Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The biggest UK order is for AZ/Oxford. There are also orders for Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson (due to report trial results soon), Valneva and Novavax and a small order for Moderna (first batch due in April). Finally there is an order for GSK/Sanofi but it has disappointed in trials and may be a turkey. There is enough stuff ordered, but the supply dates might become a problem. I think we might have a dip coming very soon, so scaling up will stall.

...and what happens when the ‘first receivers‘ 12 weeks is up and they start flowing in to get their 2nd...like we find in golf with a two tee start - as soon as those starting on the 10th complete the 18th the numbers starting on the 1st drops to accommodate those coming round because there is only so much capacity I.e. one 1st tee. Will we have the capacity of both vaccine and resources to cope with ‘parallel vaccinating’...for both 1st and 2nd vaccinations.

If we build capacity in advance of the 12weeks pt as I am sure we are then we will get increased 1st vaccination for a while - which will be great - but then that 1st vaccination rate will drop significantly as the 2nd vaccinations are given.

 

[SteveW86]

...and what happens when the ‘first receivers‘ 12 weeks is up and they start flowing in to get their 2nd...like we find in golf with a two tee start - as soon as those starting on the 10th complete the 18th the numbers starting on the 1st drops to accommodate those coming round because there is only so much capacity I.e. one 1st tee. Will we have the capacity of both vaccine and resources to cope with ‘parallel vaccinating’...for both 1st and 2nd vaccinations.

If we build capacity in advance of the 12weeks pt as I am sure we are then we will get increased 1st vaccination for a while - which will be great - but then that 1st vaccination rate will drop significantly as the 2nd vaccinations are given.

Is it feasible to have more trained people and then have separate first and second dose centres?

If the supply rate slows down then this might be the deciding factor though

 

[bobmac]

If we build capacity in advance of the 12weeks pt as I am sure we are then we will get increased 1st vaccination for a while - which will be great - but then that 1st vaccination rate will drop significantly as the 2nd vaccinations are given.

Why?

 

[road2ruin]

So strong rumours coming out this morning that schools will remain shut until after Easter holidays at the earliest and the science lot pushing for May.

From a personal point of view this would be a disaster for our daughter having missed almost half of Year 1 and now a similar amount of Year 2. Couple with her being an August baby there is no way she’ll be ready for the step up to Primary School in August. If this announcement is made we’ve already made the decision to investigate whether we can keep her in Year 2 for another year to try and catch up.

There is no way we can keep the home schooling going until Easter so this term will be a write off.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Why?

A combination of supply, the main issue, and people to administer it.

There was a doctor in my area on the local news at the end of last week advising that they were not going to receive any doses this week. They've completed the over 80's, were looking to start on the 70's group but they will have to wait now. Doses were being redirected to other areas who are not as advanced. If supply was not an issue then they would stil be receiving deliveries and could plough ahead. Multiply that problem when you are looking to jab two groups at once.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Why?

Simply capacity. If we build capacity and 1st vaccinate to that capacity, then as soon as 2nd vaccine tranche starts coming in the volume of 1st vaccinations must drop.

 

[bobmac]

Simply capacity. If we build capacity and 1st vaccinate to that capacity, then as soon as 2nd vaccine tranche starts coming in the volume of 1st vaccinations must drop.

The second vaccine will not be due until 11-12 weeks after the first.
Vaccinations did not begin until 8th December which means they will expect their second dose 11-12 weeks after that so the end of February.
How many people will that involve and how many 1st dose vaccinations will be given out daily by then?
We're currently vaccinating just under half a million people per day so 3 1/2 million people per week.
How many people were vaccinated in the first week and will need their second dose?

I would suggest not a significant number compared to how many vaccinations we will be getting in 5 weeks time (staff and supply allowing)
Besides, if you've thought about a potential problem arising, you can bet your house that the experts in this field have thought of it too.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

The second vaccine will not be due until 11-12 weeks after the first.
Vaccinations did not begin until 8th December which means they will expect their second dose 11-12 weeks after that so the end of February.
How many people will that involve and how many 1st dose vaccinations will be given out daily by then?
We're currently vaccinating just under half a million people per day so 3 1/2 million people per week.
How many people were vaccinated in the first week and will need their second dose?

I would suggest not a significant number compared to how many vaccinations we will be getting in 5 weeks time (staff and supply allowing)
Besides, if you've thought about a potential problem arising, you can bet your house that the experts in this field have thought of it too.

I have no doubt it has been thought through fully by Johnson and Hancock guided by their advisors...though...hmmm

I just can’t see how we can avoid a drop in 1st vaccination throughput if we are vaccinating to capacity the day before the first 2nd dozers turn up. The answer I guess is that we don’t 1st vaccinate to capacity.

 

[chrisd]

I have no doubt it has been thought through fully by Johnson and Hancock guided by their advisors...though...hmmm

I just can’t see how we can avoid a drop in 1st vaccination throughput if we are vaccinating to capacity the day before the first 2nd dozers turn up. The answer I guess is that we don’t 1st vaccinate to capacity.

Maybe the drop in 1st vaccination through put will be eliminated by more vaccination sites opening. For me the key is how much vaccine arrives to be able to get it into people's arms

 

[anotherdouble]

So strong rumours coming out this morning that schools will remain shut until after Easter holidays at the earliest and the science lot pushing for May.

From a personal point of view this would be a disaster for our daughter having missed almost half of Year 1 and now a similar amount of Year 2. Couple with her being an August baby there is no way she’ll be ready for the step up to Primary School in August. If this announcement is made we’ve already made the decision to investigate whether we can keep her in Year 2 for another year to try and catch up.

There is no way we can keep the home schooling going until Easter so this term will be a write off.

I said this a couple of days ago. Tier systems have always led to a lockdown, so they don’t work. Economy is broken so another 6-8 weeks won’t matter. Scientists now will want to hold out with lockdown I would think until 55/60 and above vaccinate.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Maybe the drop in 1st vaccination through put will be eliminated by more vaccination sites opening. For me the key is how much vaccine arrives to be able to get it into people's arms

Yup - key to leveraging capacity...

 

[bobmac]

I just can’t see how we can avoid a drop in 1st vaccination throughput if we are vaccinating to capacity the day before the first 2nd dozers turn up. The answer I guess is that we don’t 1st vaccinate to capacity.

Of course there will be a drop, anyone can see that, but from what to what and what would you describe as ''significant''?

 

[AdamW]

The level of stupid here is off the charts:

 

[Tashyboy]

Simply capacity. If we build capacity and 1st vaccinate to that capacity, then as soon as 2nd vaccine tranche starts coming in the volume of 1st vaccinations must drop.

That was always going to be an issue re 2nd vaccinations after 12 weeks. And am sure that was a considered Factor when a decision was made to extend the 2nd dose to 12 weeks. as It stands millions of our most vulnerable will be vaccinated within the 1st 12 weeks. Would that of been the case had we gone 3 weeks, 3 weeks, 3 weeks, 3 weeks.
Interestingly a guy from Israel was interviewed by Andrew Marr this morning. He was asked re the way Israel is sticking to the 3 weeks advice. He mentioned it was not a straight forward decision and a lot of discussion was had before going ahead with the 3 weeks.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I said this a couple of days ago. Tier systems have always led to a lockdown, so they don’t work. Economy is broken so another 6-8 weeks won’t matter. Scientists now will want to hold out with lockdown I would think until 55/60 and above vaccinate.

I will be amazed if they wait until then - truely amazed - that won’t be until May and there is no way they would justify a lockdown until May if cases have reduced and the vunerable will have gained an immunity

The impact of that on many people especially the working population and school kids potentially will be worse than what the virus will affect them -there will be millions affected. We still need to look to the future and that means getting people working , businesses up and kids to school

We do need to protect the vunerable as that is the group that are being hit hard - when it’s around 350 of people under 65 who have died because of the virus ( without known conditions ) then it’s hard to justify keeping them locked up when the country does need to move on .

It’s very hard at the moment and there are a lot of people struggling and a third lockdown of over 10 weeks will be a harder hit for millions than the virus.

Tier systems worked for many areas - when Liverpool etc went into Tier 3 it worked but it’s hard and at times you do think if the first lockdown was harder then we may not be needing this lockdown.

I can see a very big reaction if they say lockdown stays until after Easter and schools closed.

 

[Blue in Munich]

The level of stupid here is off the charts:

Please tell me that he didn't film that himself and publish it to the internet himself? What a complete and utter moron.

 

[Deleted member 25172]

The level of stupid here is off the charts:

Surely there has to be a crime committed here that is outside the fines being handed out?

Reckless endangerment springs to mind.

 

[Imurg]

The level of stupid here is off the charts:

My initial reaction is...fine.
He wants to go home, let him go home.
He'll almost certainly die but that's his choice.
NHS will still get the blame though..
At 75% Sats I'd be surprised if he makes the car park...

 

[anotherdouble]

Please tell me that he didn't film that himself and publish it to the internet himself? What a complete and utter moron.

I think he did. However with the risk of getting some backlash I will say that frightened relatives will go to all lengths to appease their feelings. They obviously thought that what they were doing was right and can any blame them. They were obviously in the camp that this thing does not exist and therefore invincible. Throw in some sunlight for vit d and a few bags of oranges for vitamin c and all will be well in the world. I personally think they were a danger. Most probably got the bus or train home and risked hundreds catching it

 

[Blue in Munich]

I think he did. However with the risk of getting some backlash I will say that frightened relatives will go to all lengths to appease their feelings. They obviously thought that what they were doing was right and can any blame them. They were obviously in the camp that this thing does not exist and therefore invincible. Throw in some sunlight for vit d and a few bags of oranges for vitamin c and all will be well in the world. I personally think they were a danger. Most probably got the bus or train home and risked hundreds catching it

I'll blame them because they are clearly ill-informed, have no idea what is going on and will have put a number of people and the running of the ward at risk because of their pig-headed ignorance.