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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

yandabrown said:
For me he loses it when he states "These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). ", we know that the figures are shooting up, in fact doubled since he made the report. If they keep going up at that rate (and no reason to assume that they would not without any interventions) then there would be 40 Million deaths in the next 3 months, compare that to his statement "On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year." Surely we have to be trying to do something to prevent that?
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I take your point about the figures shooting up, but has this not been caused by the decision taken to make Covid 19 a notifiable disease and by recording deaths with Covid 19 rather than deaths from Covid 19 which as he explains are extremely different.
 
Blue in Munich said:
I take your point about the figures shooting up, but has this not been caused by the decision taken to make Covid 19 a notifiable disease and by recording deaths with Covid 19 rather than deaths from Covid 19 which as he explains are extremely different.
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Is that not just in the UK though?
 
yandabrown said:
For me he loses it when he states "These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). ", we know that the figures are shooting up, in fact doubled since he made the report. If they keep going up at that rate (and no reason to assume that they would not without any interventions) then there would be 40 Million deaths in the next 3 months, compare that to his statement "On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year." Surely we have to be trying to do something to prevent that?
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Also when he states

How do we measure the health consequences of taking people’s lives, jobs, leisure and purpose away from them to protect them from an anticipated threat? Which causes least harm? The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?

it reads as if it is a binary choice, relax the restrictions and none of these consequences he goes on to state will happen or keep them and deal with all this later. Where as if the virus is left to spread then there will be significant knock on effects to the NHS, economy and society as whole in addition to just lives lost through the virus. To me the moral debate is lives plus consequences V lives plus consequences.
 
yandabrown said:
For me he loses it when he states "These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). ", we know that the figures are shooting up, in fact doubled since he made the report. If they keep going up at that rate (and no reason to assume that they would not without any interventions) then there would be 40 Million deaths in the next 3 months, compare that to his statement "On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year." Surely we have to be trying to do something to prevent that?
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Just using your post as a vehicle, not agreeing or disagreeing with it. It raises a question,...."those figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with(such as flu)..." if this statement is correct, why are intensive care units throughout northern Italy, Spain etc absolutely long since bust with numbers way beyond their usual winter intake? Is it lower or not? If it is lower, why are tented hospitals in evidence in Italy - (they're not empty)?
 
My company are cutting staff numbers by 75% globally, that’s about 12,000 people gone by Friday. For UK staff they are being furloughed, but for sure that isn’t going to be the case across the board.
 
Blue in Munich said:
If it is, that is part of the problem; if we are to work together across the world to solve it, we need to be working from the same baseline. I found the difference between the Geman and Italian statistics quite compelling.
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The German numbers are still doubling every 4 days, so whilst they might have started on a less steep "slope" they are getting worse. The percentage of all cases can again be different as they seem to do more testing, certainly more than the UK. I agree that it would of course be best that all countries tested and counted in the same way, however to me the underlying trend for all contries has been exponential growth only stopped by many weeks of diligent lock down or through rigid tracing of contacts and lockdown of possible infected people.
 
Just on a different note. I and Mrs D have lockdown as required and we're saying it feels much more like life back in the 70's and 80's when we didn't go out for dinner several times a week/month to pubs or McDonald's, we did all the DIY that we could ourselves, we would paint and decorate in side the house in spring and autumn and the outside in the summer, we'd grow stuff in the garden to eat, didnt have TV on all day, not so many owned cars to go out in, no mobile phones to keep in contact with others continuously, no social media etc etc

It was a much simpler life ? and much like we're experiencing now
 
harpo_72 said:
Alright bit of a moan..
why if the virus can sit on cardboard for 24hrs are we still receiving junk mail.. I mean the postmen are doing a great job, why put them at unnecessary risk and us ?
The irony of isolating yourself for protection and the damn virus comes through your letter box !
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Exactly right. I was commenting to friends etc about this as soon as distancingvstsrted to be talked about. In fact I think I made a post about it, saying if we still had a Postmaster General in the cabinet it would(should )?have been the first thing to be outlawed.
Absolute irresponsible behaviour.
 
hovis said:
i really don't know how to take articles like this. it makes sense and seems reasonable. I also find myself agreeing with his findings. but then I think "why would the government pretty much bankrupt itself for something that is compared to the flue"? are we over reacting? are world governments over reacting?. I'm not sure.
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Surely the point is that with the flu we have a vaccination and many of us are pretty resistant to it without a vaccination as we have been exposed to it for a long time and built up immunity.

With the coronavirus there is no vaccine and we have no immunity. So for instance in the US the figures if nothing was being done in respect of isolation and separation there would be upwards of 100 million contract the disease with potentially 2.2million deaths from it. A bit different from flu.
 
When arguing about graphs and trends it might be worth remembering a TRUE graph must have the vertical axis starting at zero, unless you want to distort the picture!
 
Police chief of Liverpool said on Granada reports that “Its ok to drive a short distance to go for exercise to a quiet spot”
That is really mixed messages.
After Paul’s relative was refused permission to drive to Liverpool, so what is nessesary and what’s not.?
 
Just discussing the testing in our house .. is it worth doing more ? Yes but would you repeat on the same person? Could the test tell that you have had it ?
In the end why is the test so complex and limited ?
By having more results would it undermine the lockdown? Would it be better to say of the confirmed cases we have had x percentage of mortality?

So in the end what would more tests offer ? They might get people out of self isolation but they won’t put people into isolation before they infect someone... I suppose, unless they track groups of possible infections.
 
ITV 2 having a laugh just now showing the 2011 film Contagion , about a world wide epidemic :eek:.
Looks like they knew this Pandemic was coming
 
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