Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

With my mathematical modelling hat on my feeling is that, as coronavirus will become endemic within the UK population, we have to look at what is to be achieved through application of different measures and the main objective is I suggest not about preventing the virus becoming endemic in the population.

We will all catch it - if not now then in the next year or two. The important thing is to enable the NHS to cope with those seriously ill as a result of being infected and to build up resistance in the population so that the next outbreak can be controlled, with hopefully also a vaccine available.

So my instinct is that in this dynamic situation is that the initial position (numbers infected) and velocity (speed of growth) are not so important as the acceleration (rate of growth) that WILL happen in the next few weeks. Current numbers are growing - but apparently not yet in an strongly exponential way - and the NHS can cope. Those who do not become serious will develop immunity - and in itself that is valuable for the future and coming out the back end of this outbreak. What is important I think is to dampen the acceleration when that is detected so that it is not exponential. In situations where growth is relatively steady - measures to dampen acceleration might not be very effective. So don't apply them until they are effective - else they might be less effective than they otherwise might be. Meanwhile manage the growth, treat the seriously affected, get the measures ready for the acceleration and apply the measures immediately the start of the acceleration is detected. And that point will be obvious as numbers reporting to the NHS with a more serious condition grow.

As an aside - I have heard from two separate sources - in different parts of the country - that their respective school head teachers have been advised that they are likely to be asked to shut school gates next Friday. I don't think parents have been advised. This timing would be consistent with an acceleration predicted to be starting very soon after.

But this is just my feeling.
 
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Orikoru said:
I contacted Ryanair live chat support, they said it will mostly likely be cancelled in the next two days and I should watch out for the email confirmation. That's that then.

This really has been the worst year on record I think.
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Proper sucks that mate. We've got a holiday booked, flying out to Dominican Republic next Saturday, just praying we can still go, mega in need of a holiday! Optimistic as we're in this "delay" phase and the Dominican has very few cases at the minute (<10) but who knows what's going to happen over the next week.
 
bobmac said:
I know it's just a few fanatics.
But it is out there and because the pastor/priest/rabbi/Muhaddith says something, there are always those who will belive it's true.
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We can say the same about any issue...as we have seen over the last few years in politics...so please let's just not go there with this religious extremist nonsense.
 
Norfolk, D&G and Highlands are the only non affected areas, for once poor road/rail air structure works to their advantage.
I live near the D&G border, perhaps go south for my shopping in future.:whistle:
 
bluewolf said:
My wife is also a Nurse, but working in the Community. She has already had several E Mails from the Trust informing her that there may be emergency measures that mean she will have to go back to Ward work. Bearing in mind she hasn't done any Ward work for over a decade, she's rightly concerned that this will expose her to situations she isn't experienced enough to deal with.
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That's the emergency services for you, during the bombings/riots/bridge attacks everyone got out - just the way it is.
 
bobmac said:
I know it's just a few fanatics.
But it is out there and because the pastor/priest/rabbi/Muhaddith says something, there are always those who will belive it's true.
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And some will use any subject to preach their dislike of people with faith. There are morons in all walks of life and equally as many are posting this virus was created because of 5G, that it was designed by America to attack Iran as biological warfare etc.

This simply is the world we live in that people seek to blame things they don't understand. The religious fanatics or other idiots listed above should be ignored and focus should be on working as a collective to reduce the impact not finger pointing. Plus in a time like this of people with genuine faith want to say a little prayer to help them through a worrying time then why not, we could all use a little positivity right now.
 
Wolf said:
And some will use any subject to preach their dislike of people with faith. There are morons in all walks of life and equally as many are posting this virus was created because of 5G, that it was designed by America to attack Iran as biological warfare etc.

This simply is the world we live in that people seek to blame things they don't understand. The religious fanatics or other idiots listed above should be ignored and focus should be on working as a collective to reduce the impact not finger pointing. Plus in a time like this of people with genuine faith want to say a little prayer to help them through a worrying time then why not, we could all use a little positivity right now.
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I'm sorry, I've been told I can't discuss who's to blame any more
 
I wonder how this is all going to effect the economy as a whole once it is all over, and how it will impact on peoples jobs individually?

Of course, public health is paramount. But, if the economy goes into freefall, what will happen to the nations health then?

I'd have thought incredibly strict measures could have been suggested to protect the most vulnerable in our society from this disease, but the rest of us told to carry on as normal (if we are all going to get it anyway, and we are unlikely to need hospital treatment). It does make me wonder if there is more to this disease than meets the eye. On one hand, it appears to be much much worse than the flu. On the other hand, any celebrity we hear that has contracted it seems to be "doing just fine in self isolation".
 
OK now I know it's really serious - even the terrorists are taking precautions ..

ISIS leaflet gives 'religious directives' on tackling coronavirus for terrorists
Includes tips such as washing hands before eating and staying away from sick
A travel ban and covering mouth when coughing is also advised
Jihadists told 'put your faith in God and seek refuge in him'
 
Interesting to correlate the performance of the stock markets with the air quality in china. Wonder if this will cause us to slightly reassess societies KPIs?
 
Swango1980 said:
I wonder how this is all going to effect the economy as a whole once it is all over, and how it will impact on peoples jobs individually?

Of course, public health is paramount. But, if the economy goes into freefall, what will happen to the nations health then?

I'd have thought incredibly strict measures could have been suggested to protect the most vulnerable in our society from this disease, but the rest of us told to carry on as normal (if we are all going to get it anyway, and we are unlikely to need hospital treatment). It does make me wonder if there is more to this disease than meets the eye. On one hand, it appears to be much much worse than the flu. On the other hand, any celebrity we hear that has contracted it seems to be "doing just fine in self isolation".
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I think it's the disease meeting your lungs and airways that you need to worry about.
 
And on crowds.

I look at a crowd as a network. The infected individual will only potentially infect those in immediate proximity - iwithin 2m - for 15minutes continuously, and we are told that is on average 2-3. But these 2-3 infected individuals do not then immediately pass on the infection to those in similar proximity. This is not like the zombie films when one person bitten is immediately a zombie and can bite it's neighbour.

So where we are today I am not quite sure why what is currently only likely to be a handful of infected individuals in any crowd - even such as a football crowd - is going to make a significant impact to the outcome we desire - the NHS coping with what will become an endemic viral infection. As per my previous post an individual in a crowd they will only infect others at a steady 'speed' say 3/infected individual/event. And across the country in any infection network there are not that many events of 500+ size to be held in the coming couple of weeks, and these additional few infected individuals coming out of any one event do not increase the local network starting position significantly.

And with schools - don't close schools too early - and send children home to be looked after by their grandparents - when an infected child will build up a resistance, but will transfer the virus to a much more vulnerable and at risk grandparent.
 
Dan2501 said:
Proper sucks that mate. We've got a holiday booked, flying out to Dominican Republic next Saturday, just praying we can still go, mega in need of a holiday! Optimistic as we're in this "delay" phase and the Dominican has very few cases at the minute (<10) but who knows what's going to happen over the next week.
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Hope you're ok, Dominican was lovely, we went there last year for a very late (two years late) honeymoon. (y)
 
SwingsitlikeHogan said:
As a little light-hearted aside - there will be a group of very knowledgeable board game geek pandemic control experts out there - as one of the most popular board games of the last ten years is Pandemic. Players each take the role of one of various experts and work collaboratively to control a number of virus pandemic outbreaks. What irony.

https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/30549/pandemic
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Played this a while back with friends. Managed to wipe out most of the worlds population! I'm afraid we were very, very drunk ;)
 
And sure enough across the Pond many with Health Insurance are complaining that their government is promising that no-one will have to pay to be assessed or tested for coronavirus - the complaint is going up - Why should those with no Health Insurance get for free what those with Health Insurance have paid for through their insurance premiums. And that's the route relying on privatised Health Insurance can take us - if we let it.

Love the NHS - One for All and All for One
 
I do the school run daily. It is amazing how many kids are brought to school and colllcted by their grandparents. It is massive. My kids are collected 2 days a week by grand parents the other 3 by my wife and I.

Luckily my wife is a teacher so if schools close she is looking after them as well. But i know so many people who struggle through the school holidays let alone any additional time and most is covered by grandparents the most at risk group.

The government really will need to support all small and medium businesses to allow them to survive when people cannot work for whatever reason. My job is in insurance and I can work from home no problem as can the wife but so many people will not have this option and they will need it.

Scary times ahead i'm afraid
 
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