Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[road2ruin]

Wow.
It's a shame you didn't quote the rest of the sentence.

''Three months after having the AstraZeneca vaccine, those who had breakthrough infections were just as likely to spread the Delta variant as the unvaccinated. While protection against transmission decreased in people who had received the Pfizer vaccine, there was still a benefit when compared with unvaccinated people.'' .

My point was that efficacy wanes over time and being vaccinated doesn't stop the spread which was the thinking earlier on in the process. Also, the bit you have highlighted is for those that had Pfizer, most of us had AZ so we're spreading it around just as much as the unvaxxed at the moment.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

View attachment 39098

If you were listening you will have heard KK finish the interview asserting that the government is not being complacent.

 

[GreiginFife]

You really think the testing rate is massively higher here than on the continent?

Here are another couple of worrying stats, courtesy of Sky News this morning. No doubt these are equally meaningless in your view -

The UK now has one of the highest weekly rates of new reported cases in the world, and vaccination rates have fallen behind other European countries.

Data shows that approximately 67% of the population has received two doses of a COVID-19 jab, compared with 75% in Denmark, 79% in Spain and 86% in Portugal.

While the weekly rate of new reported cases stands at 24 per 100,000 people in Spain and 48 per 100,000 people in France, this figure currently stands at 463 per 100,000 people in the UK.

Data comparability will always be a bit tricky though. This also includes data source variance. Sky News say 67% of the population in the UK but the Gov.uk site for Covid data says 78.9% of 12+ have 2 doses (plus we have started a booster programme).

I am in no way a fan of the way this has all been handled but as far as looking at a bunch of numbers and saying who is better or worse without the insight that gives them comparability then I have to say, I need to know more (e.g. we did 6.43 million tests in the last 7 days, what did everyone else do so that I can reliably compare).

 

[rudebhoy]

If you were listening you will have heard KK finish the interview asserting that the government is not being complacent.

Isn't this the guy who The Treasury said recently was well known for making things up?

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

My point was that efficacy wanes over time and being vaccinated doesn't stop the spread which was the thinking earlier on in the process. Also, the bit you have highlighted is for those that had Pfizer, most of us had AZ so we're spreading it around just as much as the unvaxxed at the moment.

One of my sons colleagues had covid at most a couple of months back. He’s now double vaccinated, but was tested positive two days ago and is again off work, feeling grim and isolating.

 

[Banchory Buddha]

Seems hard to imagine that, yet again, we’re ignoring mounting case numbers and leaving taking action until it’s too late.

Not really. Boris.

 

[bobmac]

My point was that efficacy wanes over time and being vaccinated doesn't stop the spread which was the thinking earlier on in the process. Also, the bit you have highlighted is for those that had Pfizer, most of us had AZ so we're spreading it around just as much as the unvaxxed at the moment.

I don't agree.
Maybe Ethan can confirm or deny that claim

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Could I be bold and suggest people look for the data for other countries and do their own comparisons, if pretty easy to access :-

Testing :-


Deaths ;-



Not checked this data myself, but how about ICU admissions, that someone I look at on twitter does (if true, thought this was interesting comparison and not what I expected to see) :-




Do people understand what transitioning to Endemicity looks like, well worth reading up on it if you haven't and start educating yourself with it and adjusting your thoughts on risk or even how you live your life and what daily cases numbers are going to be for each day, of every week, of every year for the rest of our lives.........

Think I would rather now, that mass testing is stopped, only test in particular places etc are not made public, was very anti that to start that, but have changed my mind after seeing how people react to them...

 

[road2ruin]

I don't agree.
Maybe Ethan can confirm or deny that claim

Maybe I am reading your article incorrectly but it appears to say that those who had AZ are just as likely to spread Covid as the unvaccinated after 3 months. Pfizer less so. Given that I was double jabbed in June I am in theory as infectious as an unvaccinated at this point in time.

 

[Tashyboy]

Anymore lockdowns would be pointless, and only do more damage. This isn't going away so we need to get used to it.

Shelter the vulnerable and at risk groups if need be, and let the rest of us get on with life.
Even many of those considered most at risk aren't doing much, if anything to protect themselves.

For the life of me, I cannot think of more damage than dying. Coupled with seeing loved ones deal with the after effects of a loved one taken away.

I am all for getting on with life but if it means that people wear masks in crowded places what hardship is that.

 

[road2ruin]

Could I be bold and suggest people look for the data for other countries and do their own comparisons, if pretty easy to access :-

Testing :-

View attachment 39099
Deaths ;-

View attachment 39100

Not checked this data myself, but how about ICU admissions, that someone I look at on twitter does (if true, thought this was interesting comparison and not what I expected to see) :-

View attachment 39101


Do people understand what transitioning to Endemicity looks like, well worth reading up on it if you haven't and start educating yourself with it and adjusting your thoughts on risk or even how you live your life and what daily cases numbers are going to be for each day, of every week, of every year for the rest of our lives.........

Think I would rather now, that mass testing is stopped, only test in particular places etc are not made public, was very anti that to start that, but have changed my mind after seeing how people react to them...

Thank you, that first graph was exactly the data that I had been looking for.

It goes to show that the previous chart showing how poorly the UK was doing cannot be used without knowing the testing rates. In that one the UK had 40,000 new cases whereas Germany was on 9,000. However with the testing data, the UK is 13.55 tests per 1,000 whilst Germany is 1.6 tests per 1,000. If Germany increased their testing (along with a lot of other countries on the original graph) to the UK level then it would likely look very different.

 

[Banchory Buddha]

For the life of me, I cannot think of more damage than dying. Coupled with seeing loved ones deal with the after effects of a loved one taken away.

I am all for getting on with life but if it means that people wear masks in crowded places what hardship is that.

This. And the drama around passports. People are dying, it makes almost no difference for you to do this so just do it.

 

[Ethan]

My point was that efficacy wanes over time and being vaccinated doesn't stop the spread which was the thinking earlier on in the process. Also, the bit you have highlighted is for those that had Pfizer, most of us had AZ so we're spreading it around just as much as the unvaxxed at the moment.

Antibody levels wane after time, as they do for every infection and vaccination. This is not news nor a matter of particular concern.

Immune memory is the longer lasting form of immunity. This is essentially like beefing up security for an imminent threat, then standing them down after a period of time but keeping them on alert.

Immune memory can confer life-long immunity, but this appears unlikely with Covid. Immune memory is weaker in older people and some of those with other immune disorders. These people probably need boosters.

The epidemiological evidence on efficacy waning needs to also be considered in the context of populations and changing risk circumstances. The first people vaccinated were a combination also those most likely to have a weaker response, and to lose immunity, but also healthcare workers. The former group are both most likely to lose immunity but are also the easiest to be tipped over into an admission due to an infection that a youndger person would get through at home. That trend may not continue as waves of "better" candidates come through. Also, risk of reinfection changes with external environmental changes. If the population risk rises, so does the risk of reinfection, albeit at a proportionately lower rate. So it is hard to compare the risk now with the risk then and simply conclude that the efficacy is waning.

It is true that AZ confers a lower level of durable protection. This is why the Govt has dropped it from the booster strategy, but also why the booster stagey covers all ages and not just, as they do elsewhere, older and higher risk people.

However, it is untrue, as I pointed out above, that AZ-vaxxed people are spreading it just as much as unvaxed people. AZ confers decent protection against infection but also transmission. If you become infected, you can spread it, but there is very good evidence that puts it beyond and scientific doubt AZ-vaxed people are definitely and demonstrably at lower risk of doing so than unvaxed people.

 

[rudebhoy]

Could I be bold and suggest people look for the data for other countries and do their own comparisons, if pretty easy to access :-

Testing :-

View attachment 39099

That's useful.

So roughly speaking, we are testing twice as many people as France and 3 times as many as Italy and Spain. Unfortunately our confirmed cases are 10 times that of France, and 20 times that of Italy and Spain.

It also worth bearing in mind that a lot of tests would be for suspected cases, so if our confirmed rates are 10 or 20 times that of our neighbours, you would expect our testing numbers to be higher as we would have proportionally more suspected cases.

 

[Ethan]

Could I be bold and suggest people look for the data for other countries and do their own comparisons, if pretty easy to access :-

Testing :-

View attachment 39099
Deaths ;-

View attachment 39100

Not checked this data myself, but how about ICU admissions, that someone I look at on twitter does (if true, thought this was interesting comparison and not what I expected to see) :-

View attachment 39101


Do people understand what transitioning to Endemicity looks like, well worth reading up on it if you haven't and start educating yourself with it and adjusting your thoughts on risk or even how you live your life and what daily cases numbers are going to be for each day, of every week, of every year for the rest of our lives.........

Think I would rather now, that mass testing is stopped, only test in particular places etc are not made public, was very anti that to start that, but have changed my mind after seeing how people react to them...

I agree, partially, with your general point that high levels of testing are not necessarily very informative, especially LFT testing.

But if you look at your graphs, the first one (tests) has UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain. The second one (deaths) doesn't have any of those apart from the UK, but has Romania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Lithuania. The testing numbers would be more understandable if the graph included the same countries. Europe is listed, close in numbers to the UK. If we consider that there are high rates of death in Romania, Bulgaria and so on, it seems reasonable to infer that the average European rate must therefore have rates lower than the UK in some of the other non-eastern European countries, wouldn't you say? Reports from near neighbours in Europe do not report the same levels of admission or death as in the UK. On ICU numbers, Germany (and most other Western European countries) has considerably greater provision of ICU than the UK, so they have a lower br to admission to ICU and therefore have more capacity to admit people earlier than they would in the UK. They are not like for like comparisons.

 

[BiMGuy]

For the life of me, I cannot think of more damage than dying. Coupled with seeing loved ones deal with the after effects of a loved one taken away.

I am all for getting on with life but if it means that people wear masks in crowded places what hardship is that.

People die. It's what we do best.

Sorry, but people seem to have forgotten about all the other reasons people die, thousands of them every day. Covid is just another thing to add to the list.

Lockdowns don't work. The people we locked down to protect have gone back to life as normal. Those who should have been wearing masks have special lanyards to exempt themselves.

Meanwhile our children continue to receive a sub standard education, many have anxiety they didn't have before. People are losing their jobs, there is a massive cost that is being kicked down the road that future generations will have to pay for.

Most of the people looking for further restrictions apear to be the ones who it will have the least effect on. No job or mortgage to worry about, and won't have to pay in the long term.

Can someone tell me what the endgame is? Because I can't see one....

 

[Deleted member 21258]

For the life of me, I cannot think of more damage than dying. Coupled with seeing loved ones deal with the after effects of a loved one taken away.

I am all for getting on with life but if it means that people wear masks in crowded places what hardship is that.

Do you think Masks are the answer to what you say ?

I wonder where public health messaging has gone wrong, if you seriously think that is the answer tbh

By all means go and get some proper face fitted N99 masks, if you dont want to catch covid. I wear N99 whenever I must go into somewhere for example.

 

[rudebhoy]

Thank you, that first graph was exactly the data that I had been looking for.

It goes to show that the previous chart showing how poorly the UK was doing cannot be used without knowing the testing rates. In that one the UK had 40,000 new cases whereas Germany was on 9,000. However with the testing data, the UK is 13.55 tests per 1,000 whilst Germany is 1.6 tests per 1,000. If Germany increased their testing (along with a lot of other countries on the original graph) to the UK level then it would likely look very different.

Funny how you picked Germany out, and ignored France, Spain and Italy where the ratio of tests to cases is massively better than ours.

Re the point about the low number of tests in Germany, it's worth bearing in mind that we are routinely testing a large number of people with no symptoms (eg school and NHS workers) so you would expect a low hit rate for them. The German numbers suggest they are not routinely testing key workers to anything like the same extent. If the Germans are mainly testing suspected cases rather than non-symptomatic ones, you would expect their ratio of tests to cases to be high.

 

[road2ruin]

Meanwhile our children continue to receive a sub standard education, many have anxiety they didn't have before.

Was listening to a phone in the other day, a lady rang in to say her 16yr old niece was now too scared to leave the home due to the risk of Covid. That's horrendous to think that a healthy 16yr old has become that scared of a virus that carried (largely speaking) no risk or her. Obviously this is an extreme case but I would imagine not isolated and we have to get the message across to these types of people that they are safe, they need to get back to normal and it's those at risk that we need to take the precautions and be protected.

 

[road2ruin]

Funny how you picked Germany out, and ignored France, Spain and Italy where the ratio of tests to cases is massively better than ours.

Re the point about the low number of tests in Germany, it's worth bearing in mind that we are routinely testing a large number of people with no symptoms (eg school and NHS workers) so you would expect a low hit rate for them. The German numbers suggest they are not routinely testing key workers to anything like the same extent. If the Germans are mainly testing suspected cases rather than non-symptomatic ones, you would expect their ratio of tests to cases to be high.

Okay, sorry....

Spain 1.52
France 7.3
Italy 5.91

I wouldn't call that massively better.