Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Ethan]

Mr Vs example, hmm I would have suggested doing a model for doubling cases daily, that would have looked really scary(and more stupid), like many thought his chart read. Its wrong to use science in that way, as it comes back to haunt you later and anyway the people you are trying to change probably aren't watching the slide show

Just to defend Vallance a bit, and I am not his biggest fan, what he was saying was fair comment.

He wasn’t saying this is what is going to happen. He said this is what happened before and will happen again if we don’t get our asses in gear. He will be very happy, and have done his job if that bad number doesn’t happen.

 

[Deleted member 21258]

Just to defend Vallance a bit, and I am not his biggest fan, what he was saying was fair comment.

He wasn’t saying this is what is going to happen. He said this is what happened before and will happen again if we don’t get our asses in gear. He will be very happy, and have done his job if that bad number doesn’t happen.

However life is nothing like it was back then, so seems just a lie. However don't dispute the point you make.

This guy is keeping a log and lots of other charts, if anyone is into charts and data. Think I have rambled enough, have fun

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310964651203665920

 

[Ethan]

However life is nothing like it was back then, so seems just a lie. However don't dispute the point you make.

This guy is keeping a log and lots of other charts, if anyone is into charts and data. Think I have rambled enough, have fun

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310964651203665920
View attachment 32557

Well, we did see exponential growth previously, with a doubling time of less than 7 days. The current numbers of positive tests are an underestimate because many can't get tests and therefore can't test positive.

But as I said, his intent was not to be right but to stimulate action to prove him wrong.

 

[Reemul]

They can't win though, if enough people do as they should it will fall, like we need it to and then people say he's as full of rubbish and miles out, if we do nothing an dit goes sky high and people die we get the goivernment are poor and no nothing.

Some people unfortunately cannot look at things in a nuanced manner and understand the multiple paths it will go depending on what we do, they just want black and white answers and solutions, something we won't have presently.

Any reasons being given on why it is so bad up north and not down south.

 

[Ethan]

They can't win though, if enough people do as they should it will fall, like we need it to and then people say he's as full of rubbish and miles out, if we do nothing an dit goes sky high and people die we get the goivernment are poor and no nothing.

Some people unfortunately cannot look at things in a nuanced manner and understand the multiple paths it will go depending on what we do, they just want black and white answers and solutions, something we won't have presently.

Any reasons being given on why it is so bad up north and not down south.

Back in Jan or Feb, Chris Whitty did a speech at which he said that after Covid was finished, he would either be blamed for not doing enough, or for over-reacting. He said he knew which one he preferred. It is next to impossible to get it precisely right, there are too many uncontrollable variables and externalities.

Why the North is currently doing worse? Don't know, Could be chance, a lot of places are at similar risk but random chance determines which one the bad luck drops on, and then once it does, it spreads around the region from there.

 

[Mudball]

However life is nothing like it was back then, so seems just a lie. However don't dispute the point you make.

This guy is keeping a log and lots of other charts, if anyone is into charts and data. Think I have rambled enough, have fun

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310964651203665920
View attachment 32557

i like this graph... because it says so many things...
1) Example scenairo says we will hit 50k in Oct....
2) We started taking action 18th Sept or so.... hence the blue line is trailing.

This can be used to show success as well as failure of what is happening on the ground. I think the great Trump once said that there might have been a million dead, but because of his super genius brain and hard work, ONLY 200k have died... now you can say OMG 200k died or OMG 800k were saved. I for one want to see the gap between Blue and Red keeps increasing. It shows actions are effective

 

[SaintHacker]

The R number seems to have stopped being mentioned so much lately. Last week is was thought to be around 1.5. IIRC back inMarch/April i was up around 5? Which if true given the numbers of positive cases we are now seeing that would definitely give some credence to the estimates of 100k+ cases per day back then

 

[Ethan]

The R number seems to have stopped being mentioned so much lately. Last week is was thought to be around 1.5. IIRC back inMarch/April i was up around 5? Which if true given the numbers of positive cases we are now seeing that would definitely give some credence to the estimates of 100k+ cases per day back then

The Ro (baseline) was estimated to be around 3 for Covid. It is not as transmissible as something like measles, which is very transmissible with a Ro of around 15. The Ro is based on a population with no immunity, so once the infection is underway it still shouldn't exceed that number.

 

[Crazyface]

Gotta laugh at adults collecting kids from school. Massive queue all distancing...until they get to the school gates. Then it's a big scrum of human beings crashing into each other. LOL...NOT.

Oh and not a bluddy mask in sight.

 

[AdamW]

When we was in full lockdown I was not able to go see my dying grandad in hospital (he did not have covid-19).

The phones on the ward were all broken so no one could call him either for the 6 weeks he was in.

My nan managed to get a few hours in the afternoon with him on his last day which was nice.

Absolute shambles and disgrace, still royally annoyed now about it all.

 

[KenL]

When we was in full lockdown I was not able to go see my dying grandad in hospital (he did not have covid-19).

The phones on the ward were all broken so no one could call him either for the 6 weeks he was in.

My nan managed to get a few hours in the afternoon with him on his last day which was nice.

Absolute shambles and disgrace, still royally annoyed now about it all.

No wonder. Sorry to hear about your grandad.

 

[larmen]

Gotta laugh at adults collecting kids from school. Massive queue all distancing...until they get to the school gates. Then it's a big scrum of human beings crashing into each other. LOL...NOT.

Oh and not a bluddy mask in sight.

We only started to join the collection crowd this week and at our infant school they keep us apart from the queue to when we enter to when we leave.
It's about minimising risk we don't stand there 15 minutes close to another person, and it is outside.

Of course, we are all collecting kids who spent all day together anyway.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

Really do not get this. Yes, everyone has hope but the warnings of a second wave have been there throughout with October being the prediction of when it will start. People knew that. I have every sympathy for anyone facing a job loss but, again, it was pretty clear that some industries were going to take a very long time to recover, if at all (travel, airlines, hospitality and quite a few others). I can only say it was naive for people in some industries if they have decided to ride out the furlough period without looking at a career change. I fully expected to have to do that myself but who would have expected a property boom, even if it may be short lived.

As for students, as long as they have access to lectures and tutorials then the basic premise of why they are there has been completed. Even if some of that has to be missed, with maybe 9 hours of lectures a week, it does not take much to catch up. I had to do almost an entire section of my course by listening to taped lectures due to a scheduling issue.

Not going to get in a debate about what May expectations were about September/October as that would instantly get political - however I think that we can agree that we were NOT being warned that we would quite possibly be subject to very significant measures until end March 2021.

 

[GB72]

Not going to get in a debate about what May expectations were about September/October as that would instantly get political - however I think that we can agree that we were NOT being warned that we would quite possibly be subject to very significant measures until end March 2021.

No need to be political at all, the warnings about a second wave were in the press, on the news, on no end of websites, on social media and even on here. It is perfectly possible to point out the plethora of information predicting just this at exactly this time without even mentioning a political party or a political opinion. I stand exactly by my comments. Anyone in a severely impacted industry needed to be looking for a way out. I would even go as far to say that anyone still on Furlough now should not have high expectations of returning to their position at the end of October. Sadly you are putting forward the rather worrying idea that people should throw all thoughts of common sense out the window and blindly follow political rhetoric.

 

[Ethan]

Not going to get in a debate about what May expectations were about September/October as that would instantly get political - however I think that we can agree that we were NOT being warned that we would quite possibly be subject to very significant measures until end March 2021.

Agree there was no such explicit warning, but given the onset of winter and the added complications of more indoors, flu season and other NHS pressures, it was not hard to imagine restrictions until Spring.

 

[Beezerk]

Daughter has tested positive, she feels fine and is staying strong ?

 

[Deleted member 3432]

We only started to join the collection crowd this week and at our infant school they keep us apart from the queue to when we enter to when we leave.
It's about minimising risk we don't stand there 15 minutes close to another person, and it is outside.

Of course, we are all collecting kids who spent all day together anyway.

My sons school has got it very well organised, staggered start and finish times, masks to be worn by parents however this hasn't stopped kids getting infected. Reception, years 1 and 2 are now all isolating due to kids getting infected away from school.

Fortunately I'm on my 6 days off so I can look after him while the wife is at work. Just no golf this week although it is blowing about 30 mph and raining heavily so not a good day for the links today.

 

[Hobbit]

Not going to get in a debate about what May expectations were about September/October as that would instantly get political - however I think that we can agree that we were NOT being warned that we would quite possibly be subject to very significant measures until end March 2021.

Everyone and their dog were told there'd be a second wave. Everyone was told that when the coming winter flu arrived, whether its a second or third wave of Covid along with whatever new version of flu comes around, that stringent measures would be needed. And the WHO has been giving out global warnings of what was coming, and what the responses should be.

The NHS was told in May to gear up for September, and how the public should behave if it wished to avoid tougher measures.

No we cannot agree we were NOT being warned. Methinks you're being deliberately obtuse.

 

[oxymoron]

Not going to get in a debate about what May expectations were about September/October as that would instantly get political - however I think that we can agree that we were NOT being warned that we would quite possibly be subject to very significant measures until end March 2021.

This is a very fluid, rapidly changing event and i do not think anyone knew what was going to happen as no one has the experience of such an epidemic so i think we should not get hung up on wether we were warned , it looked to me like winter was always going to be a challenging time after such an assault on the NHS so i cannot see why anyone else would not see the oncoming wave of infections or at the least a rise, when lockdown was eased
Releasing lockdown combined with returns to work,school and uni were always going to be a risk but we could all help to reduce it if we follow the guidelines and apply common sense , i do not particularly like wearing a mask, but if it reduces my chances of getting\passing Covid i will comply ,just wish more would do the same we seem to have a core of people that have a sod you i am ok attitude and this is dangerous.

 

[Crazyface]

We only started to join the collection crowd this week and at our infant school they keep us apart from the queue to when we enter to when we leave.
It's about minimising risk we don't stand there 15 minutes close to another person, and it is outside.

Of course, we are all collecting kids who spent all day together anyway.

The kids I saw were all squashed together on the other side of the gate waiting to be collected. Looking forward to the next spike to be announced in Stoke.