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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Liverpoolphil said:
Going into our local Co Op this morning and it looks like some just aren’t going to bother with masks - the staff said it was the same demographic- the under 30’s , you could see that this morning as well , the guys walking in to the shop just not wearing , when challenged- its the same “meh” response
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Perhaps the store should/could provide masks free. It's likely the 'can't be bovvered' attitude applies to acquiring masks as well.
My nearest large store does, and I've not seen anyone in it not wearing a mask (save those exempted).
 
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Swinglowandslow said:
Yea, course, it's the store's responsibility ?
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Did I state/imply that? Perhaps 'could' would have been a better term/alternative to 'should' too - duly amended on original for (keen) misinterpreters!
To quote another store's catchline....Every Little Helps.
 
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Odd that the French are placing additional restrictions for visitors from the UK.
For the past 3 days cases there are 65k+ and deaths 150+.
If this isn’t Omicron driven already then they’re in for a big shock when that wave breaks there.
 
D-S said:
Odd that the French are placing additional restrictions for visitors from the UK.
For the past 3 days cases there are 65k+ and deaths 150+.
If this isn’t Omicron driven already then they’re in for a big shock when that wave breaks there.
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And I don't believe they have as broad a test capability/capacity: ' test less and see less'.
 
woofers said:
Source ?? Because reading in The Times this morning it’s anything but that.
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I suspect it's from this report....

South Africa's health minister says his government believes vaccines and a high level of prior Covid-19 infection are contributing to the wave of milder disease caused by the Omicron variant.

There have been some early suggestions that the Omicron variant driving the country's fourth wave is causing a less severe illness than previous variants in South Africa.

But Joe Phaala told reporters on Friday that the government does not believe the variant is necessarily less virulent than previous waves of the virus.

He said the country was benefiting from the combination of vaccinations and the "natural immunity of people who have already had contact with the virus".

Michelle Groome, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, added that there had been an uptick in Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths in recent days.

Vaccination levels in South Africa are high by continental standards, with 44% of the population having received at least one jab, though this is below the government's target to vaccinate 67% of the population by the end of 2021.
 
road2ruin said:
I suspect it's from this report....

South Africa's health minister says his government believes vaccines and a high level of prior Covid-19 infection are contributing to the wave of milder disease caused by the Omicron variant.

There have been some early suggestions that the Omicron variant driving the country's fourth wave is causing a less severe illness than previous variants in South Africa.

But Joe Phaala told reporters on Friday that the government does not believe the variant is necessarily less virulent than previous waves of the virus.

He said the country was benefiting from the combination of vaccinations and the "natural immunity of people who have already had contact with the virus".

Michelle Groome, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, added that there had been an uptick in Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths in recent days.

Vaccination levels in South Africa are high by continental standards, with 44% of the population having received at least one jab, though this is below the government's target to vaccinate 67% of the population by the end of 2021.
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I hope they are right, but from a public health response point of view, it is unwise to rely on early observations which may not fully reflect the full picture.
 
I find pretty disgraceful, if not disgusting, the various recent and current attacks on Chris Whitty being made by some media; the usual suspects, and some others of a certain bent. Shameful - and a dangerous road to set off down. Those who are in a position to condemn these attacks should do so without caveat and hesitation.
 
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road2ruin said:
I suspect it's from this report....

South Africa's health minister says his government believes vaccines and a high level of prior Covid-19 infection are contributing to the wave of milder disease caused by the Omicron variant.

There have been some early suggestions that the Omicron variant driving the country's fourth wave is causing a less severe illness than previous variants in South Africa.

But Joe Phaala told reporters on Friday that the government does not believe the variant is necessarily less virulent than previous waves of the virus.

He said the country was benefiting from the combination of vaccinations and the "natural immunity of people who have already had contact with the virus".

Michelle Groome, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, added that there had been an uptick in Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths in recent days.

Vaccination levels in South Africa are high by continental standards, with 44% of the population having received at least one jab, though this is below the government's target to vaccinate 67% of the population by the end of 2021.
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I think Prof Whitty gave a detaled explanation as to why a comparison with SA was unwise during the last broadcast
 
drdel said:
I think Prof Whitty gave a detaled explanation as to why a comparison with SA was unwise during the last broadcast
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I agree, it was more about the leval of vitriol that was aimed at other countries by the African nations and WHO for imposting travel bans on what they put forward was a milder form of covid to then state that this is not the case.
 
Professor Doom (Ferguson) and his cronies have been at it again, apparently they have modelled scenarios whereby we could be looking at 5,000 deaths per day! I wonder why they still give this guy any air time, whilst I appreciate that they are only models I don't think he's been in the ballpark of being right in any of them so far and yet he is still listened to. To give that figure context that is 4 times the level of deaths we had during the peak of the second wave before vaccines had been rolled out. If that isn't scaremongering I don't know what is although I guess he's just trying to stay relevant in order to justify his wage packet.
 
road2ruin said:
Professor Doom (Ferguson) and his cronies have been at it again, apparently they have modelled scenarios whereby we could be looking at 5,000 deaths per day! I wonder why they still give this guy any air time, whilst I appreciate that they are only models I don't think he's been in the ballpark of being right in any of them so far and yet he is still listened to. To give that figure context that is 4 times the level of deaths we had during the peak of the second wave before vaccines had been rolled out. If that isn't scaremongering I don't know what is although I guess he's just trying to stay relevant in order to justify his wage packet.
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Not surprising if you do anything of the nature of worst case; most likely, and best possible type modelling. And what is most important with all modelling are the assumptions made for the scenarios and the level of uncertainty around each. Then you decide what you want to mitigate against and put contingencies in place for.

it’s not rocket science - well it kind of is as I’ve done plenty of that ?
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Not surprising if you do anything of the nature of worst case; most likely, and best possible type modelling. And what is most important with all modelling are the assumptions made for the scenarios and the level of uncertainty around each. Then you decide what you want to mitigate against and put contingencies in place for.

it’s not rocket science - well it kind of is as I’ve done plenty of that ?
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Seems like quite a good racket to get involved in. Pick a pretty horrendous number, treble it to ensure you attract some attention to get in the press and then avoid any criticism of (multiple) failures by claiming that it's 'just modelling of what could happen'.
 
road2ruin said:
Professor Doom (Ferguson) and his cronies have been at it again, apparently they have modelled scenarios whereby we could be looking at 5,000 deaths per day! I wonder why they still give this guy any air time, whilst I appreciate that they are only models I don't think he's been in the ballpark of being right in any of them so far and yet he is still listened to. To give that figure context that is 4 times the level of deaths we had during the peak of the second wave before vaccines had been rolled out. If that isn't scaremongering I don't know what is although I guess he's just trying to stay relevant in order to justify his wage packet.
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You do realise how these models work, don't you? There are assumptions about the relationship between observed cases and actual cases (it is widely agreed observed numbers are an underestimate), transmissibility, how long that trajectory will last, case fatality rate etc etc etc. Put it all in the spreadsheet and Excel throws out a range of numbers. The worst case one gets presented in the Mail as "DR LOCKDOWN CLAIMS 5000 WILL DIE EVERY DAY", when the actual report contains a more nuanced set of scenarios with sensitivity analyses (i.e. which assumption or factor drive the numbers).

Also, he is not trying to "be right". He does not work for Ladbrokes. He is modelling what would happen under certain scenarios, and the intent is to inform where actions can be taken to mitigate some of those.

The key assumptions appear to be:

1. The virulence of omicron compared to delta. They seems to have assumed a worst case that omicron is as virulent as delta. This seems pessimistic but is the pivotal assumption. Worst case is the safest to start from.

2. the R-value for transmissibility. The assumption is that omicron is 5.4 times delta. This is estimated from the doubling time for cases, so seems sound. There are 700 cases a day right now, and with a doubling time of 2 days, we would be at 10000 in 8 days. In terms of implementing public policy, that means doing something right now, if not sooner.

He also said that if the assumption that omicron is not as severe as delta is borne out, "it looks like hospital admissions may only peak at 2,000 to 3,000 a day, then it’s possible that something like plan B – maybe a little bit plan B-plus – might be sufficient, given the government’s overall motivation to do the minimum possible to avoid the NHS being completely overwhelmed,”.

I think this is a reasonable approach to modelling, so long as people read a bit past the Daily Mail headlines.

Edit: The actual report
 
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Is there any reason to publish the official number of omricon infections when it's quite clear its caused at least 40,000 in the last day alone.
 
garyinderry said:
Is there any reason to publish the official number of omricon infections when it's quite clear its caused at least 40,000 in the last day alone.
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The mainstream media publish whatever fits the narrative they want. Currently they want to emphasise a plague of biblical proportions crossing the world, they want to pressure towards more restrictions and lockdowns, they would love to see Xmas cancelled then they can report aobout what a disgrace it is that we have more restrictions, look at the hardship and how upsetting the cancel Xmas.

Not underplaying the seriousness of the situation but given up on the media providing impartial annalysis and insight.
 
drdel said:
And I don't believe they have as broad a test capability/capacity: ' test less and see less'.
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While testing may be(is definitely) less, so is Death Rate (a rather more important stat imo!) - even with a significant number more cases deemed 'Serious/Critical'.
A touch of 'nationalism'/Francophobia involved in your post?
Edit: FWIW, key figures for Germany appear more in line with (actually 'better than') France's than UK's. I'm inclined to think population density could well be a factor.
 
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