MKDave
Challenge Tour Pro
Morning all
I went to a Cheltenham Preview last night at Towcester rase course and thought I'd share what I feel came out of the preview.
Among the board was Gary Wiltshere, Dean 'the couch' Winstanley, Matt Chapman, Paddy Brennan and a couple of stat and time form monkeys.
Day 1:
The main feeling for Day one is to appose Cue Card in the festival opener, the Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle . The race has a notorious record for getting favourites beaten and they all feel that Cue Card is not as strong this year as Dunguib was last year, and Dunguib got beaten a mile. The only thing that was said to take from this race is that is Cue Card does manage to win, then Menorah will certinaly shorten for the champion hurdle. However, there were cases, both postive and negative, to be made for plenty of horse in the Champion Hurdle and the general feel was that this is not really a punting opportunity. In fact the only horse they all agreed would be worth a nibble at now as it will surely be half the odds on the day is Definity in the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase. 10/1+ the field will not be how it fairs on the day and the panel felt that Difinity was a horse who would be certian to shorten on the day. The consensus in the Arkle was that the bookies had the race spot on with Finians Rainbow Medermit and Ghizao all roughly joint favourites. They felt the winner of the race must come from this trio.
Day 2
Day 2 brought 3 fancies to the fore front. Firstly, So Young in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle appears to tick all the right boxes, and although the horse has shortened from 14/1 to around 6/1 there is still a small amount of value about the horse and its chances.
Secondly, in the RSA a very strong case was made for Time For Rupert. Around about a 5/2 chance, this horse looks a worthy favourite and clearly the horse to beat. The only slight negative is the fact Time For Rupert missed his prep race due to weather conditions, however the owner was still bullish about his chances.
Call the Police in the Coral Cup looks certain to go off favourite on the day and the panel felt this would be the most likely winner of the race. Not a single negative was posted about this horse, althought the race was not discussed in great length.
Masterminded got his usual mention. They still believe he has the ability to win the race but are not sure he has really progressed from his first impressive win. The wind operation seems to have worked wonders up to now but they all agreed that these operations to wear off and feel masterminded is one to oppose. A case was made for both Big Zeb and Sizing Europe but neither really stand out. Small stakes interest if playing.
Day 3
My festival banker (well I hope) and my favourite cheltenham horse appears in the shape of Big Bucks. The panel could not have anything negative to say about this horse and all agree that Grand Crus is seriously shorter than it should be. This all amounts to Big Bucks being available at odds against in some places which is massive when you consider how the horse has not lost since Sam Thomas jumped shipped 11 races ago. Big Bucks was 6/4 after winning last year so to have seen the horse run aswell as ever and now still available around 5/4 leads us to feel that this is THE banker of the meeting. It will go odds on at the course and really represents a 1/2 shot.
Poquelin in the Ryan Air was the only other horse to have postive things said about him and should be shorter than the 7/2 generally available right now.
Day 4
All the talk about day 4 was in relation to how the Gold Cup is like a veterans race this year. For the first time in about 50 years we have 3 Gold Cup winners in this race but they all felt that Denman and Kauto Star were now too old and nothing else really stood out as a contender. This left them all with last years winner Imperial Commander as the leading candidate although Paddy Brennan did state that compared to last year Imperial commander was 85-90% of the horse he was. Paddy still felt this was enough.
A very strong chance has been given to Sir Des Champs trained by Willie Mullins. The horse is entered in 4 races but this is the race he will run in so we're told and is about a 10/1 shot. This will be much shorter on the day.
Summary
What I've taken from the review is that this cheltenham looks as difficult as ever to pick a winner. From the review last night I've listed below the horses which seem to have a good case for them and rated how bullish the panel were.
Big Bucks - World Hurdle ***
Time For Rupert - RSA **
Definity - Centenary *
Sir Des Champs - Martin Pipe Conditional *
So Young - Neptune *
Call the Police - Coral Cup *
Thanks for reading. Really hope it's of some use.
P.S I didn't back one winner last year
I went to a Cheltenham Preview last night at Towcester rase course and thought I'd share what I feel came out of the preview.
Among the board was Gary Wiltshere, Dean 'the couch' Winstanley, Matt Chapman, Paddy Brennan and a couple of stat and time form monkeys.
Day 1:
The main feeling for Day one is to appose Cue Card in the festival opener, the Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle . The race has a notorious record for getting favourites beaten and they all feel that Cue Card is not as strong this year as Dunguib was last year, and Dunguib got beaten a mile. The only thing that was said to take from this race is that is Cue Card does manage to win, then Menorah will certinaly shorten for the champion hurdle. However, there were cases, both postive and negative, to be made for plenty of horse in the Champion Hurdle and the general feel was that this is not really a punting opportunity. In fact the only horse they all agreed would be worth a nibble at now as it will surely be half the odds on the day is Definity in the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase. 10/1+ the field will not be how it fairs on the day and the panel felt that Difinity was a horse who would be certian to shorten on the day. The consensus in the Arkle was that the bookies had the race spot on with Finians Rainbow Medermit and Ghizao all roughly joint favourites. They felt the winner of the race must come from this trio.
Day 2
Day 2 brought 3 fancies to the fore front. Firstly, So Young in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle appears to tick all the right boxes, and although the horse has shortened from 14/1 to around 6/1 there is still a small amount of value about the horse and its chances.
Secondly, in the RSA a very strong case was made for Time For Rupert. Around about a 5/2 chance, this horse looks a worthy favourite and clearly the horse to beat. The only slight negative is the fact Time For Rupert missed his prep race due to weather conditions, however the owner was still bullish about his chances.
Call the Police in the Coral Cup looks certain to go off favourite on the day and the panel felt this would be the most likely winner of the race. Not a single negative was posted about this horse, althought the race was not discussed in great length.
Masterminded got his usual mention. They still believe he has the ability to win the race but are not sure he has really progressed from his first impressive win. The wind operation seems to have worked wonders up to now but they all agreed that these operations to wear off and feel masterminded is one to oppose. A case was made for both Big Zeb and Sizing Europe but neither really stand out. Small stakes interest if playing.
Day 3
My festival banker (well I hope) and my favourite cheltenham horse appears in the shape of Big Bucks. The panel could not have anything negative to say about this horse and all agree that Grand Crus is seriously shorter than it should be. This all amounts to Big Bucks being available at odds against in some places which is massive when you consider how the horse has not lost since Sam Thomas jumped shipped 11 races ago. Big Bucks was 6/4 after winning last year so to have seen the horse run aswell as ever and now still available around 5/4 leads us to feel that this is THE banker of the meeting. It will go odds on at the course and really represents a 1/2 shot.
Poquelin in the Ryan Air was the only other horse to have postive things said about him and should be shorter than the 7/2 generally available right now.
Day 4
All the talk about day 4 was in relation to how the Gold Cup is like a veterans race this year. For the first time in about 50 years we have 3 Gold Cup winners in this race but they all felt that Denman and Kauto Star were now too old and nothing else really stood out as a contender. This left them all with last years winner Imperial Commander as the leading candidate although Paddy Brennan did state that compared to last year Imperial commander was 85-90% of the horse he was. Paddy still felt this was enough.
A very strong chance has been given to Sir Des Champs trained by Willie Mullins. The horse is entered in 4 races but this is the race he will run in so we're told and is about a 10/1 shot. This will be much shorter on the day.
Summary
What I've taken from the review is that this cheltenham looks as difficult as ever to pick a winner. From the review last night I've listed below the horses which seem to have a good case for them and rated how bullish the panel were.
Big Bucks - World Hurdle ***
Time For Rupert - RSA **
Definity - Centenary *
Sir Des Champs - Martin Pipe Conditional *
So Young - Neptune *
Call the Police - Coral Cup *
Thanks for reading. Really hope it's of some use.
P.S I didn't back one winner last year
