Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[SocketRocket]

I haven't got a medical background but I assume that the herd immunity figure takes that into account. For example, R=4 but 75% of the population have immunity, probably from having the vaccine. Therefore out of the 4 people that the person would have passed the virus on to 3 of them (75% = 3 out of 4) have had the vaccine and it's only one left for them to pass it on to, so in this case R is reduced from 4 to 1. This obviously assumes that the vaccine is 100% effective in preventing transmission, which with Covid and current vaccines, it doesn't. Therefore for a virus where R=4, a herd immunity threshold of over 75% would be required for a vaccine that is less than 100% effective.

But I'm sure @Ethan will correct that if I've missed or misunderstood anything.

Yes, that's clarified it.

 

[Ethan]

I haven't got a medical background but I assume that the herd immunity figure takes that into account. For example, R=4 but 75% of the population have immunity, probably from having the vaccine. Therefore out of the 4 people that the person would have passed the virus on to 3 of them (75% = 3 out of 4) have had the vaccine and it's only one left for them to pass it on to, so in this case R is reduced from 4 to 1. This obviously assumes that the vaccine is 100% effective in preventing transmission, which with Covid and current vaccines, it doesn't. Therefore for a virus where R=4, a herd immunity threshold of over 75% would be required for a vaccine that is less than 100% effective.

But I'm sure @Ethan will correct that if I've missed or misunderstood anything.

You are spot on. It is a mathematical construct such that, as you say if something passes on to 4 others on average, and you vaccinate 3/4 of people, iyt can only pass on to 1 on average and the pandemic won't propagate. The 1 in 4 can still catch it and die.

 

[clubchamp98]

My daughters school year has shut because two teachers and a child tested positive.
Got her stuck in the house now for 10 days and I have lost my upstairs bathroom .

 

[SocketRocket]

You are spot on. It is a mathematical construct such that, as you say if something passes on to 4 others on average, and you vaccinate 3/4 of people, iyt can only pass on to 1 on average and the pandemic won't propagate. The 1 in 4 can still catch it and die.

Although if it doesn't pass on to four others surely it can't have a value of 4.

 

[SaintHacker]

Just had a call from vacc centre, 2nd jab brought forward from july 5th to tomorrow!

 

[Ethan]

Although if it doesn't pass on to four others surely it can't have a value of 4.

Well, the virus can have the propensity to transmit to 4, but can't practically do so because some of the 4 are immune. It is still a useful measure of how easy it would be for that particular variant to spread if given the chance. It is not a great way to measure the resistance to infection (vaccinated and/or immune) in the population.

 

[Billysboots]

My daughters school year has shut because two teachers and a child tested positive.
Got her stuck in the house now for 10 days and I have lost my upstairs bathroom .

That’s such a lazy way of dealing with it. Have they even attempted contact tracing?

Given the fact this pandemic has now been with us for nearly 18 months you really would like to think that all educational establishments are far more savvy and organised than simply sending entire years home to isolate, although I do accept it depends on the size of the school. It seems that some still lag behind.

My lad’s college did the same back in March. Sent his whole year home for ten days, told them to self isolate, all because of a single positive test. We had to badger the college to tell us which student had returned the positive test and eventually found out via other means that it was someone on another course in another part of the college. My lad and his course mates have never had, and never will have, contact with the student, the area of the college he attends, or the lecturers he comes into contact with. Suffice to say the college’s insistence that everyone in the year self isolated “in line with government guidance” was cobblers - the guidance says nothing of the sort. I’ve read it.

I absolutely agree that a huge number of schools and colleges have this fine tuned now, so this isn’t a general observation aimed at all. But it’s long overdue that some got a grip and dealt with this proportionately.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Well, the virus can have the propensity to transmit to 4, but can't practically do so because some of the 4 are immune. It is still a useful measure of how easy it would be for that particular variant to spread if given the chance. It is not a great way to measure the resistance to infection (vaccinated and/or immune) in the population.

Sorry this is a basic question triggered by the above...what is it about the vaccination that protects the vaccinated from picking up the virus. I thought the vaccination protects the infected from developing covid-19 and reduces onward transmission by the vaccinated but infected individual?

 

[larmen]

Has Italy found the key to vaccinate the younger generation?

I would probably go elsewhere, maybe vaccination bingo instead.

 

[clubchamp98]

That’s such a lazy way of dealing with it. Have they even attempted contact tracing?

Given the fact this pandemic has now been with us for nearly 18 months you really would like to think that all educational establishments are far more savvy and organised than simply sending entire years home to isolate, although I do accept it depends on the size of the school. It seems that some still lag behind.

My lad’s college did the same back in March. Sent his whole year home for ten days, told them to self isolate, all because of a single positive test. We had to badger the college to tell us which student had returned the positive test and eventually found out via other means that it was someone on another course in another part of the college. My lad and his course mates have never had, and never will have, contact with the student, the area of the college he attends, or the lecturers he comes into contact with. Suffice to say the college’s insistence that everyone in the year self isolated “in line with government guidance” was cobblers - the guidance says nothing of the sort. I’ve read it.

I absolutely agree that a huge number of schools and colleges have this fine tuned now, so this isn’t a general observation aimed at all. But it’s long overdue that some got a grip and dealt with this proportionately.

Yes but these are only 5 yr olds who go around licking each other and worse things.
It must be tough for youngsters who have exams coming up.

 

[Billysboots]

Yes but these are only 5 yr olds who go around licking each other and worse things.
It must be tough for youngsters who have exams coming up.

In which case I totally get it. Apart from the licking. There’s a time and a place for licking.

 

[clubchamp98]

Yes but these are only 5 yr olds who go around licking each other and worse things.
It must be tough for youngsters who have exams coming up.

Not when your 5 it’s always time

 

[larmen]

Yes but these are only 5 yr olds who go around licking each other and worse things.
It must be tough for youngsters who have exams coming up.

We got an email today that a child in our sons reception class got tested and that in line with policy we are told. Happened a few times before, followed by an email the test was negative. No idea what happens if a test comes back positive.

 

[Backache]

Although if it doesn't pass on to four others surely it can't have a value of 4.

It all depends on what R value you are referring too. The R0 value is the number of people on average a single infected person transmits too in a fully susceptible population and is what theoretical estimates of herd immunity are based on The R0 is usually estimated at the beginning of an outbreak as later immunity will have developed in the population. When people talk about the current R value they are talking about what the estimated transmission rate is at the current time which is sometimes referred to as Rt. This will depend on what proportion of the population have full or partial immunity and any extra measure such as distancing and mask wearing are having.

 

[Ethan]

Sorry this is a basic question triggered by the above...what is it about the vaccination that protects the vaccinated from picking up the virus. I thought the vaccination protects the infected from developing covid-19 and reduces onward transmission by the vaccinated but infected individual?

Viruses are basically little genetic factories that do nothing but make more virus. When you get infected, the virus takes over some cells, for example lung tissue with Covid, and use them to replicate. Your body may react against this and that causes some of the symptoms. Other symptoms are caused by the cels not doing what they were supposed to do before they were taken over. The virus that results spills out and can be released in breath, for example, and transmits as a result. If you vaccinate people, the virus will be very much less likely to replicate in those people, so they won't get Covid themselves, but they also won't be shedding much virus in their breath to transmit to others.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Viruses are basically little genetic factories that do nothing but make more virus. When you get infected, the virus takes over some cells, for example lung tissue with Covid, and use them to replicate. Your body may react against this and that causes some of the symptoms. Other symptoms are caused by the cels not doing what they were supposed to do before they were taken over. The virus that results spills out and can be released in breath, for example, and transmits as a result. If you vaccinate people, the virus will be very much less likely to replicate in those people, so they won't get Covid themselves, but they also won't be shedding much virus in their breath to transmit to others.

Thanks for that very clear explanation - Id got the basics of that...but your explanation doesn't mention the impact of my having the vaccination on reducing the risk of my picking up the virus.

 

[Ethan]

Thanks for that very clear explanation - Id got the basics of that...but your explanation doesn't mention the impact of my having the vaccination on reducing the risk of my picking up the virus.

You can pick it up, the vax doesn't create a forcefield, but it is very likely (90%-ish) that your immune system will take care of the little blighter so that it won't replicate in you and therefore will neither affect you not will you create more to spread around.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Thanks for that very clear explanation - Id got the basics of that...but your explanation doesn't mention the impact of my having the vaccination on reducing the risk of my picking up the virus.

Aha- not indulging in semantics here, H , but you have changed the sentence? Now you have introduced 'my' vaccination and 'my 'picking up...
Ethan is talking about the effects of vaccination...which was the question.
The risk of picking up the virus is lessened because the more people who are vaccinated means less incidence of contacting it from someone who is positive and unvaccinated .( cos there's less of them, obviously) Those are the ones who may shed it to you in quantities where your body has a bigger fight on its hands....
On an individual level, however,
the vaccine was never a 'force field' which could stop that virus getting to you, if you encountered it.But it causes your body to more quickly reject the virus and fight the virus more quickly and effectively, almost certainly completely effectively ! and you will probably have hardly any symptoms, because you are vaccinated. IOW, you already have an army of antibodies in you to fight the virus which is trying to take hold. .

 

[SaintHacker]

Thanks for that very clear explanation - Id got the basics of that...but your explanation doesn't mention the impact of my having the vaccination on reducing the risk of my picking up the virus.

There was a programme on BBC a few nights ago about the vacc program, that explained very well in laymans terms how all the different vaccines work. Its probably available on catch up

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Thanks all. I did understand all of it, but was thrown a little by suggestion - my poor reading of what was posted - that the vaccination would somehow prevent me from picking up the virus. It doesn't directly - but does indirectly by the fact of most others being vaccinated and hence I would be unlucky if I was in contact with someone who was infectious and who passed it to me. ?