Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[drdel]

While testing may be(is definitely) less, so is Death Rate (a rather more important stat imo!) - even with a significant number more cases deemed 'Serious/Critical'.
A touch of 'nationalism'/Francophobia involved in your post?
Edit: FWIW, key figures for Germany appear more in line with (actually 'better than') France's than UK's. I'm inclined to think population density could well be a factor.

With a younger population you'd expect less fatalities.

You do realise how these models work, don't you? There are assumptions about the relationship between observed cases and actual cases (it is widely agreed observed numbers are an underestimate), transmissibility, how long that trajectory will last, case fatality rate etc etc etc. Put it all in the spreadsheet and Excel throws out a range of numbers. The worst case one gets presented in the Mail as "DR LOCKDOWN CLAIMS 5000 WILL DIE EVERY DAY", when the actual report contains a more nuanced set of scenarios with sensitivity analyses (i.e. which assumption or factor drive the numbers).

Also, he is not trying to "be right". He does not work for Ladbrokes. He is modelling what would happen under certain scenarios, and the intent is to inform where actions can be taken to mitigate some of those.

The key assumptions appear to be:

1. The virulence of omicron compared to delta. They seems to have assumed a worst case that omicron is as virulent as delta. This seems pessimistic but is the pivotal assumption. Worst case is the safest to start from.

2. the R-value for transmissibility. The assumption is that omicron is 5.4 times delta. This is estimated from the doubling time for cases, so seems sound. There are 700 cases a day right now, and with a doubling time of 2 days, we would be at 10000 in 8 days. In terms of implementing public policy, that means doing something right now, if not sooner.

He also said that if the assumption that omicron is not as severe as delta is borne out, "it looks like hospital admissions may only peak at 2,000 to 3,000 a day, then it’s possible that something like plan B – maybe a little bit plan B-plus – might be sufficient, given the government’s overall motivation to do the minimum possible to avoid the NHS being completely overwhelmed,”.

I think this is a reasonable approach to modelling, so long as people read a bit past the Daily Mail headlines.

Edit: The actual report

I'd hope they are using the more current modelling tools of simulation than flipping Excel .

 

[Foxholer]

With a younger population you'd expect less fatalities.

Which would make UK figures seem even worse! Avg age in UK < France < Germany! Yet death rates are the reverse!
With 'throw away' comments that are demonstrably wrong. you seem to be in danger of over-stretching your believability/integrity!


Btw. Excel CAN be an excellent tool for quite sophisticated modelling applications - but does need in-depth expertise to be so! It's not, in/of itself a particularly good handler of large amounts of data though!

 

[drdel]

Which would make UK figures seem even worse! Avg age in UK < France < Germany! Yet death rates are the reverse!
With 'throw away' comments that are demonstrably wrong. you seem to be in danger of over-stretching your believability/integrity!


Btw. Excel CAN be an excellent tool for quite sophisticated modelling applications - but does need in-depth expertise to be so! It's not, in/of itself a particularly good handler of large amounts of data though!

Yes it was a throw away comment e.g a brief opinion for a thread on a Forum , rather than an opus for an academic journal, so if course you can poke holes in the sentence. Do some research.

I know you like the last word but give it a rest for Christmas!

Having taught many a postgraduate students and PhD researchers simulation research methods I'm well aware of spreadsheets and they rarely get built with good transferable 'program' principles, nor do they handle the likes of pdf's well.

 

[Foxholer]

Yes it was a throw away comment e.g a brief opinion for a thread on a Forum , rather than an opus for an academic journal, so if course you can poke holes in the sentence....

So you think posting BS on here is ok?! Your credibility has sunk even further!

...Do some research...

It took less than a minute of 'research' to identify the fallacy of your 'age' argument! I suggest it's YOU who should do a bit of research before posting!

...
...I'm well aware of spreadsheets and they rarely get built with good transferable 'program' principles, nor do they handle the likes of pdf's well.

Agreed. But my previous statement still stands!
Btw/FWIW. As a professional developer for over 40 years, including a couple of years training others, I agree re your 'good transferable 'program' principles'. Unfortunately though, the reason for poor quality academic apps is generally a different (narrow) perspective of what the purpose of the 'program' is. In almost all academic/research oriented 'applications' it's 'getting the results' that's the over-riding objective. Maintainability/quality/performance is rarely, if ever, a consideration. It's totally different in the commercial world! Perhaps that's their supervisor's fault!

I know you like the last word but give it a rest for Christmas!

Surely that's what Lent is for!
AND FWIW....ZZZZZZZZ

 

[spongebob59]

Laura K Twitter

Important leak to my colleague Jim tonight below - SAGE minutes suggest tougher restrictions needed before New Year if we're to avoid 3k people going to hospital every day

 

[road2ruin]

Laura K Twitter

Important leak to my colleague Jim tonight below - SAGE minutes suggest tougher restrictions needed before New Year if we're to avoid 3k people going to hospital every day

I read this thread on Twitter earlier. SAGE ideally want no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing all non-essential retail however as a minimum are recommending going back to closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households indoors.

Obviously I cannot do anything if they close the pubs etc but I’ll happily ignore all bans on indoor mixing with friends and family. We will make the decisions on what we think is sensible and given that most are now boostered up I see no reason to follow those restrictions.

 

[Hobbit]

I read this thread on Twitter earlier. SAGE ideally want no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing all non-essential retail however as a minimum are recommending going back to closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households indoors.

Obviously I cannot do anything I’d they close the pubs but I’ll happily ignore all bans on indoor mixing with friends and family. We will make the decisions on what we think is sensible and given that most are now boostered up I see no reason to follow those restrictions.

I guess if your choice let’s you down, you and your family will refuse medical treatment?

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Laura K Twitter

Important leak to my colleague Jim tonight below - SAGE minutes suggest tougher restrictions needed before New Year if we're to avoid 3k people going to hospital every day

They will be hard pushed to bring another lockdown as such with everything riding on the vaccines

Cases maybe high but deaths are nowhere near the level we had this time last year

We were having close to 1000 deaths a day - right now it’s around 100

 

[road2ruin]

I guess if your choice let’s you down, you and your family will refuse medical treatment?

Having had two vaccines and the booster?! What would have been the point in that then?

And in answer to you question, no I wouldn’t, I’d happily take it if required.

 

[Hobbit]

Having had two vaccines and the booster?! What would have been the point in that then?

And in answer to you question, no I wouldn’t, I’d happily take it if required.

Figures…

 

[Foxholer]

I read this thread on Twitter earlier. SAGE ideally want no mixing whatsoever indoors and closing all non-essential retail however as a minimum are recommending going back to closing indoor hospitality and back to six people/two households indoors.

Obviously I cannot do anything if they close the pubs etc but I’ll happily ignore all bans on indoor mixing with friends and family. We will make the decisions on what we think is sensible and given that most are now boostered up I see no reason to follow those restrictions.

Not actually unreasonable, but a potentially dangerous change of attitude for ongoing attitudes to decrees and laws - particularly by descendents - in the future! Heading towards the, at times ridiculous US attitude that's (claimed to be) allowed by their Constitution/Bill of Rights!

 

[D-S]

Not actually unreasonable, but a potentially dangerous change of attitude for ongoing attitudes to decrees and laws - particularly by descendents - in the future! Heading towards the, at times ridiculous US attitude that's (claimed to be) allowed by their Constitution/Bill of Rights!

’Not exactly unreasonable’ but perhaps a reasonable reaction to unreasonable restrictions.
Note re my earlier point, recent (the last 3 days) death rates are higher in France than in the UK.

 

[Foxholer]

’Not exactly unreasonable’ but perhaps a reasonable reaction to unreasonable restrictions.
...

Who deems them 'unreasonable' though! And is that a societal conclusion? Or simply an 'attitude'! Earlier posts about 'wearing of masks' indicate instances of the latter! I still believe the UK public are willing to accept pretty severe restrictions 'for the greater good'. But blatant flouting of the rules by 'the political class' will be the fastest way to 'anarchy' imo!
And, as I've posted before, I believe Cummings's actions - and the 'non-action' by Boris started the trend!

Btw. Apologies if this seems is a bit 'political'. It's not really meant to be; simply a (far hunbler) AJP Taylor style description of events/causes!

’...
Note re my earlier point, recent (the last 3 days) death rates are higher in France than in the UK.

Same (more-so) in Germany! Could be any 1, or more, of many reasons that I won't speculate about.

 

[road2ruin]

Who deems them 'unreasonable' though! And is that a societal conclusion? Or simply an 'attitude'! Earlier posts about 'wearing of masks' indicate instances of the latter! I still believe the UK public are willing to accept pretty severe restrictions 'for the greater good'. But blatant flouting of the rules by 'the political class' will be the fastest way to 'anarchy' imo!
And, as I've posted before, I believe Cummings's actions - and the 'non-action' by Boris started the trend

Personally, I have no issues with masks, they’re annoying but have always worn them and to be honest will continue as they’re no great effort and they do not impact on my life.

In terms of the political classes flouting the rules, I really don’t care. They always have and will always continue to do so however their rule breaking doesn’t have any bearing on whether I follow the rules or not although I would agree that for a large number of people this will now be an excuse given.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Personally, I have no issues with masks, they’re annoying but have always worn them and to be honest will continue as they’re no great effort and they do not impact on my life.

In terms of the political classes flouting the rules, I really don’t care. They always have and will always continue to do so however their rule breaking doesn’t have any bearing on whether I follow the rules or not although I would agree that for a large number of people this will now be an excuse given.

I have to wear a mask throughout the day, on the train home and so wearing it in the shops isn't a burden. It is clear so many are still prepared to not wear a mask and trust any jabs they have will protect them. I wish I was allowed to show them around the unit. People still seem blase and because Omicrom doesn't seem to be killing too many (to date) and it is reported not to be too serious symptoms wise they are prepared to take the risk

 

[Foxholer]

...
In terms of the political classes flouting the rules, I really don’t care. They always have and will always continue to do so however their rule breaking doesn’t have any bearing on whether I follow the rules or not although I would agree that for a large number of people this will now be an excuse given.

It's the arrogant 'Do as we say, not as we do' approach that makes me mad!
While I sympathise with some cases, there are some that are some 'couldn't give a damn' blatant p-taking ones that 'get away with it' that really get up my nose - Ive already mentioned the, for me, 'worst' offender!

 

[road2ruin]

I have to wear a mask throughout the day, on the train home and so wearing it in the shops isn't a burden. It is clear so many are still prepared to not wear a mask and trust any jabs they have will protect them. I wish I was allowed to show them around the unit. People still seem blase and because Omicrom doesn't seem to be killing too many (to date) and it is reported not to be too serious symptoms wise they are prepared to take the risk

But the stats say that the vast majority in your unit are those who have chosen to go down the route of not taking the opportunity of a vaccination. I’m not suggesting that the mask less are right however trusting the jabs to protect us is exactly what we are hoping for.

 

[road2ruin]

It's the arrogant 'Do as we say, not as we do' approach that makes me mad!
While I sympathise with some cases, there are some that are some 'couldn't give a damn' blatant p-taking ones that 'get away with it' that really get up my nose - Ive already mentioned the, for me, 'worst' offender!

I don’t disagree at all, I was only speaking from a personal point of view. Looking at the wider optic it’s a complete disaster for the Government as they’ll now have large numbers who might well have followed the rules who now just don’t care as why should they if those who make the rules don’t. You only have to listen to a radio phone in for an hour or so to know that those types of feeling aren’t a minority.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

But the stats say that the vast majority in your unit are those who have chosen to go down the route of not taking the opportunity of a vaccination. I’m not suggesting that the mask less are right however trusting the jabs to protect us is exactly what we are hoping for.

Not altogether true. A number in and ventilated at the moment are double vaxxed and relatively young - one with no underlying co-morbidities. I have come to the conclusion that covid survival and how severely you get it is a roll of the dice. The hardest part is seeing the effect it has on the patient, including the long term damage, and to the families is why I get so annoyed with people flouting a simple request to put a mask on. Not that great a hardship and surely now is the time to be compliant rather than risk starting 2022 in lockdown

 

[road2ruin]

Not altogether true. A number in and ventilated at the moment are double vaxxed and relatively young - one with no underlying co-morbidities. I have come to the conclusion that covid survival and how severely you get it is a roll of the dice.

I appreciate you are there so you see it however I did say ‘the vast majority’ not all. There are always going to be those who are (thankfully) in a very small minority who get this and do suffer regardless of their age/health however that’s the same with all diseases isn’t it?