New national lockdown from this Wed?

[drdel]

Actually, an effective and brutal lockdown would go some way to eradicate the virus. If it can't propagate, it dies. If it can't transmit, it can't propagate.

Treatments are only part of the answer. Dexa is only useful if you are on oxygenation, and even then the cure rate is modest. Remdesivir is turning out not to be the magic bullet some thought it was, the regeneron antibody cocktail is likewise showing some issues and is very expensive and not scalable. There is no early intervention treatment known to meaningfully reduce the risk of reaching ICU.

Vaccination is the biggest weapon, but current JCVI proposals are to not vaccinate everyone, only those over 50 or care home/NHS workers, and vulnerable people. That leaves a lot of people capable of experiencing serious morbidity uncovered. The policy is clearly still a herd immunity lite (that dare not speak its name) approach.

This thing has a long way to run yet, and Lockdown III is likely in early 2021 after a Christmas shopping/party/kids coming back from Uni surge kicks in.

There is no 'effective lockdown against a pandemic which is present within the international community? Eradication will be only potentially possible with vaccination programmes.

It will depend on the value countries put on life. Notional values vary with age, earning potential and infirmity. There is wide disagreement but an average of about £1.5m is common. It may rise to £4m in some evaluations.

Kidnappers, for example, take a view on what the 'market' will bear.

Distasteful as it may seem but it comes down to money in the end.

Luckily for us we expect politicians to shoulder that responsibility, which will always be open to criticism. Expecially if the 'life' involved is close socially.

 

[Blue in Munich]

Oh, please. Stop trying to portray yourself as golf’s saviour.

What I see here is the vast majority of contributors extremely unhappy at what they see as a decision lacking any basis. Many are signing a petition to try and get this revisited and I am sure others will have emailed either EG or their own local golf union. A very small minority have said they will follow the guidance without question, as not to do so shows our sport in a poor light. I understand and respect their stance, although I don’t agree with them.

You are ploughing a lone furrow, saying unequivocally that you will continue to play at your own club, defying government guidelines. By doing so, if this plays out as we all seem to believe it will, you will also be defying EG and your own club’s guidance, as they will doubtless issue instruction that prevents us all playing.

I have read what you have to say. I absolutely understand your wish to play golf. We all share your wish to play the sport we love. But I simply can’t agree that thumbing your nose at everything and everybody is an approach that anyone should adopt.

My view? If you were a member at my club, and you were the only one to defy a closure and continue playing when everyone else respected the decision to shut, even though they are doubtless as opposed to that decision as you are? When things return to normal I would be lobbying the club to have you thrown out.

According to our pro, some clubs relatively local to ours were hit with fines for ignoring the last set of rules. I know how my club would view my ignoring the ban if it cost them a hefty fine, and it wouldn't be fondly.

 

[Robster59]

I would say your attacking the wrong person lead by your personal circumstances. I’ve never needed social interaction nor am I going to get out for any.
I’m going to disregard a rule that most sane people will find arbitrary and other worldly, hit a ball in one of the most covid secure places on earth with a transmission probability of 0.

I will not be limited to just work for x amount of weeks again for people to undo it all again for a Christmas Day get together.
I will play golf during the lockdown with two four legged friends, because if people can run, cycle or walk for exercise than I can walk with a bag of sticks and balls.

Damn right I see it from a personal viewpoint. Maybe if some of the non conformers had similar circumstances they'd see it differently too. As I type this my stepson is going for a Covid test. Why? His partner has it. Why does she have it? Because someone where she works had gone into work for three days with symptoms and not told anyone. My stepson got told in work where he works with disadvantaged young people. All those people now potentially infected because of one person.
Most sane people are following the rules. It's those who think the rules don't apply to them, of stretch them to fit their needs because it doesn't suit their personal requirements that are keeping us where we are.

 

[Lord Tyrion]

How many people need to work, make a journey to ”allow” you to play golf compared to how many need to be there to ”allow” your wife to go running or her friend to go cycling?

We seem to be forgetting the health and well being of those employed by golf courses and their families.

I think the health and well being of the employees will be better by working, safely, on full pay rather than furloughed on 80%, worried if the course will re-open and kicking their heels at home. No reason for club employees, not non essential, to not be able to work distanced and safely. They would have been doing that for the last 5-8 months anyway

 

[Ethan]

There is no 'effective lockdown against a pandemic which is present within the international community? Eradication will be only potentially possible with vaccination programmes.

It will depend on the value countries put on life. Notional values vary with age, earning potential and infirmity. There is wide disagreement but an average of about £1.5m is common. It may rise to £4m in some evaluations.

Kidnappers, for example, take a view on what the 'market' will bear.

Distasteful as it may seem but it comes down to money in the end.

Luckily for us we expect politicians to shoulder that responsibility, which will always be open to criticism. Expecially if the 'life' involved is close socially.

That is all true. There was a window when a firm lockdown could have fundamentally changed the course, but that window has gone. I think one of the big tensions is between those who see health outcomes and economic recovery as inextricably linked, and those who seem them as a choice between two competing priorities. I am in the former camp, and the lessons of history support that view. As things stand, we are heading for Lockdown III in the new year, after the intense Christmas retail and party season, with kids back from Uni, results in a further surge of cases in late Dec/early Jan.

Vaccines may start to trickle through soon after, but it will take a while to administer them, specially is the NHS is are in the midst of another surge.

The NHS does have a system for valuing life, the Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY), used by NICE. Theoretically this can be used to appraise health and non-health interventions, although it is usually applied narrowly to new medicines. One dimension is based on life years saved or lost, which is based on actuarial life tables, so it applies reducing value with age. A treatment 'saving' a younger person is better value in health economic terms than one saving an older person. The QALY also counts quality of life, so a treatment which doesn't prolong life but can improve quality of life also scores.

 

[drdel]

The petition is based on misguided thinking.

Allowing 'some' leisure sports will encourage more people to disregard the advice.

Public policy is always a blunt instrument as some will think they know best and do as they like. This is why the rate is going up and why we all will pay a higher price because of the "I'm alright Jack" and 'give an inch, take a yard' idiots.

 

[Deleted member 16999]

I think the health and well being of the employees will be better by working, safely, on full pay rather than furloughed on 80%, worried if the course will re-open and kicking their heels at home. No reason for club employees, not non essential, to not be able to work distanced and safely. They would have been doing that for the last 5-8 months anyway

Have they? Are all courses the same, have a look back and see just how many moaned about the state of their course due to furlough.

Whether we are biased or not, not all Greenkeeping Staff are essential.

 

[Doon frae Troon]

Though one big difference between Christmas and Easter is that the date of Good Friday can and does move ?

That always amuses me, is it not something to do with the 5 week after super Sunday.
The original Christmas date has more to do with the pagan midwinter feast at equinox.

BTW amusing interpretations of the word 'National' by the UK leaders when it comes to lockdown.

 

[Tashyboy]

I’m amazed in a golf forum that some don’t even want to support golf. Do you even like your pro or the staff in the clubhouse? Do you deserve a tee time when it all blows over?
Mind blowing.

But is it mind blowing? I support my golf club, but I also support me mum and dad who are well into the eighties and that takes priority. How many members at clubs are seniors? How many fall into the vulnerable category. I don’t agree with the closure of golf clubs. But I respect it. And there in lies part of the problem, Throughout the whole of the Covid, people have not respected the rules Because it don’t fit there agenda.

 

[Old Skier]

True
But it’s got 33k + signatures already, if it reaches 100k then it gets debated in parliament.
It’s democracy in action , I obviously don’t agree with the current decision, but if it is upheld, then I will respect it

You missed the small print, CONSIDERED FOR DEBATE.

 

[Old Skier]

I couldn’t agree more.

Instead golf, and similar outdoor activities, have been swept up with the same broom and a blanket ban imposed. EG went to great lengths to get us all playing again in May, and we are effectively now being told that wasn’t safe. I’m not aware of a single case of covid being transmitted in our clubhouse, never mind out on the course.

There is a lot more at stake here than just the virus. Mental and physical well being are incredibly important as well, and yet this announcement, and more specifically the detail of it, just seems rushed with swathes of it lacking any sort of rationale. I greeted the first lockdown with some positivity - if it had to be done for the greater good then so be it. This time round I have a real sense of despair, as though we seem to be learning nothing.

Royal North Devon had a couple of cases, one being the manager

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Over 63k now...going up a couple of hundred every few seconds..

So should go to Government for discussion around December/January time ? Well thought out

 

[Deleted member 18645]

I'm not down at my club today but already the seniors are going mental on their discussion group about it. And I have witnessed pretty much every one of them ignoring all the rules about social distancing over the past few months. I have already stated to them I will support whatever action the club owners and the EGU take and not their selfish me-first attitude.

 

[Old Skier]

Oh, please. Stop trying to portray yourself as golf’s saviour.

What I see here is the vast majority of contributors extremely unhappy at what they see as a decision lacking any basis. Many are signing a petition to try and get this revisited and I am sure others will have emailed either EG or their own local golf union. A very small minority have said they will follow the guidance without question, as not to do so shows our sport in a poor light. I understand and respect their stance, although I don’t agree with them.

You are ploughing a lone furrow, saying unequivocally that you will continue to play at your own club, defying government guidelines. By doing so, if this plays out as we all seem to believe it will, you will also be defying EG and your own club’s guidance, as they will doubtless issue instruction that prevents us all playing.

I have read what you have to say. I absolutely understand your wish to play golf. We all share your wish to play the sport we love. But I simply can’t agree that thumbing your nose at everything and everybody is an approach that anyone should adopt.

My view? If you were a member at my club, and you were the only one to defy a closure and continue playing when everyone else respected the decision to shut, even though they are doubtless as opposed to that decision as you are? When things return to normal I would be lobbying the club to have you thrown out.

I thing his posts are a complete wind up and WHAAA posted just to get a response. Unless he owns a gold course, there wont be one in the land that will stand by and just let him play and he knows it.

 

[Ethan]

I signed the petition because I think banning golf is unjustified by science. It won't affect me personally either way because I don't even play golf in the winter, have put my clubs away and probably won't set foot in the club until April 2021, if I survive Covid.

We know that indoors is massively more risky for Covid - Chris Whitty, Jon van Tam and others have said so repeatedly, and data shows that more than 95% of cases arise from indoor contact. Exercise is also important, and even encouraged by Govt, and golf authorities have developed sensible precautions to limit the areas of possible risk, probably with some overkill. Clubs have also managed indoors access with show changing in the car park, one way systems for toilet access and the same dining rules that apply elsewhere. I don't think any objective assessment can argue that golf is really a risk area. These rules should be focussed on indoor activities. The difference between indoors and outdoors isn't too complicated for the averagely intelligent person to comprehend, and The Express can explain it to its readers very carefully.

Staff need to be protected too, and it seemed to me that during the early days post lockdown, this was working well too. Groundstaff work outdoors mostly, food serving for takeaway is allowed, so no difference there. Pro shops will likely be swept up in the essential shop rules.

Some of the same applies to other outdoor activities too, and in my opinion, where the risk is minimal and the activity can be adequately 'policed' by staff or volunteers, it should be allowed, whether that is golf, grouse shooting (not that I approve) or something else.

Rules which are rational get better acceptance. Tying the police up trying to throw whatsisname up above off his local course is not a good use of time. They would be better looking for pub lock-ins and house parties.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

So should go to Government for discussion around December/January time ? Well thought out

Stop being obtuse, the lockdown measures are being debated and voted on before implementation on Thursday. It is certainly possible to include amendments in this timeframe.

Although to be fair, I would be very surprised if it passes, but I feel better for making the effort

 

[Deleted member 3432]

Stop being obtuse, the lockdown measures are being debated and voted on before implementation on Thursday. It is certainly possible to include amendments in this timeframe.

Although to be fair, I would be very surprised if it passes, but I feel better for making the effort

Phil do you not feel guilty of double standards here, on one hand stopping political debate with your moderator hat on and then encouraging people to lobby the government?

I understand we are all frustrated as golfers but what you are doing is a little 'naughty'.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

Stop being obtuse, the lockdown measures are being debated and voted on before implementation on Thursday. It is certainly possible to include amendments in this timeframe.

Although to be fair, I would be very surprised if it passes, but I feel better for making the effort

Do you really think they are going to discuss golf courses in that period based on 30k golfers signing a petition? Nope

If it gets to 100k then they may discuss in Parliament which won’t be for a couple of months- the petition is pretty childish in the grand scheme of things and adds nothing to the self entitled image that some associate with golf

It’s four weeks during a rubbish weather - I’m sure we can handle it

 

[Ethan]

Phil do you not feel guilty of double standards here, on one hand stopping political debate with your moderator hat on and then encouraging people to lobby the government?

I understand we are all frustrated as golfers but what you are doing is a little 'naughty'.

Actually, I think there is a critical difference. This petition is non-partisan. Asking the Govt to give Tyrell Hatton a Knighthood for services to golf hoodies would also also non partisan but controversial.

 

[SocketRocket]

If everyone had kept to three simple guidelines we wouldn't be having a lockdown, they never so we are. If every situation was to be anyalised there would be a multitude of activities where a case could be made to exempt this or that from being banned. It's just too complicated to make this number of exemptions, people are already asking why the lockdown is being put off by four days, if it had started from this morning then the same people would be complaining that there was not enough notice. Sign the petition if you feel the need but maybe accept that desperate times need desperate measures sometimes.