Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

Foxholer

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Ethan

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Those figures are of absolutely no use if trying to determine whether the overall rate is rising or not! The (estimated) populations of each LA would need to be known to actually draw any conclusion from them. Presumably it IS known by whoever provides the stats.

Those are per capita case rates, per 100k population, so are comparable.
 

Foxholer

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i didn't register mine, nor the wife, nor the myriad of friends i know who have had it over the past couple of months. As mentioned, the figures are now so poor and clearly we have no clue how accurate. What we do know is the 10% to 15% of the population that are positive is clearly a meaningful underestimation.
And, if so, is quite possibly/likely the reason for the discrepancy between England and Scotland figures!
However, that 10-15% number bears no relation to the ONS value of 6.93% - a figure gathered by 'random selection', so unaffected by whether or not infection is registered! The ONS numbers ARE rising though.
Where exactly did you actually get that '10-15%' number from? Or did you simply make it up!
 
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Foxholer

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OK, well in conventional epidemiology, the per capita rate is pretty important and the basis for most comparisons. In your world, not so much.
It's fine if you are simply comparing - say Reading with Bracknell Forest - or even, as WAS useful, the increase or decrease in each LA. But when you want/need to aggregate the figures, say for whole of Berkshire, you have to go back to the base stats - either by using the original numbers gathered, or by back-calculating them.
I know, for example, that Bracknell Forest LA's population is significantly less than, say, Windsor and Maidenhead's - I used to live in Winkfield Row.
And to confirm..
How would you find an overall per capita rate of, say, a per capita rate from New Zealand (Population 5M) and one from England (Population 56M). But they could be compared!
FWIW. Much of my education/training and early career was in Statistics!
 

Ethan

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It's fine if you are simply comparing - say Reading with Bracknell Forest - or even, as WAS useful, the increase or decrease in each LA. But when you want/need to aggregate the figures, say for whole of Berkshire, you have to go back to the base stats - either by using the original numbers gathered, or by back-calculating them.
I know, for example, that Bracknell Forest LA's population is significantly less than, say, Windsor and Maidenhead's - I used to live in Winkfield Row.
And to confirm..
How would you find an overall per capita rate of, say, a per capita rate from New Zealand (Population 5M) and one from England (Population 56M). But they could be compared!

Well, the rate data will have absolute numbers to back it up and that can be aggregated in whatever way you like.

As discussed many times here, I see no great problem comparing NZ with UK, despite the population difference. The larger population of the UK is illusory, and is combining numbers from the Isle of Skye with numbers from Tower Hamlets. You may as well thrown in numbers from the Moon. The UK is a composite of differing and to some extent separate populations with differing factors applying to them.
 

patricks148

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I'm not trying to be difficult, I just find it hard to follow the logic. Is it your opinion that the big infection increase in Scotland is due to people having restrictions like masks or is it due to them not wearing them.
Was in tesco the other night on the way to work, was speaking to a girl who used to work for me at the airport for about 20 mins, pretty much every person who went past under 30 was not wearing a mask. Went into M&S in town today, same scenario in the indoor shopping centre. From what a read today most of the infections up here anyway are younger people. I think two schools have had to close infection rates.
 

drdel

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I see we've come full circle again and are back to arguing 'comparability of stats'.

For Joe Public isn't it enough to know whether its basically rising or falling? - anything else needs careful analysis.
 

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Well, the rate data will have absolute numbers to back it up and that can be aggregated in whatever way you like.
...
I totally agree. But, as I posted, they are useless 'as is'!
As discussed many times here, I see no great problem comparing NZ with UK, despite the population difference....
Again, I agree. 'Comparing' is fine. But, as you state/agree, absolute/raw numbers are required for certain comparisons - unless the populations (the statistical term) were equal. Those were missing from the individual LA stats. Thus my 'are useless' comment. Of course, they would not have been 'useless' had they all been increasing, or all decreasing.
 
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Foxholer

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For Joe Public isn't it enough to know whether its basically rising or falling? - anything else needs careful analysis.
Agreed!
The old saying about there being 3 kinds of lies applies too!
I keep going back to a Sir Rob Muldoon statement that he tried to put across as positive - along the lines of..The rate of increase of inflation is falling! He was ousted shortly afterwards!
 
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Ethan

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I see we've come full circle again and are back to arguing 'comparability of stats'.

For Joe Public isn't it enough to know whether its basically rising or falling? - anything else needs careful analysis.

Yes, if you know there is a little or a lot about, and it is rising or falling, that is enough information for most people, and too much for some!
 

drdel

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Yes, if you know there is a little or a lot about, and it is rising or falling, that is enough information for most people, and too much for some!
Yes, if you know there is a little or a lot about, and it is rising or falling, that is enough information for most people, and too much for some!

I agree; especially given many people do not know the difference between mean, median and mode !!
 

drdel

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That's a rather aloof attitude. Most people are more inclined to be not interested rather than not understanding.

You're quite possibly right, 'Aloof' OK I reckon a few decades lecturing on analytics at p/grad level at Uni's in UK, EU and States give me justification for moaning about the state of knowledge of quantitative methods in those same countries among much of the businesses managers
 
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