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Brexit - The negotiations.

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Mudball said:
Call me thick.. but i have stopped following Brexit as much as i have stopped listening to the daily Covid car crash briefings. There are some red lines with this political lot
1) There is one rule for us and another for the others
2) Do as I say, not as I do
3) If it serves the party (leader & his clique) and the next election then it is fair game
4) If the topic becomes too difficult, then change the narrative or give people something else to talk about
5) If you can score political points - within the country or against the EU - then do so
6) Experts - who needs them
7) Rest of the country - who needs them. Let the kids go hungry during summer - they cannot vote as yet.
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Pleased to say they have U turned on that now, well played Marcus. Who knew even the current Tory party have a limit beyond which they say 'you know what, may be we are behaving a bit like scum bags and taking this only caring for our rich donors thing a bit too far'.

I look forwards to Harry Maguire explaining to them that Brexit isn't possibly the brightest thing to do at the moment, what with one thing and another. ;)

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...hford-politicians-nurses-footballer-ministers
 
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Hacker Khan said:
Pleased to say they have U turned on that now, well played Marcus. Who knew even the current Tory party have a limit beyond which they say 'you know what, may be we are behaving a bit like scum bags and taking this only caring for our rich donors thing a bit too far'.

I look forwards to Harry Maguire explaining to them that Brexit isn't possibly the brightest thing to do at the moment, what with one thing and another. ;)

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...hford-politicians-nurses-footballer-ministers
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Maybe Mr Maguire could check with Johnson and Gove that they fully understand GATT Article XXIV para 5c - you know - the one that Johnson hadn't read - telling Neil that he would confide entirely in para 5b. I do hope that they have got Frost working on the shape of the future trade agreement and a plan to get to that agreement as it certainly looks like we're going to need it...in accordance with para 5c...

Though the truth is that if the EU honestly believe that the UK to be rowing back on agreements we made in the Political Declaration (and of course they may be lying through their teeth to make UK look like renegers) then they could be hesitant over what they agree with us in respect of the shape of any future trading agreement under WTO rules they sign up to. Likewise and equally (as for balance that is required) UK can certainly mistrust anything the EU say or sign up to. So we should be wary signing up to any such framework...
 
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SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Maybe Mr Maguire could check with Johnson and Gove that they fully understand GATT Article XXIV para 5c - you know - the one that Johnson hadn't read - telling Neil that he would confide entirely in para 5b. I do hope that they have got Frost working on the shape of the future trade agreement and a plan to get to that agreement as it certainly looks like we're going to need it...in accordance with para 5c...
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It was a very valid point when this came up LAST YEAR. The outline discussions earlier this week looked like they were going to be working towards a framework agreement to cover this..... but I guess you missed it...... or chose to ignore it.
 
Hobbit said:
It was a very valid point when this came up LAST YEAR. The outline discussions earlier this week looked like they were going to be working towards a framework agreement to cover this..... but I guess you missed it...... or chose to ignore it.
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GATT Article XXIV Para 5c allows for two parties to trade under WTO rules with bilateral agreements in place - perhaps for specific sectors - so long as there is an agreed outline target trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and a plan to get from the current situation (UK trading with EU countries as we did when members of the EU) to that future agreement.

This does not mean that any special temporary agreements on specific sectors that we might make with the EU will not go unchallenged. Under WTO rules any WTO partner can challenge what the UK and the EU might agree between themselves on a temporary basis. If that challenge is upheld by the WTO (a WTO partner countries vote), WTO rules mean that any such arrangements we make are not allowed, and that all WTO partner countries must be able to trade with the UK on the same basis as we agree with the EU.

Well that is how I understand para 5c. That's the bit that Johnson didn't appear to know about when he said UK would agree special arrangements with the EU if we had to trade under WTO rules.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
GATT Article XXIV Para 5c allows for two parties to trade under WTO rules with bilateral agreements in place - perhaps for specific sectors - so long as there is an agreed outline target trade agreement between the UK and the EU, and a plan to get from the current situation (UK trading with EU countries as we did when members of the EU) to that future agreement.

This does not mean that any special temporary agreements on specific sectors that we might make with the EU will not go unchallenged. Under WTO rules any WTO partner can challenge what the UK and the EU might agree between themselves on a temporary basis. If that challenge is upheld by the WTO (a WTO partner countries vote), WTO rules mean that any such arrangements we make are not allowed, and that all WTO partner countries must be able to trade with the UK on the same basis as we agree with the EU.

Well that is how I understand para 5c. That's the bit that Johnson didn't appear to know about when he said UK would agree special arrangements with the EU if we had to trade under WTO rules.
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And you're repeating yourself again, and again. We know exactly what it means, and I'd be very surprised if Boris doesn't know it after his car crash interview last year. And it isn't Boris doing the detail, thank god.

You need to find something better than last year's point, which you made very well at the time, but is now out of date in terms of the negotiating parties.

For example, there's a piece doing the rounds, on the back of the last meeting, which suggests that both parties are aiming for something very similar to the Canada deal. That deal more than satisfies GATT XXIV as a framework. Don't forget, although there has to be a mutual 'will' to satisfy WTO GATT XXIV, there is actually a fair bit of latitude in it.
 
drdel said:
Despite the PM meeting leaders of the EU it is not worth a mention by the BBC news app.
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Mmm, it does make you wonder. We see a lot of reports about what is going on in the Spanish media. I wonder why the Beeb aren't showing what we see? Maybe I'm being a cynic but I wonder if its because things seem to be swinging a bit towards the UK? No, the Beeb wouldn't do that, surely?
 
Wales - a country of Great Britain and the United Kingdom, to the west of central England; population 2,993,000 (est. 2008); capital, Cardiff.
Scotland - a country forming the northernmost part of Great Britain and of the United Kingdom; population 5,169,000 (est. 2008); capital, Edinburgh.
England - a country forming the largest and southernmost part of Great Britain and of the United Kingdom, and containing the capital, London; population 51,446,000 (est. 2008)
N. Ireland - a province of the United Kingdom that occupies the north-eastern part of Ireland, comprised of six counties of Ulster; population 1,775,000 (est. 2008); capital, Belfast.
 
Doon frae Troon said:
Wales is not a country. It is a Principality of England. :eek:;):love::unsure::censored::cautious:o_O(y)
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Your ignorance is outstanding, you really do need to stop your racist baiting. Have you ever wondered why the majority of your 'friends' and 'relatives' live well away from you out of Scotland. Even your daughter wouldn't represent 'your' country in something or other and she choose England (apparently).
 
And so Johnson tells us that it is countries such as Australia that are going to be the beneficiary of our exports once we are trading under WTO rules. Truth is I am not that sure what it is on the agriculture or manufacturing sides that Australia is going to want to be importing from us on the other side of the world. That said - they seem to love Japanese cars - and we manufacture them in bucket-loads - so maybe...? They certainly don't seem to need our beef - and they are not too far from 'lamb country'.
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
And so Johnson tells us that it is countries such as Australia that are going to be the beneficiary of our exports once we are trading under WTO rules. Truth is I am not that sure what it is on the agriculture or manufacturing sides that Australia is going to want to be importing from us on the other side of the world. That said - they seem to love Japanese cars - and we manufacture them in bucket-loads - so maybe...? They certainly don't seem to need our beef - and they are not too far from 'lamb country'.
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2018 alone we exported close to $6 billion and it's a two way deal so perhaps Australia will see better benefits from us being outside the EU.
 
Hobbit said:
And you're repeating yourself again, and again. We know exactly what it means, and I'd be very surprised if Boris doesn't know it after his car crash interview last year. And it isn't Boris doing the detail, thank god.

You need to find something better than last year's point, which you made very well at the time, but is now out of date in terms of the negotiating parties.

For example, there's a piece doing the rounds, on the back of the last meeting, which suggests that both parties are aiming for something very similar to the Canada deal. That deal more than satisfies GATT XXIV as a framework. Don't forget, although there has to be a mutual 'will' to satisfy WTO GATT XXIV, there is actually a fair bit of latitude in it.
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If we cannot strike a deal with the EU and have to trade with them under WTO rules, we cannot simply strike bilateral deals with the EU unless a target future framework agreement is in place and we have a plan agreed with the EU for working towards that.

That it now seems likely that we will not have a deal agreed, and we leave the transition period on 31st Dec without one, then this becomes important as our exports and imports to and from the EU will otherwise be faced with WTO tariffs. In the context of the state of the economy and business as it is today - that being a very different state than from last year when previously discussed - these tariffs could sink many business currently just keeping afloat.
 
Old Skier said:
2018 alone we exported close to $6 billion and it's a two way deal so perhaps Australia will see better benefits from us being outside the EU.
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Maybe they will. Though not heard too many in the know about Australia tell us that. What is it that we're going to be exporting to Australia that we don't at the moment - or could export more of. What sort of tariffs will apply? And what is a realistic figure for exports to Australia - lets say in 10yrs time?
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
Maybe they will. Though not heard too many in the know about Australia tell us that. What is it that we're going to be exporting to Australia that we don't at the moment - or could export more of. What sort of tariffs will apply? And what is a realistic figure for exports to Australia - lets say in 10yrs time?
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So exactly who's are these people you know on the inside who are the experts on this. Obviously I can only go by the info on the tinternet because due to current restrictions I can't go to the hairdressers
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
If we cannot strike a deal with the EU and have to trade with them under WTO rules, we cannot simply strike bilateral deals with the EU unless a target future framework agreement is in place and we have a plan agreed with the EU for working towards that.

That it now seems likely that we will not have a deal agreed, and we leave the transition period on 31st Dec without one, then this becomes important as our exports and imports to and from the EU will otherwise be faced with WTO tariffs. In the context of the state of the economy and business as it is today - that being a very different state than from last year when previously discussed - these tariffs could sink many business currently just keeping afloat.
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What are WTO tariffs?
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
If we cannot strike a deal with the EU and have to trade with them under WTO rules, we cannot simply strike bilateral deals with the EU unless a target future framework agreement is in place and we have a plan agreed with the EU for working towards that.

That it now seems likely that we will not have a deal agreed, and we leave the transition period on 31st Dec without one, then this becomes important as our exports and imports to and from the EU will otherwise be faced with WTO tariffs. In the context of the state of the economy and business as it is today - that being a very different state than from last year when previously discussed - these tariffs could sink many business currently just keeping afloat.
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WTO tariffs? The WTO tariff database lists the tariffs each countries, or trading organisation(EU), applies. The WTO doesn't create tariffs. "These tariffs..." are these the WTO tariffs that don't exist?

We may not have a trade deal agreed by the end of the year but there may well be an agreed framework. Your point; "we cannot simply strike bilateral deals with the EU unless a target future framework agreement is in place." Please explain... I read that as waffle and gobbledygook - might even be twaddle. Surely everyone creates a framework(specification) for any deal?

Would you agree, sign, anything without a specification, a framework?
 
In other news Pound is becoming an emerging market currency, says BofA analyst
.. https://www.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159

I am sure there is another side to this.. after all we were the 5th or 6th largest economy at some point... Also may not have so much impact if you are hedgie with money offshore - albiet it might make ur even more richer every time ur offshore wealth back into GBP
 
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