Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Ethan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484275814468407296

That is a comment published in The Lancet, indeed a well respected medical journal, but not necessarily reflecting the editorial opinion of The Lancet. The author is a modeller, so has more in common with Neil Ferguson than Chris Whitty or JVT.

There is no great debate in medicine about whether Covid will become just another pathogen rivalling flu and others, or not - everyone agrees that will be the case, that immunity will become more complex and flexible, and that vaccines and treatments will become more sophisticated and effective and also will probably only be needed by more vulnerable people such as the elderly and immunocompromised.

The debate is really about whether that timepoint has already been reached, or whether it is to come in the short to medium term, and therefore whether immediate relaxation of measures, or a staged programme of cautious relaxation, is appropriate.

 

[Rooter]

Urgh 2 out of my 4 kids have tested positive today. on the eve of the first weekend plans my wife and I have had for an age!! Very mild so far, fingers crossed it stays like that.

 

[PNWokingham]

When I say it's hardly anything I mean it's not putting people out a lot to do it, not that it's pointless so scrap it.

At this point in time we are not out of this in any shape or form and neither is the NHS, you seem to be ignoring that fact in your considerations.

and by the inverse, the "hardly any measures/ inconvenience" are hardly containing infections and illness by very much given how this has ripped through society and all the non- masked interactions outside of shops and public transport

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Your BiL is eligible for a 4th jab now. Below is a link well worth a read.

https://bloodcancer.org.uk/support-for-you/coronavirus-covid-19/

Thanks Bri - yes - and he's just received the invite.

 

[Foxholer]

and by the inverse, the "hardly any measures/ inconvenience" are hardly containing infections and illness by very much given how this has ripped through society and all the non- masked interactions outside of shops and public transport

Well, that's a separate, although associated, issue. The inability of some folk to grasp the importance of such precautions.

 

[PNWokingham]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484275814468407296

I think this sums up the issues that current measures of mask wearing have limited impact and only really slow the innevitable. This also backs up the rolling back of measures that are coming. Hopefully the money saved from testing, tracing, isolating etc can be invested back in front line services, booster rollouts etc

Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

 

[Foxholer]

I think this sums up the issues that current measures of mask wearing have limited impact and only really slow the innevitable. This also backs up the rolling back of measures that are coming. Hopefully the money saved from testing, tracing, isolating etc can be invested back in front line services, booster rollouts etc

Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

You should identify/acknowledge your sources! They might not all be as reliable as The Lancet, and selective/incomplete quotes may be misleading!

 

[PNWokingham]

You should identify/acknowledge your sources! They might not all be as reliable as The Lancet, and selective/incomplete quotes may be misleading!

i "should" have to.....

This is from the Lancet - same article i was replying to from DS

 

[SaintHacker]

And then you get people like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484300296453070849

?‍??

 

[Ethan]

I think this sums up the issues that current measures of mask wearing have limited impact and only really slow the innevitable. This also backs up the rolling back of measures that are coming. Hopefully the money saved from testing, tracing, isolating etc can be invested back in front line services, booster rollouts etc

Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

That author was a modeller, by the way. He is relying on contemporaneous deaths and hospitalisations for his conclusions. That may be an underestimate of what Omicron can do. Covid has two aspects - the respiratory component, and the inflammatory component. There is no doubt that the respiratory component is much milder than previous variants, but data is emerging on subclinical inflammatory complications (damage to kidneys and liver, for example) of previous variants and it is not at all clear the same does not happen with Omicron, because it may not be proportional to the respiratory effects.

I agree that efforts to contact trace have been hopeless, and very expensively so, in Covid. It wasn't helped by the insane decision taken early on not to test close contacts of known cases. Decent contact tracing helps, though. The next variant may or may not be as apparently mild (although it may have a sting in the tail) or transmissible as Covid. There is no evolutionary pressure on it to get milder, because it transmits before it causes symptoms.

Public health measures have worked. Social distancing has reduced transition of previous variants (and flu). Masks have never been claimed to be a panacea, but they do make a contribution, both to the wearer and others. Some aspects, for example outdoors exposure should have little restriction, but indoors need some care still.

I also agree that mass testing is no longer helpful. Targeted testing or testing for cause should be enough. The rest is for PR purposes.

 

[Beezerk]

And then you get people like this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484300296453070849

?‍??

Must have been sniffing bread that lot ?

 

[Ethan]

i "should" have to.....

This is from the Lancet - same article i was replying to from DS

It is indeed, although it is a comment piece and not an editorial or "official" Lancet position.

 

[SocketRocket]

I think this sums up the issues that current measures of mask wearing have limited impact and only really slow the innevitable. This also backs up the rolling back of measures that are coming. Hopefully the money saved from testing, tracing, isolating etc can be invested back in front line services, booster rollouts etc

Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

You seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself.

 

[DanFST]

So you wear a mask on a train to get to work, Then unmask and mingle with everyone. Maybe then you go to for a drink after, with no mask.

I'm not quite sure what result the quarter arsed measures are supposed to achieve.

 

[Hobbit]

I think this sums up the issues that current measures of mask wearing have limited impact and only really slow the innevitable. This also backs up the rolling back of measures that are coming. Hopefully the money saved from testing, tracing, isolating etc can be invested back in front line services, booster rollouts etc

Surprisingly, IHME models suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA. It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022. The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

If it reduces infections by 10%, maybe the same figure applies to deaths. As a percentage, 10% sounds small but 10% of 100,000 deaths is 10,000 people. If that number can be reduced by applying the restrictions it’s a no brainer.

I used the word people rather than deaths to personalise it. It’s people not just deaths, people.

That aside, I think it’s a poor argument to use Omicron as the reason to write it off as impossible to do anything with. Delta is still out there in significant numbers and is still far more vicious.

I feel you’re only arguing from the economic perspective. There has to middle ground between your total relaxation and any draconian measures still being considered.

 

[Ethan]

So you wear a mask on a train to get to work, Then unmask and mingle with everyone. Maybe then you go to for a drink after, with no mask.

I'm not quite sure what result the quarter arsed measures are supposed to achieve.

Depends on the environment. Public transport is very enclosed, your work may not. There is also a risk exposure aspect. Running across the motorway wearing a blindfold is inadvisable, but you are less likely to get run over doing it once than doing it twice. Quarter arsed is better than no arsed, in other words.

 

[PNWokingham]

You seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself.

i don't need to convince myself - it is what i believe. If things change i may change my views

 

[PNWokingham]

If it reduces infections by 10%, maybe the same figure applies to deaths. As a percentage, 10% sounds small but 10% of 100,000 deaths is 10,000 people. If that number can be reduced by applying the restrictions it’s a no brainer.

I used the word people rather than deaths to personalise it. It’s people not just deaths, people.

That aside, I think it’s a poor argument to use Omicron as the reason to write it off as impossible to do anything with. Delta is still out there in significant numbers and is still far more vicious.

I feel you’re only arguing from the economic perspective. There has to middle ground between your total relaxation and any draconian measures still being considered.

i think that 10% guess is refering to the newt few weeks but reading the rest of the comments and how it talks that policy measures in countries where it has not taken off yet will only delay things - so i would not take that to be 10% less deaths. Just one view - was more intereted in the core message of it that policy measure are of limited use

 

[RichA]

If it reduces infections by 10%, maybe the same figure applies to deaths. As a percentage, 10% sounds small but 10% of 100,000 deaths is 10,000 people. If that number can be reduced by applying the restrictions it’s a no brainer.

I used the word people rather than deaths to personalise it. It’s people not just deaths, people.

That aside, I think it’s a poor argument to use Omicron as the reason to write it off as impossible to do anything with. Delta is still out there in significant numbers and is still far more vicious.

I feel you’re only arguing from the economic perspective. There has to middle ground between your total relaxation and any draconian measures still being considered.

Also 10% fewer hospital admissions, presumably resulting in an increased number of patients on waiting lists getting treated for other conditions.

 

[Hobbit]

i think that 10% guess is refering to the newt few weeks but reading the rest of the comments and how it talks that policy measures in countries where it has not taken off yet will only delay things - so i would not take that to be 10% less deaths. Just one view - was more intereted in the core message of it that policy measure are of limited use

Next few weeks in this country. All measures will work to a greater or lesser extent in each country. And by not helping to resolve issues globally, variants can rebound back into the U.K. with added potency.

But the article is right, if masks are mandated too late it’s a waste of time. But here’s a thought, mandate them now and being too late isn’t an issue.

I find the binary argument applied by so many to be counterproductive. Surely a balance between 100% restrictions and 0% restrictions would balance economics ‘v’ value of lives.