Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Swinglowandslow said:
Hmmm- then what is the difference between flu and Covid. As a nation we have flu with us, and have had for many years- and I have always understood it didn't kill many because of herd immunity. Because the overwhelming majority have had it at some time in their life.
Contrast to the proverbial Amazon tribe who have never seen flu. When they get it , it virtually wipes them all out.
so, is that thinking wrong,now?
How can some scientists believe there is herd immunity and some believe there isn't? Surely the evidence is there , one way or another.
As for measles and chicken pox. Are they mild illnesses which hardly ever kill, or would they too devastate our Amazon tribe? If they would, then to my mind, that proves herd immunity exists.
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As Ethan had said, it seems there is such a thing.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-health-ministers-incorrect-herd-immunity-claims

So I'm a bit disappointed to see a health minister at the current time not quite grasping the basic science on health.
 
Swinglowandslow said:
Hmmm- then what is the difference between flu and Covid. As a nation we have flu with us, and have had for many years- and I have always understood it didn't kill many because of herd immunity. Because the overwhelming majority have had it at some time in their life.
Contrast to the proverbial Amazon tribe who have never seen flu. When they get it , it virtually wipes them all out.
so, is that thinking wrong,now?
How can some scientists believe there is herd immunity and some believe there isn't? Surely the evidence is there , one way or another.
As for measles and chicken pox. Are they mild illnesses which hardly ever kill, or would they too devastate our Amazon tribe? If they would, then to my mind, that proves herd immunity exists.
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Herd immunity is essentially a mathematical construct, in which estimates about the infectivity, including the R, lead to an idea about the number of immune people in the population needed to stop an infection propagating. So it isn't really a matter of whether it exists or not, more whether it is applicable to this ceases or that one. That number is 1/1-R, so if R is 3 (as it is at baseline for Covid), then approx 66% of the population needed to be immune. For measles where R is 12-15, over 90% needs to be immune. The basic idea is that the more infectious something is, the fewer vulnerable people it needs to keep going.

Herd immunity can be achieved, if it is possible to do so, through a mixture of vaccination or natural infection. There are few good examples where the official policy was to allow natural infection, so it is usually achieved by mass vaccination programmes.. It also presumes that infection confers immunity, and although that is likely with Covid, at least for a period of time, it is not certain. Finally, herd immunity does not remove the risk to shielded people, who may still get infected.

Measles is not a mild disease. It affects the brain and spinal cord, hence the well known sensitivity to light, and can cause deafness or a devastating neurological disease called sub-acute sclerosing panencephalitis, which is every bit as bad as the name suggests.
 
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Hacker Khan said:
As Ethan had said, it seems there is such a thing.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-health-ministers-incorrect-herd-immunity-claims

So I'm a bit disappointed to see a health minister at the current time not quite grasping the basic science on health.
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Certainly someone across the pond seems to believe in it as it appears to have become federal policy...

Not sure I go for it as a strategy for today - but as we must and will eventually get there supported by vaccination - surely a bit like draining a reservoir perhaps - let the water out slowly and in a controlled manner rather than just blow up the dam.
 
This morning's announcements require very short notice changes to our plans for this weekend to remain compliant - not ideal but we can do that as we must...very difficult times...
 
So that's us into Tier 2........The areas to go into high alert restrictions this weekend are:
  • Elmbridge in Surrey
Puts pay to seeing the folks over half term. I don't mind being upped a tier if that's what helps however the main concern is actually coming out of them given there are other areas who have been in 'special measures' for quite some time, have had the levels come down yet are still in them.
 
road2ruin said:
So that's us into Tier 2........The areas to go into high alert restrictions this weekend are:
  • Elmbridge in Surrey
Puts pay to seeing the folks over half term. I don't mind being upped a tier if that's what helps however the main concern is actually coming out of them given there are other areas who have been in 'special measures' for quite some time, have had the levels come down yet are still in them.
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Unfortunately there didn't seem to be much opportunity earlier today for MPs, mayors etc of towns, cities and areas going from Tier 1 into Tier 2 to question the Health Minister (Helen Whately) on the call that was held. Typically they wanted to know whether the Tier2 restrictions were considered by the minister to be sufficient to constrain spread of the infection, and what would enable a Tier 2 area to move (back) to Tier 1. I fear neither is known.

I've heard the view expressed that if going from Tier 1 to Tier 2 is actually only likely to be a stepping stone to Tier 3 - then perhaps it would be as well going straight to a 2-3 week circuit break - because at least an end date would be known for a short CB.
 
Yep, lets go for a 2 week shut down, then back to tier1 for 2 or 3 weeks then up to tier 2 then tier 3, then maybe a shutdown at Xmas and away we go. R back to 0.5
 
There is no such thing as 'herd immunity'. The infections and thus deaths continue, people are not immune and the since UK's population are not in isolation from other 'herds' so new sources will keep the infection circulating.

Only by reducing each person's susceptibility or exposure to COVID will it slowly disperse: that just leaves a vaccine and/or reducing person to person interaction as the way forward.
 
London tier 2 from Saturday

So childcare bubble has been set up with parents house

Mother in law forms a support bubble with us

All other visitors cancelled until further notice

Shame but having my sister over tomorrow

Had my best friend round yest to celebrate her 30th birthday so least they got to see the kids until it starts again
 
drdel said:
There is no such thing as 'herd immunity'. The infections and thus deaths continue, people are not immune and the since UK's population are not in isolation from other 'herds' so new sources will keep the infection circulating.

Only by reducing each person's susceptibility or exposure to COVID will it slowly disperse: that just leaves a vaccine and/or reducing person to person interaction as the way forward.
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Well, there is, but it isn't what people think it is. It is simply a rate of immunity that suffocates propagation of the infection. You are correct that infections and deaths continue, and this will be especially true for the shielded who re-emerge, thus the 'shield the vulnerable and get herd immunity going along the young' strategy does not work. .

I agree that vaccine or avoid getting infected are the only safe ways forward.
 
The problem is the media whipped the population into such a panic back in the spring, new cases and death rates are old news and won't have the same effect unless it's 2,000 deaths a day. Which as a result will lead to many more ignoring these restrictions.
 
Ethan said:
Well, there is, but it isn't what people think it is. It is simply a rate of immunity that suffocates propagation of the infection. You are correct that infections and deaths continue, and this will be especially true for the shielded who re-emerge, thus the 'shield the vulnerable and get herd immunity going along the young' strategy does not work. .

I agree that vaccine or avoid getting infected are the only safe ways forward.
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Yup. I think perhaps part of the problem is the media seem to tell the 'story' as if 'herd immunity' is a 'cure'/solution
 
DRW said:
Been seeing a lot about pre covid and what the WHO recommended for such outbreaks, interesting read, makes you kind of wonder why we have moved away so massively from the original science/recommendations/Not recommended behind this. Going to be interesting reading history in years to come and lessons learnt. Link of document/chart

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream...Y94IgGaHyxNKOln0JWG6K5OGZubFtwWTKH12-Vt7R47cM

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The paper is specifically for Influenza. Covid is a different virus isn’t it?

I’d expect NPI recommendations to differ by virus.

Maybe you‘re comparing apples and oranges? Though I’m no expert :)
 
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