Doon frae Troon
Ryder Cup Winner
Spot on, the most sensible post on here for months.
I would add that what is left of the Tory party in the rUK will be in the political wilderness for at least a couple of decades.
Brexit - The negotiations.
- Thread starter spongebob59
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Spot on, the most sensible post on here for months.
I would add that what is left of the Tory party in the rUK will be in the political wilderness for at least a couple of decades.
drdel
Tour Rookie
So the EU claims 90% of haddock in Celtic waters with France taking 66%. I guess you would be happy the oil and gas in the Scottish region should be split along the sames lines as a natural resource in UK seas.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
I’m sure as a Leave voter we made the right decision, but I still worry when seeing articles like the one below that we are possibly going to create our own problems by not slowing down a touch and stop insisting on a hard deadline date after the impact Covid has had and continues to have on the world this year
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/brex...emand-urgent-meeting-with-government-12063228
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/brex...emand-urgent-meeting-with-government-12063228
Grant85
Head Pro
The problem is, there is a reason why the EU does not have Free Trade Agreements with the US as well as most of Asia... there is no alignment in regulation and standards.
Obviously the EU still trade with the US, India, China etc. but to pretend that getting FTAs with these places will be easier to negotiate and operate, or better than what we had, is just not being realistic. These things will take years to work out and Britain is a much smaller nation than a lot of Brexiteers seem to believe, meaning they will not hold as many cards as would be optimal.
None of us can truly know the ins and outs of what goes on in these trade negotiations, but I'm fairly sure that an easy EU deal, that Liam Fox was talking about, would effectively mean regulatory alignment, which would restrict what deals could be done with other nations (and effectively waters down Brexit to name only).
A complicated deal with the EU will take 10 years - which is probably the only realistic option to have a Brexit that is beneficial and meaningful. Politically Boris has to avoid that because of what he said to get elected as Tory leader and to get a mandate from the people with his 'oven ready deal'.
I'm just a guy who watches the news and clearly the vast majority of the population don't even do that or try to understand these issues. Which is why it is important that the government are a lot more up front about our options and how difficult they will be in practice to implement. Especially to implement what has been promised.
Boris clearly didn't go out of his way to advise people that his Oven Ready Deal was just a withdrawal agreement and we still have this period of negotiation, which as things stand, is going to lead to a No deal scenario and possibly hundreds of businesses becoming unviable over night.
D
Deleted member 1418
Guest
FTAs can actually be fairly easy to negotiate as they don't have to be complex. A number of countries have concluded FTAs in a matter of months not years.
Unfortunately the EU does not have a great reputation on how it conducts itself in FTA and other negotiations, especially with those countries that are classed as 'least developed'.
Unfortunately the EU does not have a great reputation on how it conducts itself in FTA and other negotiations, especially with those countries that are classed as 'least developed'.
PNWokingham
Journeyman Pro
well said Paul. And beginning from total uniformity of standards is a perfect starting base. But one side being forced to agree to align to rules made by the other is not and does not make sense for any FTA. There should of course be mutual standards, especially in areas such as animal welfare etc - but that does not mean that both sides have to have the same rulebook that one side controls and enforces. A lot of the benefits of being free from the EU will be in the detail of how things are done - but that does not necessarily mean lower standards. And in relation to other trade deals, do we want chlorinated chicken etc - i don't actually care as long as it is labled as such and the public have a choice. And clearly, if we do get it, it will not be passed on to the EU. And judging from what i have read of state subsidies etc, the EU have much more form on this than the UK, so that smacks as desperation to think we will end up a country that is heavily state sponsored as that is agaisnt the Conservative (at least) principals, and is just another ruse from the EU to cling on to power - and don't forget that they want to make it as hard as possible for us to show to everybody else the futility of leaving the beaurocratic club as it advances on its federalist journey!
I think the odds are now tipped against getting a deal - maybe 60:40 - but would still not rule out a deal at the wire and a fanfare of each side claining a great deal. But for that to happen, the EU has to move more than we will. I have no doubt that fishing has a good deal of flex around a deal more on the UK side of thinking - but will the EU drop the ECJ and agree common minimum standards for different industries and with a shared arbitration process rather than using its own rule book (i.e. the same as any other FTA)? Who knows. The ball is in their court. But if we get a no deal, i expect a big push for free ports, enterprise zones, large tax breaks to lure foreign investment etc - and we will fight the beurocratic EU with greater business incentives. Maybe even borrow a bit of labour's "Green Industrial revolution" and push ahead with great projects like tidal barriers in Cardiff and Swansea and maybe turn the country into a big net exporter of electricity to the EU in 20 years!
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
There is absolutely no reason for a free trade deal with the EU to take many (10) years, an 'oven ready' deal template is already available in the Canada Deal, the one the EU was pushing for once. We have almost completed a deal with Japan, that didnt take 10 years.
Deals with India and China are as you say, not currently made with the EU so we wont be any worse off there then. I do find your attitude and that of so many who voted remain so negative and almost a 'Freudenschade' way of thinking. OK, we will lose some and win some but most people who wanted us out the EU arnt so naive to believe life will now be all beer and skittles, there were so many reasons why they decided membership wasn't for them.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
I don’t have enough knowledge or experience in these matters to disagree with anything you’ve put.
So, from a “normal bloke” why did WE think it would be any better or different with us? If this awareness is out there, why put ourselves under pressure and “seemingly” keep blaming the EU and Barnier for the problems?
D
Deleted member 1418
Guest
Because they are the ones that are! PNWokingham has covered a lot of the issues in his last post, but what it boils down to is the EU are scared of having a goods and services powerhouse right on their doorstep.
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
Sorry mate, but that’s not answered what I asked, PN’s answer is also a lot of whataboutery.
Surely the EU’s job is to look after their members and their interests, I would hope our negotiators are looking after ours.
chrisd
Major Champion
Whether or not they are scared the fact is that they are still going to end up with that scenario anyway. Surely better to do a deal with us and end up with some fishing rights and more harmony rather than a trade war
D
Deleted member 16999
Guest
If that’s our position then fine, but a trade war may not be in our best interests either.
We certainly shouldn’t cave in, but we’ve got to be prepared for the worst come 01 Jan.
Grant85
Head Pro
Well we are already over 4 years on from the Brexit vote and very limited progress has been made on that front. It took 2.5 years for a withdrawal agreement to be drafted and a further year for the UK to actually sign it. So these things tend to take a long time.
And ultimately Canada is not the UK. There are many differences, not least that the UK is starting from the position of being a member state and having supply chain, businesses, people and activities already very reliant on regular cross border trade and activity.
And if it is so simple to replicate the Canada agreement why hasn't this happened already or being fast tracked to come into place for January? (ultimately the answer to this question doesn't matter, whether it's politics or practicality, the fact it hasn't happened confirms that your statement about being absolutely no reason a free trade deal should take many years as incorrect.
And whether it's 10 years, or 4 years or even 2.5 years, it seems very unlikely it will be 1 year after the withdrawal agreement was signed (i.e. 4 months from now).
Ethan
Money List Winner
Wow, too much rational thought there. You will probably shortly be invited to leave the country as you obviously hate it.
drdel
Tour Rookie
It could be simple to replicate the Canadian deal: after all Barnier did propose that as a solution. However that was when he thought PM May would roll over in the EU's favour.
I'd respectively suggest you read some if the European press and economic assessments of the EU's future - there is simply not enough growth to maintain the debt they have ranked up. The UK will continue to trade and there is ample time to do deals. The world and trade deals will not end in December, businesses will adapt and the public will still eat, drink and live.
SocketRocket
Ryder Cup Winner
The reason theres not a Canada style deal is that Barnier having offered it once quickly withdrew it as he believed the UK were wriggling on his hook when May was PM and the government were under the cosh prior to the last election. He now is too pumped up with his own importance to offer a fair deal and still believes the UK will capitulate to his unreasonable demands.
Regarding timescales have you seen how quickly a near ready trade deal with Japan has taken? It just requires a will to make it happen by both parties being reasonable.
BBC News - UK and Japan look to seal trade deal within month
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53697547
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chrisd
Major Champion
He's going to look rather silly when he has to back track on the tosh that he's spoken ??
Grant85
Head Pro
re: lack of growth. Ultimately that is the sign / symptom of a mature economy. Japan has been in this position for about 3 decades and it's people still enjoy a rich quality of life and their currency retains good buying power around the world.
Is a lack of growth ideal, no, but inflation will still do it's bit for the debt. And most countries / currencies run large deficits and these rarely become a problem.
When China's population consists mainly of middle class, educated people and their parents they will likely experience similar periods of low growth.
But even if you take the view that the EU countries effectively become a Japan. It's still not certain the UK can extricate itself from the EU and do much better, if you really feel they need to. The problems of a mature economy, large middle class population and an ageing population are much the same as in Japan and large areas of the Eurozone.
drdel
Tour Rookie
I don't share you comparison of the EU with Japan. Japan has a currency with a internationally set rate. The EU has kept the EU down to assist its exports (which has done the UK harm).
There is huge disparity in the 27 members with only a small number of net contributors. I doubt that many in Greece, Italy, Spain. Poland and the newer Eastern member would agree they have a rich standard of life.
Inflation may marginally reduce the 'numerical' debt of today's cash the average interest rates still exceed the IR and the debt is being continuously topped up by more and more borrowing and QE that was supposed to kickstart growth but it has not reached to countries since it is been swallowed up by the Banks (mainly German banks who 'hold' the debt!
PNWokingham
Journeyman Pro
Dee day looms - let's hope Barnier is properly sidelined and the EU can show a dose of realism
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...l-days-unless-eu-realises-britain-serious-no/
The Brexit negotiations will be over in days unless the EU realises Britain is serious about no-deal, government sources have warned.
The eighth round of talks with Brussels begin on Tuesday, with progress crucial if the two sides are to finally reach an agreement.
It comes as the Telegraph reported on Saturday that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier is to be sidelined in a bid to break the deadlock.
But as the deadline on the discussions fast approaches, No 10 insiders say there will be no deal unless the bloc shows “more realism” on the “scale of the change that results from our departure”.
They have accused the EU of blindly “following a self-imposed doctrine of parallelism” without realising that what they are asking for is “completely at odds with what the British people voted for, twice”.
They also claim the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been stalling progress by refusing the UK’s offer of allowing them to share a consolidated text with the 27 remaining member states.
A source close to the negotiations said: “We intensified the talks in July in order to reach a broad outline of an agreement this summer.
“Due to the EU’s repeated refusal to accept that in key areas we need to do things in our own way, reflecting our new status as a sovereign, independent country, those difficult discussions are ongoing.
“We now face a critical round of negotiations in London. We will continue to set out our reasonable arguments, which have remained the same since talks began in February - that we want an agreement based on precedent. It’s time the EU accepted that so we can move on.”
The source added that the EU needs to realise Britain is “serious” about leaving with an Australian-style free trading relationship if a deal cannot be struck.
“The whole Government has been extensively preparing to ensure that businesses and citizens are ready for the end of the transition period in any scenario,” the source added. “Outside the customs union, outside the single market and outside the EU.”
Last week, a leaked government document warned of “critical gaps” in new IT systems designed to get EU borders ready for post-Brexit trade when the transition period ends in four months time.
Yet government sources insist they are so serious about preparing for leaving on Australian terms on December 31 that work on readiness is being ramped up, with officials across departments working “at pace” on Britain’s preparedness.
A new No 10 Transition Hub has been created, drawing "the best and brightest" officials from across Whitehall. Situated directly above No 10's policy unit officials in 70 Whitehall, it is tasked with having a central grip on transition work, working closely with Michael Gove and the Cabinet Office. The new unit will be staffed by civil servants in the office, with the use of live data.
Boris Johnson has insisted that the UK will still "prosper mightily" whatever the outcome of the talks.
A Whitehall source said: “For four years now we have been clear that our sovereignty is non-negotiable – and our status as an independent country will not be compromised. This is what the British people voted for and is something we will deliver on 1 January 2021, regardless of the outcome of negotiations.”
It came as the UK's chief negotiator said the Government is not "scared" of walking away from talks with the European Union without a deal and vowed not to blink in the final phase.
Lord Frost told the Mail on Sunday the UK would not agree to being a "client state" to the EU over issues such as fishery rights and vetoes on laws.
He said: "We came in after a Government and negotiating team that had blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments and the EU had learned not to take our word seriously.
"So a lot of what we are trying to do this year is to get them to realise that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...l-days-unless-eu-realises-britain-serious-no/
The Brexit negotiations will be over in days unless the EU realises Britain is serious about no-deal, government sources have warned.
The eighth round of talks with Brussels begin on Tuesday, with progress crucial if the two sides are to finally reach an agreement.
It comes as the Telegraph reported on Saturday that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier is to be sidelined in a bid to break the deadlock.
But as the deadline on the discussions fast approaches, No 10 insiders say there will be no deal unless the bloc shows “more realism” on the “scale of the change that results from our departure”.
They have accused the EU of blindly “following a self-imposed doctrine of parallelism” without realising that what they are asking for is “completely at odds with what the British people voted for, twice”.
They also claim the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been stalling progress by refusing the UK’s offer of allowing them to share a consolidated text with the 27 remaining member states.
A source close to the negotiations said: “We intensified the talks in July in order to reach a broad outline of an agreement this summer.
“Due to the EU’s repeated refusal to accept that in key areas we need to do things in our own way, reflecting our new status as a sovereign, independent country, those difficult discussions are ongoing.
“We now face a critical round of negotiations in London. We will continue to set out our reasonable arguments, which have remained the same since talks began in February - that we want an agreement based on precedent. It’s time the EU accepted that so we can move on.”
The source added that the EU needs to realise Britain is “serious” about leaving with an Australian-style free trading relationship if a deal cannot be struck.
“The whole Government has been extensively preparing to ensure that businesses and citizens are ready for the end of the transition period in any scenario,” the source added. “Outside the customs union, outside the single market and outside the EU.”
Last week, a leaked government document warned of “critical gaps” in new IT systems designed to get EU borders ready for post-Brexit trade when the transition period ends in four months time.
Yet government sources insist they are so serious about preparing for leaving on Australian terms on December 31 that work on readiness is being ramped up, with officials across departments working “at pace” on Britain’s preparedness.
A new No 10 Transition Hub has been created, drawing "the best and brightest" officials from across Whitehall. Situated directly above No 10's policy unit officials in 70 Whitehall, it is tasked with having a central grip on transition work, working closely with Michael Gove and the Cabinet Office. The new unit will be staffed by civil servants in the office, with the use of live data.
Boris Johnson has insisted that the UK will still "prosper mightily" whatever the outcome of the talks.
A Whitehall source said: “For four years now we have been clear that our sovereignty is non-negotiable – and our status as an independent country will not be compromised. This is what the British people voted for and is something we will deliver on 1 January 2021, regardless of the outcome of negotiations.”
It came as the UK's chief negotiator said the Government is not "scared" of walking away from talks with the European Union without a deal and vowed not to blink in the final phase.
Lord Frost told the Mail on Sunday the UK would not agree to being a "client state" to the EU over issues such as fishery rights and vetoes on laws.
He said: "We came in after a Government and negotiating team that had blinked and had its bluff called at critical moments and the EU had learned not to take our word seriously.
"So a lot of what we are trying to do this year is to get them to realise that we mean what we say and they should take our position seriously."
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