Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[GB72]

Sure, and I was trying to add to the discussion rather than rebut. It is an important issue. The idea of behavioural fatigue was one which influenced Govt to delay lockdown, even though there was no evidence that it would occur here, or had occurred anywhere else in a way that undermined response to the virus. I suspect it was cover for Johnson not wanting to do something perceived by his libertarian wing as unpopular. And as it turns out, people have responded pretty well with lockdown overall. With clearer messaging I think we should have seen it even better.

Have to agree, I was surprised at the response and thought there would be far more deviation.

 

[Ethan]

A woman at golf swears her son has had it twice. Certainly a 2nd positive test but not sure the first bout of illness was tested as it was early on.

Possible or coincidence do you think @Ethan

There were reports of people in China testing positive then later getting symptoms and testing positive again. Later reanalysis showed that the earlier tests were wrong and should have been negative.

It is impossible to say that something can't ever happen, there are all sorts of variations in people, and some have weird immune systems, but the general view now is that people do not get reinfected. They can have a prolonged single course, but more likely one of the two episodes wasn't Covid.

 

[Billysboots]

Mrs. BiM is due to have an operation. Hospital just phoned about it, oh, and your bloods are back; you might like to know that you've got Coronavirus antibodies...

Never been sick, never noticed that she had anything beyond a mild seasonal bug. How far has this spread already?

I said precisely the same when my antibody test came back positive. I had merely felt slightly out of sorts, and certainly not ill, during the few days I think I had it. I think I may already have said, 40% of our office have tested positive for antibodies and only one colleague had felt genuinely unwell - he suspected seasonal flu.

To date 300k positive tests in the U.K. That number is meaningless because it doesn’t come close to the true number of infections.

 

[AmandaJR]

There were reports of people in China testing positive then later getting symptoms and testing positive again. Later reanalysis showed that the earlier tests were wrong and should have been negative.

It is impossible to say that something can't ever happen, there are all sorts of variations in people, and some have weird immune systems, but the general view now is that people do not get reinfected. They can have a prolonged single course, but more likely one of the two episodes wasn't Covid.

Thanks. Kind of what I thought as many people had an awful bug early in 2020 and have since convinced themselves it was Covid.

 

[Hobbit]

2 night clubs down on the Playa closed by the authorities last Thursday as a number of customers found to have the virus had been there. 24 staff at one of them since confirmed as having it. Local numbers, after good numbers during lockdown are rising significantly. Announcements on FB from each of the local town halls are being posted at least once a day showing new outbreaks.

The holiday season started, and a lot of northern Spaniards arrived. Many of the apartment block car parks are now full. And from having numbers in the teens locally, some villages and towns having none, we're now seeing a worrying rise.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Thanks. Kind of what I thought as many people had an awful bug early in 2020 and have since convinced themselves it was Covid.

Hardly surprising that, when people who have had no symptoms like Mrs. BiM test positive, people who have had symptoms believe they have had it. Hardly an unreasonable assumption on their part.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

2 night clubs down on the Playa closed by the authorities last Thursday as a number of customers found to have the virus had been there. 24 staff at one of them since confirmed as having it. Local numbers, after good numbers during lockdown are rising significantly. Announcements on FB from each of the local town halls are being posted at least once a day showing new outbreaks.

The holiday season started, and a lot of northern Spaniards arrived. Many of the apartment block car parks are now full. And from having numbers in the teens locally, some villages and towns having none, we're now seeing a worrying rise.

This sounds like a repeat of what happened at the beginning. I'm surprised the govt haven't stopped the summer exodus to the coasts from the north. Draconian but surely better than the alternative.

 

[Hoganman1]

Up until a month ago, I didn't know anyone who had the virus. Now, I know four people who have had it and recovered and sadly, one who has died.

 

[Ethan]

Hardly surprising that, when people who have had no symptoms like Mrs. BiM test positive, people who have had symptoms believe they have had it. Hardly an unreasonable assumption on their part.

Not unreasonable at all. Cough and tempe

Hardly surprising that, when people who have had no symptoms like Mrs. BiM test positive, people who have had symptoms believe they have had it. Hardly an unreasonable assumption on their part.

I know a few NHS staff who have had it, but also a few who were convinced they had it but later tested antibody negative

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Not unreasonable at all. Cough and tempe


I know a few NHS staff who have had it, but also a few who were convinced they had it but later tested antibody negative

We've had a few of those. A lot went sick late 2019 and soon after Christmas with viral symptoms (before Covid really hit the news and we knew what the symptoms were) and so assumed they had already had it. Had the test and came back negative

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

We are told by our leading scientists and medical experts that we are at the limit of what can be safely 'opened-up' given the current level of infection and the current efficiency of our Test and Trace. What then do we shut down to allow schools to open if/as they must reopen. Pubs? Shops? Or do we tell the scientists and medical experts 'thankyou for your advice, we recognise your concerns, however we are going to re-open the schools but are not going to (re)close anything else' to 'compensate'.

 

[Ethan]

We are told by our leading scientists and medical experts that we are at the limit of what can be safely 'opened-up' given the current level of infection and the current efficiency of our Test and Trace. What then do we shut down to allow schools to open if/as they must reopen. Pubs? Shops? Or do we tell the scientists and medical experts 'thankyou for your advice, we recognise your concerns, however we are going to re-open the schools but are not going to (re)close anything else' to 'compensate'.

There is a false dichotomy between getting medical control of the virus and maintaining the economy. The economy will not recover properly until this virus is properly controlled. That lesson was learned in the Spanish flu pandemic. US cities which locked down hard and fast recovered sooner and better than those that prevaricated. The US is seeing some of that repeating itself now in Texas and Arizona. Our current Test and Trace is pitifully inadequate, it won't control anything other than Serco's bottom line. The problem with further opening up is that incremental opening up can lead to exponential growth in disease. There is too large a reservoir of virus in the community at present. It isn't coming from returning holidaymakers, it has been circulating for months.

In my opinion, opening schools is safer than pubs and restaurants. Much as I would love to go back to football matches, public crowds like that could be disastrous.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

There is a false dichotomy between getting medical control of the virus and maintaining the economy. The economy will not recover properly until this virus is properly controlled. That lesson was learned in the Spanish flu pandemic. US cities which locked down hard and fast recovered sooner and better than those that prevaricated. The US is seeing some of that repeating itself now in Texas and Arizona. Our current Test and Trace is pitifully inadequate, it won't control anything other than Serco's bottom line. The problem with further opening up is that incremental opening up can lead to exponential growth in disease. There is too large a reservoir of virus in the community at present. It isn't coming from returning holidaymakers, it has been circulating for months.

In my opinion, opening schools is safer than pubs and restaurants. Much as I would love to go back to football matches, public crowds like that could be disastrous.

The Test and Trace capacity must be in place. So something can't be working correctly.

As a concerned critic of how well it is doing observed - given there are three levels in the T&T system - when you multiple three percentages each of about 80% you get 50%. And I understand that that 50% has to get to about 68% for the T&T system to be deemed effective. And for that you require nearly 90% successful tracing at each level.

So schools or pubs/restaurants - or schools and pubs/restaurants. The choice for me is easy - but will be less so for others.

 

[SocketRocket]

We are told by our leading scientists and medical experts that we are at the limit of what can be safely 'opened-up' given the current level of infection and the current efficiency of our Test and Trace. What then do we shut down to allow schools to open if/as they must reopen. Pubs? Shops? Or do we tell the scientists and medical experts 'thankyou for your advice, we recognise your concerns, however we are going to re-open the schools but are not going to (re)close anything else' to 'compensate'.

Are they not including the opening of schools as part of the limit.

 

[Bunkermagnet]

I don’t understand why this new 90 min test (that is supposed to be lots more accurate than other tests) isnt rolled out so the whole population has a mandatory test during a 1 week period. Everything is too peace meal and reactive rather than proactive and all encompassing

 

[Ethan]

The Test and Trace capacity must be in place. So something can't be working correctly.

As a concerned critic of how well it is doing observed - given there are three levels in the T&T system - when you multiple three percentages each of about 80% you get 50%. And I understand that that 50% has to get to about 68% for the T&T system to be deemed effective. And for that you require nearly 90% successful tracing at each level.

So schools or pubs/restaurants - or schools and pubs/restaurants. The choice for me is easy - but will be less so for others.

Testing and tracing is basic old school public health. It could work and should work. It has done so in other countries. The first huge mistake was when Govt stopped it on March 12th citing capacity problems. This was a disastrously bad decision, at the very time it was needed most. What they should have done, and what was suggested at the time was to scale up PHE local tracing and draft in other health brokers with transferable skills, e.g. district nursing staff, public health doctors etc. Instead when it restarted it was given to Serco and Dido. The very first week results were announced, they boasted that of 8100 cases referred, over 4500 agreed to provide contacts. But that week, 23000 positive cases were identified, so the actual hit rate was no better than 20%. And the failure to test contacts is a huge problem.

The idea of test and trace is that you identify cases, test their contacts (as suspected cases) to find more positive cases, identify their contacts and so on until the next layer has no positive tests, i.e. the transmission trial runs cold. This is critical for a disease with asymptomatic transmission. Failing to test contacts is ignoring asuympmatic transmission, which we know is important. And the ay testing is set up makes this easy. By the time a case identifies, gets a test and gets a result, several days will have passed. By the time they reach the contact, it is perfect timing to do a test, around day 6 or 7. The whole thing could work so much better. The app is a sideshow more about funnelling money to key political contacts. It isn't needed.

Oh, and the same week that Dido reported 4500 people reached, she failed to mention that the great majority of those had been reached by PHE, not her T&T service. I am not sure there is a key threshold for effectiveness, it is proportional. Complete coverage is not necessary, although would be great, but it needs to do a lot better than currently, and there is no chance that will happen without a major overhaul. The Govt, naturally, has lobbed another big contract, this time to McKinsey, to do that review. That is another waste of money.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

I don’t understand why this new 90 min test (that is supposed to be lots more accurate than other tests) isnt rolled out so the whole population has a mandatory test during a 1 week period. Everything is too peace meal and reactive rather than proactive and all encompassing

I think it would be fascinating to do this. It probably needs to be done regionally, work north to south, south to north, county by county. Get a real idea of what is going on, where we stand. Relying on people showing symptons before being tested as the guide for the virus is a bit half a job imo

 

[Ethan]

I think it would be fascinating to do this. It probably needs to be done regionally, work north to south, south to north, county by county. Get a real idea of what is going on, where we stand. Relying on people showing symptons before being tested as the guide for the virus is a bit half a job imo

Testing only symptomatic is disastrous and certain to miss a lot of important transmission. There are some issues around the number of false negatives and positives with mass testing, so targeted testing is probably wiser for now.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

Testing only symptomatic is disastrous and certain to miss a lot of important transmission. There are some issues around the number of false negatives and positives with mass testing, so targeted testing is probably wiser for now.

I understand it is probably more practical and cost effective but haven't they found in areas where they have tested everyone, whole hospitals, closed off Italian hilltop towns etc that around 40% of positive tests are on people who have shown no symptoms? At the moment we are missing those in the general population of the UK as we do not mass test. Those people are free to wander and, unknowingly, potentially spread the virus.

 

[Ethan]

I understand it is probably more practical and cost effective but haven't they found in areas where they have tested everyone, whole hospitals, closed off Italian hilltop towns etc that around 40% of positive tests are on people who have shown no symptoms? At the moment we are missing those in the general population of the UK as we do not mass test. Those people are free to wander and, unknowingly, potentially spread the virus.

More than 40%, probably. Asymptomatic transmission, especially originating from people who came into the UK in Feb, March, April is the origin story of the UK Covid pandemic.

I am not against mass testing, especially if it can be done without having a swab shoved into the back of the nose, but the interpretation of the results needs more caution the lower the prevalence. Choosing higher risk populations (NHS staff, care home residents, people in hotspots) mitigates some of those cautions.

Mass antibody testing, and if possible mass testing for Covid sensitive T-cell activation (another aspect of immunity) would be very interesting. Some interesting work on that at the moment. May be that the immunity in the population is much stronger than we think.

Nature paper on T-cell