Old Skier
Tour Winner
Still very keen to get their allocation of the vaccine though.
Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?
- Thread starter drdel
- Start date
Still very keen to get their allocation of the vaccine though.
Ethan
Money List Winner
Sure, why wouldn't they? They have bought and paid for a load of it, and now are trying to determine the best use. If they have concluded that it should be given to younger patients at lower risk of complications and death, that would be a very rational decision.
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
This is the bit that I don't get. My understanding is that there is some evidence (from a ?mistake? during the trials) that giving half a dose followed 3 weeks later by a full dose has been shown to produce better results but there isn't enough data to positively confirm this. However they've decided to go with a 12 week interval between full doses even though there is no evidence to support this. Why or how do they ignore the first with some evidence but accept the second with no evidence?
Is there an explanation to this Ethan?
bobmac
Major Champion
How do you know there is no evidence
ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Because as I understand it no trials have been done with giving the two jabs 12 weeks apart. The trials were done with a 3 week interval and a mistake led to the suggestion that the half dose/full dose regime gave better results. I've seen nothing that suggests that there were any trials with a 12 week interval. And in the absence of data showing that the 12 week interval works then there is no evidence.
I'm not saying that I disagree with the current plan but I'm confused as to why it was accepted but the half dose/full dose was rejected due to lack of evidence. As I saw it put on social media, if I'm driving my car at night I would rather every other car had one headlight rather than half of them having two and half of them having none. Giving as many people as possible the protection of the first injection seems a sensible route to take. My question was simply how could they do that without evidence that a 12 week gap would be ok but reject the other option even though there is some data to support it. Maybe it's as simple as giving the full dose in the first injection gives more protection than giving half a dose first but I just don't know.
Ethan
Money List Winner
It appears that the vaccine was produced, tested for potency and released. Later tests after it had been dispensed to patients revealed that the original analysis was wrong and over-rated the potency, which was actually closer to half the potency. This occurred in a group intended to receive only one dose, but when that dose was realised to be a low dose, they decided that wouldn't do so amended the protocol to add in a second standard dose. So the study was re-engineered as a study of low dose first shot, standard dose second shot. As it happens, there was a theory going around anyway that this sort of dosing regimen may be a good idea, because the body mounts an immune response to the vector used to transport the vaccine, and the thinking was that a lower dose would stimulate a smaller immune reaction against the vector, so that when the booster was given, it wasn't partially blocked by the immune response the first one induced. For similar reasons, the Russian Sputnik uses two different vectors which don't cross-react. so this inadvertent low dose-standard dose arm in the study showed a very strong response, 90% reduction, compared to the 60% reception for the standard dose-standard dose arms. this low dose arm was in a decent number of patients, and the statistical question was whether it was likely that this was a random chance finding and the true answer was that the standard dose arm was better. I think that was highly unlikely, and there really was no scientific bar to proving the low dose- standard dose arm.
Turns out that a low dose-standard dose regimen might now be a good thing as we are a bit short of vaccine, and supplies would go further on the low dose regimen.
One other effect of this dosing error/chance happening was that the study protocol amendment extended the interval before a second dose could be given, so data on a dosing interval of up to 12 weeks is available. This is not in a massive number of patients, though, and although the shorter interval shows a better effect than the longer interval, it isn't by much and certainly less than the difference between the low dose and standard dose regimens.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that a pragmatic fix was needed and the longer interval served that intention well enough for them to take a punt and make the scientific interpretation fit the practical need. It also seems that the FDA and EMA have been less persuaded by the messy data set presented to them and have spent longer trying to disentangle it, and might come to different conclusions.
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BTatHome
Tour Winner
Good news that less die ... unfortunately they still contract the virus and still close classes/schools because of it.
I'm assuming some group is using this to strengthen the fact they don't consider education important enough to be vaccinated earlier ... which is a shame considering the way the virus has run through my school in recent times.
bobmac
Major Champion
I totally agree as we've only had the vaccine for 7 weeks.
But there is research that shows those who have delayed their second dose have in in fact shown an increase in the affect of the vaccine.
Start watching at 8:46 and note 10:00 onwards
As far as I'm aware, there is no evidence to show that there is a drop of efficacy after 3 weeks after the first dose. However, I could be wrong.
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ColchesterFC
Journeyman Pro
Cheers Bob, good to see that there might be benefits to the current strategy. Fingers crossed.
Ethan
Money List Winner
There is no evidence, nor any plausible theory, that efficacy will drop after 3 weeks, or 3 months either. Natural infection is a one dose event. The different vaccines don't have differing ways of conferring immunity. They start slightly differently but all converge after 48 hours.
There is some evidence that a delayed second dose of AZ gives a better response, but not a massively better one.
bobmac
Major Champion
So extending the gap between the first and second doses beyond 3 weeks could be beneficial as far as the current data suggests?
drdel
Tour Rookie
Yup. AZ Yes! Pfizer less increase in efficacy detected.
Ethan
Money List Winner
I would say AZ yes, a bit increased.
Pfizer generates a more powerful response so less headroom for additional improvement through longer intervals but no reason to think the immunity generated follows a different pattern.
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road2ruin
Q-School Graduate
A couple of things that have affected my family in the last month which consequences of Covid rather than actually catching it ourselves.
Firstly, our daughter is in Year 2 although her birthday is in the last couple of days of August so she is the youngest in the year, this has meant that whilst she loves school she has always been playing catch up in an educational front. She missed out on her final term and a half in Year 1 and is now out of school again whilst we endure the present school closures. These closures have had a huge impact on her learning and with her meant to start Junior School in September we have made the decision for her to drop back down to Year 1 when the schools open (whenever that might be) and then she'll repeat Year 2 in September. This isn't something that I would ever have considered previously however we are in the slightly unusual position in that we moved house late last year so she was meant to start her new school in January. This didn't happen so she's not made any friends and has only seen her class briefly in Zoom calls. This has meant that we don't have the worries about her being separated from friends and dealing with being put down a year whilst all of her friends move onwards. It was a good opportunity for us to allow her to catch up and make up most of the time that has been lost over the last 12 months.
At the other end of the spectrum we have my grandfather who is 101 years old. Up until June of last year he was one of the 'youngest' 101 year olds that you'll ever meet, he lived in his own home, no real assistance bar my mum checking up on him every day. He was very much a creature of habit, went to get his paper, had a Guinness etc. Due to age he was told to shield and so this disrupted his daily routine, he didn't like this and much to my mum's annoyance he continued a normal life as he didn't want to spend his final months cooped up. After a couple of falls the decision was made that he'd now be better off in a care home and he was moved there in October. It's a nice place, well run so no complaints however it wasn't his home and it threw out his routine. Unfortunately over the last couple of months, due to hospital visits and a Covid outbreak in his home he has spent 6 weeks almost entirely in his room. It's not a large room and he's obviously not allowed to have visitors so he's had almost no movement and as a result he cannot walk and is now wheelchair bound. His mental health has dropped off a cliff and he is now back in the war, we've stopped having phone calls as he doesn't know who we are any more and only sporadically recognises my mum. It's really sad to watch his decline having been to fit and health both mentally and physically for 100 odd years!!
Firstly, our daughter is in Year 2 although her birthday is in the last couple of days of August so she is the youngest in the year, this has meant that whilst she loves school she has always been playing catch up in an educational front. She missed out on her final term and a half in Year 1 and is now out of school again whilst we endure the present school closures. These closures have had a huge impact on her learning and with her meant to start Junior School in September we have made the decision for her to drop back down to Year 1 when the schools open (whenever that might be) and then she'll repeat Year 2 in September. This isn't something that I would ever have considered previously however we are in the slightly unusual position in that we moved house late last year so she was meant to start her new school in January. This didn't happen so she's not made any friends and has only seen her class briefly in Zoom calls. This has meant that we don't have the worries about her being separated from friends and dealing with being put down a year whilst all of her friends move onwards. It was a good opportunity for us to allow her to catch up and make up most of the time that has been lost over the last 12 months.
At the other end of the spectrum we have my grandfather who is 101 years old. Up until June of last year he was one of the 'youngest' 101 year olds that you'll ever meet, he lived in his own home, no real assistance bar my mum checking up on him every day. He was very much a creature of habit, went to get his paper, had a Guinness etc. Due to age he was told to shield and so this disrupted his daily routine, he didn't like this and much to my mum's annoyance he continued a normal life as he didn't want to spend his final months cooped up. After a couple of falls the decision was made that he'd now be better off in a care home and he was moved there in October. It's a nice place, well run so no complaints however it wasn't his home and it threw out his routine. Unfortunately over the last couple of months, due to hospital visits and a Covid outbreak in his home he has spent 6 weeks almost entirely in his room. It's not a large room and he's obviously not allowed to have visitors so he's had almost no movement and as a result he cannot walk and is now wheelchair bound. His mental health has dropped off a cliff and he is now back in the war, we've stopped having phone calls as he doesn't know who we are any more and only sporadically recognises my mum. It's really sad to watch his decline having been to fit and health both mentally and physically for 100 odd years!!
D
Deleted member 18645
Guest
The school thing is becoming a media target. Without wanting to get political, every parent wants the schools to re-open and probably so does the Government. Will then open after half-term etc etc. So if they announce it will happen, people make plans and then the virus situation changes. They have to postpone that decision and then everyone screams about u-turns and affecting children's futures. What the hell do you do?
D
Deleted member 25172
Guest
I really hope that what is happening in Netherlands now won't spread to the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55799919
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55799919
D
Deleted member 15344
Guest
It has potential to go that way if the lockdown extends for a significant period - it’s a scary thought but can certainly see some protests in lockdown continues into March without some level of easing
road2ruin
Q-School Graduate
If it's announced that schools are not to open until after Easter then you're going to have roving groups of home schooling parents front and centre in any uprising!
Dannyc
Active member
Unfortunately there are many very sad cases like this
I wish him all the best
D
Deleted member 25172
Guest
Yeah, I can see that happening too. Although, I don't think it'll be actual "protests", but people seeing it as an opportunity to cause mayhem for the fun of it as they're idiots.
If it's announced that schools are not to open until after Easter then you're going to have roving groups of home schooling parents front and centre in any uprising!
