Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[drdel]

There were reports of a 33% rate of incidental Covid, which was higher than in early December. But in early December, there were a lot fewer patients in hospital with or because of Covid, so there are two separate factors changing. I think that we could see that number change further as the demographics of Omicron cases change, with more older and middle aged people getting it.

I think there is too much inference being applied to this issue.

And I suspect if you gathered a bunch of people at random you'd probably hit the 30% prevelance : especially if you excluded the vaccinated.

 

[Ethan]

And I suspect if you gathered a bunch of people at random you'd probably hit the 30% prevelance : especially if you excluded the vaccinated.

Indeed. Just added a graphic to my post which shows the trend.

 

[PhilTheFragger]

The trend in cases is undoubtedly upwards, but how many?
Reported LFT tests and confirmed PCR tests give figures, but how many LFT ‘s are going unreported, with people just isolating or not isolating at all?

Now with the requirement to follow up a positive LFT with a PCR has been dropped for asymptomatic folk, how can they be sure the numbers are accurate?

 

[Ethan]

The trend in cases is undoubtedly upwards, but how many?
Reported LFT tests and confirmed PCR tests give figures, but how many LFT ‘s are going unreported, with people just isolating or not isolating at all?

Now with the requirement to follow up a positive LFT with a PCR has been dropped for asymptomatic folk, how can they be sure the numbers are accurate?

They can't, but they weren't really all that informative before either. Tests numbers are usually only useful when you understand the population tested - symptomatic, contacts of the symptomatic or random people undergoing routine testing. If you change the population being tested, say add in an occupational group of routine testing, the numbers lose meaning. Also, if the test positive rate is changing in a relatively stable testing group, that suggests the true rate is rising faster than the test positive rate. And if you run out of tests, they lose every more.

 

[bobmac]

Yet still a good number who I have spoken with and who would attend my event on the 22nd are OK for it to go ahead…saying we have to get back to normal at some point (as I agree that we must - whatever that normal might be), and so I worry that I am over-reacting.

How on earth can you over-react to a contagious air borne global virus that has killed the same number of people living in Scotland

 

[DanFST]

How on earth can you over-react to a contagious air borne global virus that has killed the same number of people living in Scotland

Because we have invested billions to study the disease and now have vaccines? Statistically you are WAY more likely to die from something else as covid makes up less then 5% of deaths per day.

 

[Foxholer]

Yet still a good number who I have spoken with and who would attend my event on the 22nd are OK for it to go ahead…saying we have to get back to normal at some point (as I agree that we must - whatever that normal might be), and so I worry that I am over-reacting.

Don't! You aren't!

 

[HomerJSimpson]

How on earth can you over-react to a contagious air borne global virus that has killed the same number of people living in Scotland

Good point well made sir. People need to be pragmatic and while it would be nice to get back to "normal" until things improve, especially with infection rates for Omicrom then the risk of large infections vs a nice night out is a no brainer

 

[Foxholer]

Because we have invested billions to study the disease and now have vaccines? Statistically you are WAY more likely to die from something else as covid makes up less then 5% of deaths per day.

No reason to risk adding to the 1300+ daily deaths though!

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

I think that you are in an a very difficult position. There are, no doubt, many people who feel that they need to get on with things and would go to your event but they are not the ones who have to carry the burden if there is a serious outbreak or serious illness. To attend is conscience free, to organise is not.

The truth is any decision to go ahead with the event with or without my support is not actually mine - though my absence will make much less of a Burns event. Now that might not matter, and as a dinner dance it can easily go ahead…

The feedback I am getting this afternoon suggests that the vast majority want it to go ahead…maybe I’ll take the approach that I limit my exposure in the evening to the Burns bit in the middle. Now that’s about 30mins of the whole…so in fact equivalent to me going to the supermarket - and with a seated and pretty passive ‘audience’ maybe that will be an acceptable level of risk.

Bloody difficult making common sense decisions…when my CS might not align with that of others. One minute my CS says this, and next it says that. Damn you covid…

 

[Ethan]

Because we have invested billions to study the disease and now have vaccines? Statistically you are WAY more likely to die from something else as covid makes up less then 5% of deaths per day.

Not all those causes of death are equally preventable, though.

And it isn’t just about deaths. Gonorrhoea doesn’t kill many people, but you’d probably prefer not to get it.

 

[D-S]

No reason to risk adding to the 13000+ daily deaths though!

Just for some context, global daily population growth is over 200,000.
https://www.theworldcounts.com/chal...-the-planet/world-population-clock-live/story

 

[DanFST]

Not all those causes of death are equally preventable, though.

And it isn’t just about deaths. Gonorrhoea doesn’t kill many people, but you’d probably prefer not to get it.

Totally true, tho I wonder how much lifestyle and diet accounts for heart disease deaths (which I think is the second biggest killer? But you'll know more than me!) And i'd much rather not have Gonorrhoea! But I can wear a raincoat when canoodling. That's an acceptable and reasonable sacrifice to minimise risk to myself. Living in London there was absolutely no way I couldn't be infected with covid after the horse bolted in Feb/March.

With the investment in vaccines, Omicron is looking like a cold for 99.9% (made up number, but sure it's something similar) of people. With retail footfall down 86% compared to the 2019 in the week leading up to Christmas, is it worth it?

 

[Foxholer]

Just for some context, global daily population growth is over 200,000.
https://www.theworldcounts.com/chal...-the-planet/world-population-clock-live/story

99% irrelevant to this discussion.!

 

[Jamesbrown]

Not all those causes of death are equally preventable, though.

And it isn’t just about deaths. Gonorrhoea doesn’t kill many people, but you’d probably prefer not to get it.

Badge of honour clap is, try something else! ?

 

[D-S]

99% irrelevant to this discussion.!

I obviously disagree, if a figure referring to the whole world of just under 5 million deaths a year (13,000 per day) is mentioned I think it useful to know as well that Global population growth is over 80 million per year. You may only find this 1% relevant, that is your prerogative, I however find it gives context.

 

[Foxholer]

I obviously disagree, if a figure referring to the whole world of just under 5 million deaths a year (13,000 per day) is mentioned I think it useful to know as well that Global population growth is over 80 million per year. You may only find this 1% relevant, that is your prerogative, I however find it gives context.

Sorry, let's restart! Can't remember where I got 13000/day from, but it's not correct. 1400/day for UK is closer! And that's why I found your 'whole world' comment peculiar/irrelevant.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

The truth is any decision to go ahead with the event with or without my support is not actually mine - though my absence will make much less of a Burns event. Now that might not matter, and as a dinner dance it can easily go ahead…

The feedback I am getting this afternoon suggests that the vast majority want it to go ahead…maybe I’ll take the approach that I limit my exposure in the evening to the Burns bit in the middle. Now that’s about 30mins of the whole…so in fact equivalent to me going to the supermarket - and with a seated and pretty passive ‘audience’ maybe that will be an acceptable level of risk.

Bloody difficult making common sense decisions…when my CS might not align with that of others. One minute my CS says this, and next it says that. Damn you covid…

That's 30 minutes in an enclosed venue full of expelled air from all who have been in it for hours. Laughing , talking animatedly, etc. Not the same as a supermarket.
You are not indispensable ?. My view? -- be safe.

 

[D-S]

Sorry, let's restart! Can't remember where I got 13000/day from, but it's not correct. 1400/day for UK is closer! And that's why I found your 'whole world' comment peculiar/irrelevant.

I assumed your 13,000 per day was a global number, sorry.
If the pandemic has been going on for about 22 months or 670 days and UK COVID deaths over this period are somewhere over 140k then average daily deaths are over 210. That is a higher figure than I would of guessed. It goes to show how hard this thing hit especially in 2020.

 

[Foxholer]

I assumed your 13,000 per day was a global number, sorry.
...

Yeah, figured that. My fault!

...
If the pandemic has been going on for about 22 months or 670 days and UK COVID deaths over this period are somewhere over 140k then average daily deaths are over 210. That is a higher figure than I would of guessed. It goes to show how hard this thing hit especially in 2020.

Yep, 2 big humps for several months. See 'Daily Deaths' for this chart https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ 2021 was the bad one, even with vax. 2020 was scarier as vax was scarce and infrastructure was still being set up.