the isolation ti e down to 5 days and many are calling for it here...
Surely 5 days isn't enough....Tashy is an example.
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missis T said “ your deffo an example “ ?
 
PNWokingham said:
This is encouraging. We are not seeing a massive jump in hospitalisations due to omicron that some experts expected. Of the 6245 beds occupied by covid patients on 21 Dec, nearly 30% are "incidental" covid - ie they are in for something else but tested positive. The total 6245 was only up by 259 the previosus week and only 45 of this increase (circa 20%) were admitted because of covid.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/
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Possibly good news - and it's likely confirmation - 'broadcast' some time ago - that Omicron will (percentage-wise) require fewer hospitalisations - thus less strain on NHS resources. But I'm not entirely convinced that excluding 'incidental' covid is fully valid. I'd be pretty certain that 'having' Covid likely contributed to why some/many had to be admitted!
Also remember with that there's a lag of 4-5 days between many/most of the cases being identified and any subsequent hospitalisation. So, apart from the 'incidental' cases, that snapshot corresponded a couple of days before admissions began to rise significantly. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
 
SammmeBee said:
No isolation at all would be far better and we could just all go about our lives as we choose for ourselves…..
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Except for those 'we' infect who do require hospitalisation - which will likely be considerably more than now. Nothing wrong with attempting to get to 'herd immunity', but over time, not 'instantaneously' with consequences for infrastructure.
 
ColchesterFC said:
This is indeed good news. Fingers crossed it continues once the effects of Xmas mixing is added to the numbers.

I think it's definitely time for the number of cases to be downgraded in terms of importance in the figures. Yes, they will affect workplaces with people isolating but don't seem to be correlating to hospitalisations and deaths.

As an example the rolling 7 day average for total cases in the UK is 872.5 per 100k population, in Germany it is 306.3 and in France 551.9. The rolling 7 day average for deaths in those countries is UK - 84.4, Germany - 238 and France - 177.4. We are testing far more than other countries so will be finding more cases but fortunately those cases do not seem to be leading to deaths. We have similar vaccine rollout success as the other two countries but are seeing far fewer deaths.
Where are you getting those
Over the last 7 days Germany have had almost three times as many deaths as UK and France twice as many. Is there any logical reason for this with Omicron being milder than previous versions? Is it just because Germany and France did better at the start of the pandemic in protecting the vulnerable and therefore have more in that category alive now who are being seriously affected, whereas we had very high numbers at the start and therefore have fewer vulnerable people now to get badly affected? In the early stages our numbers of deaths was horrendous compared to most other countries in Europe (bar probably Italy) but now others such as France and Germany are, unfortunately, catching up.
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Where are you getting those numbers from? Only a couple bear any resemblence to the numbers on this chart - even having for converting from Weekly to Daily! :rolleyes:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Note: Table info will change day to day, so 'conclusions' are only valid today!
As for causes of differences, I suspect the percentages of Omicron vs Delta are the differences between the countries numbers. If you look at the %change columns (over previous 7 days and on the above chart), you'll see UK cases increase, but deaths decrease; Spain cases double but Deaths almost static. France (and Italy) similar but less pronounced. Germany Cases and Deaths reduced almost equally (legislation?).

So, to me, it's likely that the prevalence of Omicron is at 'a different point in the curve' with UK being ahead of Spain ahead of France and Italy and German yet to be affected by Omicron surge.
 
Foxholer said:
Where are you getting those numbers from? Only a couple bear any resemblence to the numbers on this chart https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table
As for causes of differences, I suspect the percentages of Omicron vs Delta are the differences between the countries numbers. If you look at the %change columns (over previous 7 days), you'll see UK cases increase, but deaths decrease; Spain cases double but Deaths almost static. France (and Italy) similar but less pronounced. Germany Cases and Deaths reduced almost equally (legislation?).

So, to me, it's likely that the prevalence of Omicron is at 'a different point in the curve' with UK being ahead of Spain ahead of France and Italy and German yet to be affected by Omicron surge.
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This one for the case rates.....

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

And this one for the deaths....

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day
 
ColchesterFC said:
This one for the case rates.....

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

And this one for the deaths....

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-7-day
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H'mm. Getting data from different sources is fraught with potential/possible 'accuracy' issues!
The Worldometers one I refered to above has all the numbers (and charts) in a single place and has more than enough flexibility (except, perhaps, only 2 days Daily history) to use as a single ref.
Edit.....
My comments about different countries being at different stages of Omicron vs Delta still stands.
 
Foxholer said:
H'mm. Getting data from different sources is fraught with potential/possible 'accuracy' issues!
The Worldometers one I refered to above has all the numbers (and charts) in a single place and has more than enough flexibility (except, perhaps, only 2 days Daily history) to use as a single ref.
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Will give it a look. I Googled "Covid deaths 7 day average by country" and something similar for cases and got those two links.
 
This is a graphic taken from Our World in Data. It shows excess deaths, but can be read as a picture of the time dynamic of the pandemic in UK vs Germany (started sooner here, Germany catching up a bit now), but also as a crude measure of the overall impact - UK around 140k excess deaths out of 67 million, Germany around 110k out of 83 million. That UK number also lines up with the total official Covid death numbers, suggesting that if any deaths were counted as attributed to Covid but really not due to it, there was probably a similar number moving in the opposite direction, whether of direct or indirect causation.

Screenshot 2021-12-29 at 12.57.40.png
 
Case rates beat their daily rate record by 50% and this thread doesn’t light up like a Christmas Tree?
mmmmmmmmm………………….
 
D-S said:
Case rates beat their daily rate record by 50% and this thread doesn’t light up like a Christmas Tree?
mmmmmmmmm………………….
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Case rates haven't been the 'stat of most concern' for quite some time.
With Delta, case increases forwarned likely death increases; not so with Omicron.
Mind you, stats of 'Serious/Critical' aka ICU/Ventilated cases hasn't changed for 3 consecutive days because of Christmas. Deaths (57) are definitely reported and down on a week ago.
 
drdel said:
Bunch of anti-vaxxers attacked a vaccination centre in Milton Keynes, and stole stuff. Words fail me.
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Obviously not. ;)
But it's certainly understand some folk! I'd be interested to actually find out the reasons why they are anti-vax though. Reports about the US ones leave me wondering how the 'richest country in the world' can have so many idiots in it!
 
drdel said:
Bunch of anti-vaxxers attacked a vaccination centre in Milton Keynes, and stole stuff. Words fail me.
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Seems they were trying to target the centre where Johnson was going or went but instead went to a testing centre - seems a few vigilante’s decided to dish out some stuff to them
 
hovis said:
Did you tests start to fade away or was is strong line one day and gone the next?
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The first test I did was very faint positive after 14 minutes. I went straight out for a PCR which confimed this the following day. After five days I did a test and it was positive after a few seconds. A strong positive if there is such a thing. Day six exactly the same. Yesterday it was very faint. Today lovely news indeed.
Missis T has not had one single positive LFT test. Her initial was negative. But her PCR showed positive.
We found it interesting that a scientist said a few days ago she would encourage people when doing a LFT to swab the back of there throat as in some people who have COVID, it has not reached there nose but is in there throats.
 
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