Enjoy it whille it lasts

[bobmac]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[Deleted member 15344]

I think they said the same thing last year as well

The problem is that they can't forecast beyond 5 days - the westerly gulfstream winds etc are still blowing strong across the country and they aren't forecast to change anytime soon

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Apparently going to be one of the worse on records according to the Met Office and the news. I guess things will get lively on here then if no-one can get out and golf. I still don't know how they can be so sure, so far in advance so I'll wait until they are saying "go to work by bobsleigh" in the morning before panicking

 

[ColchesterFC]

That will be the same Daily Express that forecasts the same thing every year. Last year was "The Beast from the East" a massive snow storm from Russia that was meant to bring record snow fall. Forgive me if I don't believe them especially as the forecasters don't seem to be able to tell us what the weather will be like tomorrow. If they tell me it's raining I look out of the window to check.

 

[Jimaroid]

Ah yes, it's time for Daily Express Headline No. 2 in their rolling series of made-up nonsense.

1 - Nonsense Health "Breakthrough"
2 - Weather Armageddon
3 - Immigration Paranoia
4 - Maddie Conspiracy
5 - House Price CRASH OUTRAGE
6 - PENSION CRASH OUTRAGE
7 - PRINCESS DIANA OUTRAGE
8 - THE NHS ARE EVIL SCUM AND ARE RUN BY LIZARDS!!!!!
9 - Aren't the Royal Family just wonderful.
10 - THE ROYAL FAMILY ARE LIZARDS AND ARE RUINING THE NHS!!!!!!!!

Etc.

 

[gregers]

pah,was in t shirt and shorts today on the course,luvly jubly.

 

[SaintHacker]

I think they said the same thing last year as well

The problem is that they can't forecast beyond 5 days - the westerly gulfstream winds etc are still blowing strong across the country and they aren't forecast to change anytime soon

This. I picked up a passenger a while back who worked for the Met office, we were chatting about the papers and what their predictions were. He reckoned they can forecast accurately up to 7 days in advance, 14 days is pretty good, but anything more than that is pure guesswork based on computer models and previous experience.

 

[Deleted member 15344]

This. I picked up a passenger a while back who worked for the Met office, we were chatting about the papers and what their predictions were. He reckoned they can forecast accurately up to 7 days in advance, 14 days is pretty good, but anything more than that is pure guesswork based on computer models and previous experience.

When ever I used to work on the airfield radar we used work alongside the met office as we looked after some of their equipment

There is always a chance of easterly wind blowing colder weather but for the last couple years the warmer westerly wind has been stronger hence the warmer wetter winters.

Because we are an island the weather is subjected to so many changes - last week was a perfect example. At one stage it was supposed to be lovely on the Monday and Tuesday then all change

 

[Smiffy]

Lost count of the number of times I've cancelled a round of golf due to the next days "predicted" forecast and then gone on to kick myself afterwards as it has turned out to be a lovely day.
I will now try to wait until the last minute unless I am teeing off really early and travelling is involved.

 

[Farneyman]

Very mild here. Tshirt weather for the medal and absolutely zero wind/breeze which I cant remember ever before on the course.

Played one of my worst rounds of the year yesterday and my best of the year/ever in one of the windiest days...crazy game.

 

[c1973]

I can confidently predict that this winter will be a bit colder than the summer.

 

[patricks148]

Very mild here. Tshirt weather for the medal and absolutely zero wind/breeze which I cant remember ever before on the course.

Played one of my worst rounds of the year yesterday and my best of the year/ever in one of the windiest days...crazy game.

though i didn't play yesterday it was the same up here, flat calm and tee shirt weather, same again today Fabian

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Beautiful day and still in shirt sleeves. That supposed easterly wind was a zephyr and didn't impact the temperature at all. I'll take that all winter

 

[Khamelion]

The Express has to get it right eventually, the law of averages states that.

The El Nino event currently happening and at last count was still building into one of the strongest on record and is likely to last well into the spring of 2016, this has knock on effects around the global, usually wet places suffer drought, and places where drought is the norm get torrential rain.

Other effects are an increased number of Typhoons Asia-Pacific region and the possibility of colder, drier weather for the UK

[video]http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34245252[/video]

 

[Hacker Khan]

As already mentioned the forecasters are pretty decent for the next 2 to 3 days in most conditions. Sometimes though it is virtually impossible to predict with a high degree of accuracy just because the atmosphere is very complicated and also of where the UK is.

With regards to the Express yet again they are taking one possibility, extrapolating it greatly and then printing it as hard facts. They translate phrases such as 'above average chance' to mean 'it will definitely happen'. The fact is no one is certain yet of how El Nino will effect the winter weather, it is not just a simple cause and effect situation that the headline writers would like you to believe.

The forecaster they are quoting from (James Madden) is regarded in the industry as a joke, it's just an advert for his paid for forecasting services you can get from his web site. The express are in cahoots with him as he gives them some cataclysmic forecast, they print it with the intention people will then go to his web site and pay for more forecasts. Happens every year as it's always either the coldest winter, wettest or warmest summer according to The Express. It says on the forecasters web site 'We don't posses multi-million pound supercomputers, and simply have access to our own individual model that we have built from scratch' Again, trust me, you need a hell of a lot of computer processing power to analyse all the data in the atmosphere to produce a decent forecast.

This kind of thing just gives the proper forecasters a bad name. You can get sensible forecasts for free from the met office who have a lot more forecasting experience, competence and the computing power needed to get it right then you will from these jokers. If you read anything in The Express about weather that is happening more than 24 hours in the future then just ignore it.

 

[Hacker Khan]

Apparently going to be one of the worse on records according to the Met Office and the news. I guess things will get lively on here then if no-one can get out and golf. I still don't know how they can be so sure, so far in advance so I'll wait until they are saying "go to work by bobsleigh" in the morning before panicking

They aren't Homer, and the Met office would never make such a definitive statement. They just talk about a higher than average possibility, the rest of the media/news then just misinterpret that to mean it's going to be the worst on record.

 

[Jimaroid]

As already mentioned the forecasters are pretty decent for the next 2 to 3 days in most conditions. Sometimes though it is virtually impossible to predict with a high degree of accuracy just because the atmosphere is very complicated and also of where the UK is.

It's kind of worse that that because even as good as the the Met Office is the forecast is still often wrong.

What the Met Office says is something like "Our 3 day forecast today is as accurate as our 1 day forecast was in 1980". Which is fine if you assume their 1 day forecast was correct in 1980, which it often wasn't. To put it another way. "Our 3 day forecast today is just as wrong as a 1 day forecast was in 1980"

 

[Hacker Khan]

It's kind of worse that that because even as good as the the Met Office is the forecast is still often wrong.

What the Met Office says is something like "Our 3 day forecast today is as accurate as our 1 day forecast was in 1980". Which is fine if you assume their 1 day forecast was correct in 1980, which it often wasn't. To put it another way. "Our 3 day forecast today is just as wrong as a 1 day forecast was in 1980"

It depends on what you class as 'wrong'. As if you are expecting them to say exactly where and when say a cold front will be depositing precipitation 3 days in advance down to the nearest golf course then chances are they will not be 100% accurate. As so much will happen in the 3 days in the atmosphere that will influence the direction and speed of the front. If you are expecting them to say it will be sunny, showery, rainy in 3 days time then the day before you expect more accurate timings then they are very good at that.

Plus it is human nature that everyone remembers the time they do get it wrong, which they will always do now and then, but forgets the vast majority of occasions they get it correct.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

That will be the same Daily Express that forecasts the same thing every year. Last year was "The Beast from the East" a massive snow storm from Russia that was meant to bring record snow fall. Forgive me if I don't believe them especially as the forecasters don't seem to be able to tell us what the weather will be like tomorrow. If they tell me it's raining I look out of the window to check.

I was thinking - must be a Daily Express reader...

 

[Paul77]

I'll believe it when I need to bring out the Jacket of Justice with extra padding. Might need to come out of photography retirement if the weather gets bad. Got loads of shots used last year.