Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Foxholer]

...
I do not give money to the Barclay brothers, so I did not see who the 'expert' was or the basis for their breezy optimism.

I've a far less 'personal' approach to Newspapers - possibly because of my different starting environment.
Torygraph used to be my paper of choice (cf SWMBO's Daily Wail) but attitude seems to have moved more obviously (even) further right, soon the rare occasions (like Waitrose offers) I acquire a paper, it's likely to be The Times. Owner possibly worse, but articles less obviously simply political statements!

 

[Lord Tyrion]

My kids are 19 and 21. They went onto the booking site this morning, no fuss, boosters booked for this coming Sunday, in the town where we live at a time which is convenient for them. Happy days.

 

[Ethan]

Obviously there are 'experts' and experts, but feel free to have a look if you want to comment. And there has been plenty of panic stories of 70k deaths predicted from the Tropical something institute in London.

I did look but the paywall wouldn't allow me to see the expert or their theory, and I wasn't about to subscribe to the Torygraph to see more

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is one of the leading public health and epidemiology institutions on the planet. If their forecasts have resulted in changes which prevented the worst cases coming true, they will be delighted with the job they have done. They don't do panic stories.

Edit: Torygraph story also on MSN. Robert Dingwall, Prof of Social Sciences in Nottingham. So he is not a scientist at all. Feel free to go to him for medical advice, but I won't, thanks.

I did find another story in the Torygraph today which was free to view, which casts a different picture from the headline of the other: Torygraph panic story?

 

[Foxholer]

Obviously there are 'experts' and experts, but feel free to have a look if you want to comment. And there has been plenty of panic stories of 70k deaths predicted from the Tropical something institute in London.

LSHTM is world renowned, if low key, institution.
Typically, the 'panic stories', at least your post about, only mention the most pessimestic/'as many as' stats. There was also a 'most optimistic'/as few as stat, but that seems to have been either buried in the (newspaper etc) article body or simply ignored. But that's the way (most/many) newspapers work!

 

[PNWokingham]

I did look but the paywall wouldn't allow me to see the expert or their theory, and I wasn't about to subscribe to the Torygraph to see more

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is one of the leading public health and epidemiology institutions on the planet. If their forecasts have resulted in changes which prevented the worst cases coming true, they will be delighted with the job they have done. They don't do panic stories.

Edit: Torygraph story also on MSN. Robert Dingwall, Prof of Social Sciences in Nottingham. So he is not a scientist at all. Feel free to go to him for medical advice, but I won't, thanks.

I did find another story in the Torygraph today which was free to view, which casts a different picture from the headline of the other: Torygraph panic story?

My sense and hope is that these "scare stories" from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Professor Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) are much less likely to occur. Lots of anecdotal evidence and the real-world study in South Africa pointing to milder symptoms. And that the scare stories are not factoring any of this in - and the fact that the large majority are vaccinated and probably a large portion have also had covid. So we need to use far different assumptions on hospitalisations and deaths than what occured in the first two waves. Others have said that Omicron could be a blessing if indeed it is much more infectious and milder as it will speed up herd immunity and move this to an endemic infection. Excess deaths is a better guage now than infections. I am not sure we need these new restrictions - albeit they are currebntly not very onerous - Scotland have kept masks and from what i have heard theey have seen a similar trend to England - and Wee Jimmy has added extra restrictions there and Borris the Clown is under pressure to do more here. Dr Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency, warned Omicron posed the 'biggest threat' yet. Where is the evidence of this given the vaccine rollout, natural immunity, booster campaign etc.

 

[D-S]

656k booster doses given in the UK yesterday, a healthy rate.

 

[Ethan]

My sense and hope is that these "scare stories" from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Professor Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) are much less likely to occur. Lots of anecdotal evidence and the real-world study in South Africa pointing to milder symptoms. And that the scare stories are not factoring any of this in - and the fact that the large majority are vaccinated and probably a large portion have also had covid. So we need to use far different assumptions on hospitalisations and deaths than what occured in the first two waves. Others have said that Omicron could be a blessing if indeed it is much more infectious and milder as it will speed up herd immunity and move this to an endemic infection. Excess deaths is a better guage now than infections. I am not sure we need these new restrictions - albeit they are currebntly not very onerous - Scotland have kept masks and from what i have heard theey have seen a similar trend to England - and Wee Jimmy has added extra restrictions there and Borris the Clown is under pressure to do more here. Dr Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency, warned Omicron posed the 'biggest threat' yet. Where is the evidence of this given the vaccine rollout, natural immunity, booster campaign etc.

Nobody disagrees that so far Omicron appears to have milder symptoms than Delta. However, milder initial symptoms do not necessarily correlate with fewer long term problems, and even a milder Omicron still risks causing a major problem because of its much greater transmissibility. The forecasts do make different assumptions for hospitalisation and death, as well as vaccination rates and residual immunity. People who say 'Its just a flu' seem to have forgotten that the flu puts a lot of people in hospital every year.

The scientific assessments of this risk (known by you as "scare stories") need to be conservative because if we realise that Omicron isn't quite the gentle ticket on the tonsils that some think it is, it will be a bit too late to react appropriately. Anecdotal evidence is not a basis for policy decisions.

As for the restrictions, they will get more strict. It is only a matter of time, but whatever they are they will be too late to make a major difference.

 

[Beezerk]

Just had my Pfizer booster, very efficient at the centre I went to.

 

[drdel]

Nobody disagrees that so far Omicron appears to have milder symptoms than Delta. However, milder initial symptoms do not necessarily correlate with fewer long term problems, and even a milder Omicron still risks causing a major problem because of its much greater transmissibility. The forecasts do make different assumptions for hospitalisation and death, as well as vaccination rates and residual immunity. People who say 'Its just a flu' seem to have forgotten that the flu puts a lot of people in hospital every year.

The scientific assessments of this risk (known by you as "scare stories") need to be conservative because if we realise that Omicron isn't quite the gentle ticket on the tonsils that some think it is, it will be a bit too late to react appropriately. Anecdotal evidence is not a basis for policy decisions.

As for the restrictions, they will get more strict. It is only a matter of time, but whatever they are they will be too late to make a major difference.

I think we're focusing too much just on the severity of the illness on the individual. The issues, as I see it, is that mass infections will potentially impact the workforce across society. The consequential loss of capacity will not just be confined to Health but in all businesses. Grocery, power, refuse, education etc, etc: all predominantly use a Lean Supply Chain philosophy which is fine in stable conditions but it only takes a relatively small impact to screw the 'whole' chain.

That is why I think Government is employing a 'heavy hand'.

 

[Pants]

Typically, the 'panic stories', at least your post about, only mention the most pessimestic /'as many as' stats. There was also a 'most optimistic'/as few as stat, but that seems to have been either buried in the (newspaper etc) article body or simply ignored. But that's the way (most/many) newspapers work!

Ffs Foxy. Please post in the English version of English. I appreciate that you were taught the language in another country but if you are unable to say what you want to say without having to use excessive punctuation, either get further lessons in English or don't bother. Your posts are sometimes almost unreadable.

 

[SocketRocket]

I think we're focusing too much just on the severity of the illness on the individual. The issues, as I see it, is that mass infections will potentially impact the workforce across society. The consequential loss of capacity will not just be confined to Health but in all businesses. Grocery, power, refuse, education etc, etc: all predominantly use a Lean Supply Chain philosophy which is fine in stable conditions but it only takes a relatively small impact to screw the 'whole' chain.

That is why I think Government is employing a 'heavy hand'.

I guess it depends how many have it at a particular workplace at one time. Its not unlike having a week off on holiday for many (in terms of time off work not r&r) and after their isolation they're back at work again.

 

[Ethan]

I think we're focusing too much just on the severity of the illness on the individual. The issues, as I see it, is that mass infections will potentially impact the workforce across society. The consequential loss of capacity will not just be confined to Health but in all businesses. Grocery, power, refuse, education etc, etc: all predominantly use a Lean Supply Chain philosophy which is fine in stable conditions but it only takes a relatively small impact to screw the 'whole' chain.

That is why I think Government is employing a 'heavy hand'.

Exactly, and they should act with an abundance of caution, even if it makes some people who don't know how fine the margins are later carp that it was an over-reaction.

 

[GB72]

Certainly get the feeling that we may end up with a Xmas but we can say goodbye to new year and January. I can live with that.

 

[need_my_wedge]

I know that we really care more about hospitalisation and death more than infections, but today is the first big infection jump in a while. Some 20K over night, appreciate that there may still be some weekend catchup going on, but still it's not a nice trend.

 

[SocketRocket]

Ffs Foxy. Please post in the English version of English. I appreciate that you were taught the language in another country but if you are unable to say what you want to say without having to use excessive punctuation, either get further lessons in English or don't bother. Your posts are sometimes almost unreadable.

I think Foxy is a software developer and as such tends to express himself/their self in a form/manner used when writing/developing software (lots of parenthesis).

 

[PNWokingham]

Exactly, and they should act with an abundance of caution, even if it makes some people who don't know how fine the margins are later carp that it was an over-reaction.

an abundance of caution is saying lock down again. This is not going away this year or next - unless something nastier comes along i think we have to learn to live with it as part of day-to-day life. We cannot shield from this varient or any others that follow. Vaccines, improved treatments and options and new ones coming through mean we should be able to get on with life and not kill the economy and send mental health ballistic when we are not seeing excess deaths.

 

[SocketRocket]

I know that we really care more about hospitalisation and death more than infections, but today is the first big infection jump in a while. Some 20K over night, appreciate that there may still be some weekend catchup going on, but still it's not a nice trend.

Is it not expected in midwinter, it certainly is with. Flu.

 

[Ethan]

an abundance of caution is saying lock down again. This is not going away this year or next - unless something nastier comes along i think we have to learn to live with it as part of day-to-day life. We cannot shield from this varient or any others that follow. Vaccines, improved treatments and options and new ones coming through mean we should be able to get on with life and not kill the economy and send mental health ballistic when we are not seeing excess deaths.

Again, you offer this as a choice between public health or the economy. This is the mistake that has caused so much damage. Both of these go together.

An abundance of caution does not necessarily mean lock down again. It could mean properly police the borders, rather than abandon the red list and quarantine, it could mean more extensive Covid passports and less tolerance of bullshit exemption claims, and could mean MPs showing an example to the population in their behaviour and attitude.

But if we carry on with the half-arsed strategy, then it will be lock-down again, and those of you who have called for it will be responsible for it.

This idea of living with it is nonsensical. There is only one strategy that will work, push vaccination and boosters until the number of vulnerable people are too few to maintain outbreaks, and then the level of endemicity is very low. So if you think that saving the economy is the priority, you should have been writing to John Redwood demanding more focus on vaccination, Covid passports, mandatory NHS staff vax and all that jazz.

As for mental health, people manning that they are stressed or can't stand WFH any more is not mental health issues.

 

[bobmac]

I know that we really care more about hospitalisation and death more than infections, but today is the first big infection jump in a while. Some 20K over night, appreciate that there may still be some weekend catchup going on, but still it's not a nice trend.

Deaths down, patients admitted to hospital down, patients in hospital down, patients on ICU down, testing up, vaccinations up.

 

[Pants]

I think Foxy is a software developer and as such tends to express himself/their self in a form/manner used when writing/developing software (lots of parenthesis).

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