Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Swinglowandslow said:
If you really read what I've written, I have not advocated martial law.
I have asked the question ( of Riburnside, and others if you like).
Riburnside asked what was the answer to these determined offenders.
I gave an extreme example because he was knocking the Policing as if they should have done better.
I said that Martial law would be an answer, and it would. Whether it was desirable or not is another question .
And I think it is the case that there doesn't seem to be the resources and ability to stop these determined offenders unless something draconian is considered.
You saw the words "martial law" and it seems you consider I think there should be such a situation. I don't.
I think there should be much firmer action, involving arrest, detention, massive fines for all involved, with access to their funds if they refuse to pay, etc.
As you aren't on the kook aid, what is your answer?
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I have no answers, above my paygrade ? these are a new (ish) set of circumstance. To think you’d get 100% adherence to a lockdown in a western democracy with no history of any totalitarian control is a little unrealistic unfortunately. The reports of these events are also disproportionate, they are isolated from what I’ve seen. Compliance seems to be good.
Generally I’m also becoming skeptical of this type of news. It’s being used to reinforce the social control & looks to be more effective than any direct enforcement.
Look at the news we had yesterday. R rate is down .....good, but the new strain kills you better.....Covid 2 die harder!!! (Except that it seems today it doesn’t) , it’s a poor sequel, so the die hard comparisons don’t work. ??
 
[QUOTE
I think there should be much firmer action, involving arrest, detention, massive fines for all involved, with access to their funds if they refuse to pay, etc.

This paragraph is what I ment.
Let me repeat it was not my intention to criticize the police just the policy of not fining more people. I was only asking a valid question.

The police have a hard enough job as it is but even if there was only 2 officers attending could they not have fined more people?
 
Rlburnside said:
[QUOTE
I think there should be much firmer action, involving arrest, detention, massive fines for all involved, with access to their funds if they refuse to pay, etc.

This paragraph is what I ment.
Let me repeat it was not my intention to criticize the police just the policy of not fining more people. I was only asking a valid question.

The police have a hard enough job as it is but even if there was only 2 officers attending could they not have fined more people?
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They've got to catch them..as soon as they've got one it means the rest can run..
 
Kellfire said:
It’s estimated that we need between 60 - 70% from studies I’ve seen to achieve herd immunity. I have faith that there is nowhere near 30 - 40% of the population who either can’t get it for medical reasons or are anti-vaxxers.
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Currently there are no plans to vaccinate children, so you can take out the U-16 population entirely.

Herd immunity is a mathematical construction, and it basically goes like this: given the transmissibility of the virus, what proportion needs to be immune so that each case will spread it to no more than 1 other. So, if R = 3, then you need to vaccinate 2 out every 3, if R = 10, you need to vaccinate 9 out of 10.

It is worth noting that reaching this threshold isn't the end of the story, it is the point at which the pandemic cannot grow, but cases can and will still occur.

The Ro (determined at the start of the pandemic) for Covid has been generally defined as 3, so around 66% would need to be immune for herd immunity. If you have a vaccine with 66% effectiveness, arguably you need everybody vaccinated.

The new strains (SA and Manaus) are said to be more transmissible, meaning R is higher. If it is 30% higher, lets say 4, then the herd immunity threshold goes up to 75%.
 
Beezerk said:
Not sure where you drove mate but the A1 between Metro Centre and Newton Aycliffe was rammed again this morning, just like it has been since the end of the last lockdown. Strangley though the traffic further south around Leeds and Manchester is definitely quieter.
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I take it all back:mad:, due to other commitments (baking:)) I didn’t get out until after lunch today, I’ve never seen the Seafront as busy apart from Carnival Weekend.
Beautiful day, light winds, very cold, but absolutely rammed, path is 20”ft wide in places, but add in walkers, runners, cyclists, prams and dog leads and it was chaotic, witnessed people bumping in to each other while trying to avoid others.

I only got a few hundred yards along the front and decided it was too much and returned home and went inland.

I just hope this attitude of families spending time together exercising outdoors continues once we are through this.
 
Ethan said:
Currently there are no plans to vaccinate children, so you can take out the U-16 population entirely.

Herd immunity is a mathematical construction, and it basically goes like this: given the transmissibility of the virus, what proportion needs to be immune so that each case will spread it to no more than 1 other. So, if R = 3, then you need to vaccinate 2 out every 3, if R = 10, you need to vaccinate 9 out of 10.

It is worth noting that reaching this threshold isn't the end of the story, it is the point at which the pandemic cannot grow, but cases can and will still occur.

The Ro (determined at the start of the pandemic) for Covid has been generally defined as 3, so around 66% would need to be immune for herd immunity. If you have a vaccine with 66% effectiveness, arguably you need everybody vaccinated.

The new strains (SA and Manaus) are said to be more transmissible, meaning R is higher. If it is 30% higher, lets say 4, then the herd immunity threshold goes up to 75%.
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Ethan,

Firstly, many thanks for your continuing incredibly informative posts.

A question I have concerning numbers of those choosing to not get vaccinated for whatever reason. If vaccination rates are high enough to drive the R rate down as you outline here, is there still a bit of mathematics at play that says due to continuing transmission amongst the non-vaccinated, and virus replication, then the probability of a mutation developing that is (even) more transmissable, or, even worse, resistant to the current vaccines.

Is there any science that gives us any indication on where we need to get to to make the chances of this happening similar to say influenza?
 
Lord Tyrion said:
I keep hearing about sections of the population being unwilling to take the vaccine, hopefully not too many. If people want to take that risk then I'm largely ambivalent about it, their problem not mine, ......etc
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But it is your problem. These people will continue to clog up hospitals, which prevents hospitals from using their facilities for other issues. They drive up the R number, and keep the rest of us in lock down. They may also give it to the people who teach, nurse, deliver stuff, serve you in shops etc.
Unfortunately the selfish lot do have a direct impact on the rest of us.
 
memememe said:
Ethan,

Firstly, many thanks for your continuing incredibly informative posts.

A question I have concerning numbers of those choosing to not get vaccinated for whatever reason. If vaccination rates are high enough to drive the R rate down as you outline here, is there still a bit of mathematics at play that says due to continuing transmission amongst the non-vaccinated, and virus replication, then the probability of a mutation developing that is (even) more transmissable, or, even worse, resistant to the current vaccines.

Is there any science that gives us any indication on where we need to get to to make the chances of this happening similar to say influenza?
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I don't think so. You hear stuff on TV that the virus will mutate, almost as if it is trying thinks to outwit us. It really isn't. Mutations occur because it replicates so fast mistakes happen in the gene sequence, but they are essentially random effects. Most of them make no difference, some reduce the virus's ability to attach to receptors in hosts and thus replicate, so those tend to die out, others increase the virus's ability to attach, and are therefore more transmissible, so they tend to dominate because they are faster in the race between the strains. Mutations that kill the host fast also tend to die out because they can't transmit very well. Mutations which evade the immune system are certainly possible, arguably the SA/Manaus strains do some of this, but they have been tested mostly against plasma from recovered patients, and that immunity might be quite narrow. The vaccines may still work against these new mutations.

So there will be dozens, possibly hundreds of mutations coming, and we will have to see what properties they have. The new vaccines can be upgraded very quickly to deal with new strains, so the boosters we will probably get may become more like firmware updates on out phones.
 
Lord Tyrion said:
The intention was that the trust would be between the carrier and customs to an extent where only random checks would be required. They may stop a one man band driver or firms they have suspicions about but they would largely go on trust with the multi nationals or big boys. Currently it's the equivalent of every passenger on a flight having their bag opened and checked upon arrival. That's unsustainable.
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Yes think they are showboating a bit atm .
It should settle down in time.
How long that is is anyone’s guess.
 
So yesterday’s announcement about the new ‘killer’ variant has caused some surprise amongst members of SAGE that it was even announced.

Apparently the number who die with the new strain has gone from 10 in 10,000 to 13 in 10,000. This is a small rise based on very limited data. Be aware of it by all means and carefully monitor it over the course of a week or two but don’t start announcing it to the general public until you have enough data to make a strong conclusion. Surely this is Stats 101?!
 
Throughout all of this Covid, whilst recovering in hospital I am told that contact with the outside world. Contact with the ones you love via telephone, WhatsApp etc is important. Well in Italy it is. Me pal Alfredo has been sent a video whilst recovering in hospital from his family in Abruzzo. It is of a pig they have killed and they have promised to make him some salami. Ave posted a photo of the pig.
Hope it helps Alfredo. ?

(Mod note. picture of 1/2 a slaughtered pig removed on grounds of “WTF”. Wondering if Tash has lost it?)
 
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Tashyboy said:
(Mod note. picture of 1/2 a slaughtered pig removed on grounds of “WTF”. Wondering if Tash has lost it?)
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Is a picture of a whole slaughtered pig considered acceptable?

And presumably a picture a live pig or of a packet of salami wouldn't get modded. So the line is somewhere between the live animal and the end product.
 
Tashyboy said:
Throughout all of this Covid, whilst recovering in hospital I am told that contact with the outside world. Contact with the ones you love via telephone, WhatsApp etc is important. Well in Italy it is. Me pal Alfredo has been sent a video whilst recovering in hospital from his family in Abruzzo. It is of a pig they have killed and they have promised to make him some salami. Ave posted a photo of the pig.
Hope it helps Alfredo. ?

(Mod note. picture of 1/2 a slaughtered pig removed on grounds of “WTF”. Wondering if Tash has lost it?)
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good job I didn’t think post the video. Apologies if it’s upset anyone. ?

PS, don’t go in the butchers ?
 
ColchesterFC said:
Is a picture of a whole slaughtered pig considered acceptable?

And presumably a picture a live pig or of a packet of salami wouldn't get modded. So the line is somewhere between the live animal and the end product.
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‘Twas just a bit gross and would have had the Forum animal rights section up in arms, so just saving myself work

I’m sure Tashy will PM a copy to anyone who requests it ?
 
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