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Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

hovis said:
because they quoted it 20 minutes ago. I wouldn't know how to find it. it was shown at about 5.10 so at 6.10 you'll have it all see
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I assume you mean this graph which shows us on an almost identical trajectory to Italy?
 

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rudebhoy said:
I assume you mean this graph which shows us on an almost identical trajectory to Italy?
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that's not the new one (see my post one back) even that one shows a clear difference. just because the curve is the same doesn't mean the deaths are. the scale is tight on the graph. bbc briefing on +1 is about to start. have a look
oh, and now you've gone to "almost identical "?
 
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hovis said:
that's not the new one (see my post one back) even that one shows a clear difference. just because the curve is the same doesn't mean the deaths are. the scale is tight on the graph. bbc briefing on +1 is about to start. have a look
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That's a screenshot from the broadcast you asked me to watch?

I'm out now, this is getting surreal!
 
hovis said:
the fact that two weeks ago Italy had more deaths than us and the government chart shows a clear deviation from the Italian trend. how much more clear can that be?
id like you to post one link from the government that says we are two weeks behind Italy. you might find one from February saying we "might" be but that hasn't been repeated because we are clearly not two weeks behind them. we are aligned to France according to the governments stats
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Over on the "maths" thread we've chatted about being 16 days behind Italy for a bit.
 
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SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Leukemia is indeed a high risk cancer and so yes the letter and advice to isolate absolutely applies.

My wife is 3 yrs into the 'maintenance' phase post chemo/radio/operation for BC, and the guidance from the Breast Cancer experts (and she works with them) is that those at high risk are either in chemo - or in the first 3 months post-chemo. What my wife's team is finding (from calls to the helpline from women such as her) is that the NHS has quite sensibly taken a very broad-brush approach to catch as many women as possible - so some women who are 7-8yrs+ post chemo have got the letter.

The guidance being provided by BCN on an individual basis is that many women who got the letter have a risk not much higher - if higher at all - than the population risk. The guidance in the letter is that women such as my wife should just check their individual risk with their specialist nurse; with their oncologist, or if way past end of treatment with such as Breast Cancer Now.

My point is that if my wife panics (as she did) on receipt of the letter, even knowing what she knows, then many who will have received the letter will also panic - and that is absolutely understandable. But many getting the letter should be reassured to know of the approach the NHS has taken - and just check with their specialist support.
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SwingsitlikeHogan said:
I am afraid that in the briefing yesterday Gove came across yesterday in his usual oleaginous and condescending lecturing way...

I am struggling to keep the faith. The mouthpieces that Johnson is putting out front are doing nothing for the credibility of the message and the approach.
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Perhaps you could struggle in silence. ?
Do you really think this government and its ministers are not trying their best. They may not be succeeding on all fronts, but it is easy to throw accusations about on a political basis.
I believe someone has said Gove was lying about the chemical reagents.
Really? Do you think he'd do that, on this subject? Knowing how easy it is/has been to hear from the manufacturers?
Imagine you ask the army of civil servants for facts to give the Press, and you are given wrong info/figures etc ( as is the way of it). Does that make you a liar?
Come on, this is a national crisis- keep the political accusations out of it.
 
IainP said:
Over on the "maths" thread we've chatted about being 16 days behind Italy for a bit.
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To flesh that out
Italy 12 March 1015 UK 28 March 1019
Italy 13 March 1266 UK 29 March 1228
Italy 15 March 1809 UK 31 March 1789
Italy 16 March 2158 UK 01 April 2352
Italy 17 March 2503
Italy 18 March 2979

A big number in UK again would move it back closer to 14 days as it was earlier on.
 
Swinglowandslow said:
Perhaps you could struggle in silence. ?
Do you really think this government and its ministers are not trying their best. They may not be succeeding on all fronts, but it is easy to throw accusations about on a political basis.
I believe someone has said Gove was lying about the chemical reagents.
Really? Do you think he'd do that, on this subject? Knowing how easy it is/has been to hear from the manufacturers?
Imagine you ask the army of civil servants for facts to give the Press, and you are given wrong info/figures etc ( as is the way of it). Does that make you a liar?
Come on, this is a national crisis- keep the political accusations out of it.
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Unfortunately, for some people, that's just not possible, no matter how hard they pretend to try.
 
my computer skills are quite limited. can anyone explain what was meant when they said figures have jumped alot this week because we have included deaths outside hospital. then I saw earlier that today's figures are inside hospital. does this mean we'll only get one set of figures from now on?
 
Wife just got a letter from Scottish Executive, telling her to self isolate for 12 weeks due to her being high risk.
Even in the house she is to keep isolated from the rest of us as best possible, not to sleep with anybody not even me?
My son and daughter have not been out for 10 days apart from a walk, myself I've been doing the shopping and chemist runs.
Now decided to food shop online and get my sister to drop of bread and milk every 5 days or so.
As long as none of us have been outside for the next couple of weeks we can relax the social isolation a bit within the house.
However even if they relaxed the restrictions in a month or so any golf for me will be with the dawn chorus until we're back to normality.

Listen guys things are miserable enough without coming on here and bickering about graphs and how many are going to die, one member just lost his brother so give it a rest.

Tough times ahead and it will hit some families more than others, so everyone needs to do their bit to get through this as best we can.
 
For those guys looking at graphs and numbers, the European CDC did a modelling exercise in 2016 basing it on a pandemic similar to Spanish flu, i.e. the R=1.7 infection rate. I won't go into the detail as there's reams and reams of it. The US did something very similar the following year, as had the WHO 2 years previously. All 3 models pretty much came to the same conclusions.

Go knock yourselves out, but prepare yourself to be reading for hours. Remember, what you've been saying about the graphs you're arguing over is information that's very crude for making predictions from. They give historical numbers and don't take into account any changes the govts impose mid-flow.
 
The figures the Govt are releasing are based on admissons to hospitals. I’d guess whatever the figures they release are, you can add at least another 10% on and you’d still be nowhere near the actual death rate.
 
williamalex1 said:
I think the government made a big mistake when this all kicked off, by stating that younger people will probably only get a minor flu type illness.
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Has the maths changed on this?
Stuart_C said:
The figures the Govt are releasing are based on admissons to hospitals. I’d guess whatever the figures they release are, you can add at least another 10% on and you’d still be nowhere near the actual death rate.
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The figures are also deaths WITH Corona, not BY, so given that most of them are already ill or very old, you could revise it down a bit...
 
pendodave said:
Has the maths changed on this?

The figures are also deaths WITH Corona, not BY, so given that most of them are already ill or very old, you could revise it down a bit...
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some Dr on the news this morning said that if you take the numbers that actually die of corona vs the life's saved from the usual 8000 that die of flue but many won't because of the measures. it will offset it that makes sense.
no idea where he got his figures but interesting
 
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