Brexit - The negotiations.

Status
Not open for further replies.
drdel said:
There's quite a bit of common ground the main difference is the EU seem to mention the "Union's interest" whereas the UK using'mutual'. Obviously the EU insisting on combining Fishing to trade, Ireland/NI and the Financial services bit are more challenging. Strategically I would have thought it a fairly straightforward negotiation.
Click to expand...

I think it shows potential for being a great agreement. However, if its as good as it looks which is the next EU member state to leave and ask for the same deal? The EU might like it in isolation but there's a serious ramification to consider.
 
Hobbit said:
I think it shows potential for being a great agreement. However, if its as good as it looks which is the next EU member state to leave and ask for the same deal? The EU might like it in isolation but there's a serious ramification to consider.
Click to expand...

I think that if our leaving is as successful as it could be then it will inevitably see the much earlier break up of the EU. Countries will cluster together for trade deals between themselves and this will end as a Common Market- which is what I voted for back in the early 70's
 
SocketRocket said:
Would you be happier for the UK to get a poor deal
Click to expand...
You really think that folks who voted to remain in the EU want to see our country and our economy damaged by us having a poor deal, when all along we argued against leaving the EU on the basis that we feared the country would be damaged by leaving because we wouldn't be able get a deal that would match up to what we had and compensate for all we lose...well maybe you do.

[EDIT]And I hear many Leave votes actually wanting UK to fail to agree a deal with the EU and for us to move to trading under WTO rules.
 
Beezerk said:
I honestly do think that some people would prefer that, just so they can stick their tongues out at people and go "naa naa naa, see I told you so".
Weird really.
Click to expand...
I have 2 kids who will be entering the job market in the next 2-10 years. I'd be over the bloody moon if it was all sunlit uplands and great deals There isn't a person in this country who would be happier with a great deal than me.. Not one.. And I was (am) a staunch remainer. There is a world of difference between being concerned that we will be seriously disadvantaging ourselves, and not wanting whatever our final direction is to be a success.
 
bluewolf said:
I have 2 kids who will be entering the job market in the next 2-10 years. I'd be over the bloody moon if it was all sunlit uplands and great deals There isn't a person in this country who would be happier with a great deal than me.. Not one.. And I was (am) a staunch remainer. There is a world of difference between being concerned that we will be seriously disadvantaging ourselves, and not wanting whatever our final direction is to be a success.
Click to expand...

But the EU may not be able (is very unlikely) to offer a brighter future - its running out of options. Germany looking at a prolonged period of budget deficit. France continues with unrest and is heavily reliant on the the EU continuing their massive support for French farmers, Italy is still a basket case, as is Greece. Most of the Eastern members are kept afloat by cash from the 5 main members. ECB can't sustain its pump priming of their market.

Globally China, Japan and many in the Far East have significant economic issues

The BoE and sterling give us control options over our economics. The supply chain vulnerabilities/disruptions caused by the (over) reaction to COVID 19 is causing the major importers to reconsider domestics sourcing which is good for UK firms.

I'd venture to say UK kids future prospects are far better here than in any of our close nations.
 
drdel said:
But the EU may not be able (is very unlikely) to offer a brighter future - its running out of options. Germany looking at a prolonged period of budget deficit. France continues with unrest and is heavily reliant on the the EU continuing their massive support for French farmers, Italy is still a basket case, as is Greece. Most of the Eastern members are kept afloat by cash from the 5 main members. ECB can't sustain its pump priming of their market.

Globally China, Japan and many in the Far East have significant economic issues

The BoE and sterling give us control options over our economics. The supply chain vulnerabilities/disruptions caused by the (over) reaction to COVID 19 is causing the major importers to reconsider domestics sourcing which is good for UK firms.

I'd venture to say UK kids future prospects are far better here than in any of our close nations.
Click to expand...

As with most things on here, this is "just" your opinion, albeit based on a current snapshot of many factors (an opinion which I have stated before that I respect). However, it is my belief that the economic future of this Union is better served as a leading member of a Trading Bloc. With a say in the direction of travel and with the backing of other member States. I believe that we will be in a better place to recover from future economic turbulence (that will affect us all, despite the split).

I'd think that most would agree that the next 20-50 years are going to bring some sizable socio-economic shifts, especially with regards to population movements and farming practices. I would prefer us to be part of a team. It's a character flaw most likely linked to being a 2nd generation immigrant ;-)
 
bluewolf said:
As with most things on here, this is "just" your opinion, albeit based on a current snapshot of many factors (an opinion which I have stated before that I respect). However, it is my belief that the economic future of this Union is better served as a leading member of a Trading Bloc. With a say in the direction of travel and with the backing of other member States. I believe that we will be in a better place to recover from future economic turbulence (that will affect us all, despite the split).

I'd think that most would agree that the next 20-50 years are going to bring some sizable socio-economic shifts, especially with regards to population movements and farming practices. I would prefer us to be part of a team. It's a character flaw most likely linked to being a 2nd generation immigrant ;-)
Click to expand...

Absolutely that's all it is - just my views based on a bit of experience of international supply chain vulnerability and other economics stuff.
 
drdel said:
Absolutely that's all it is - just my views based on a bit of experience of international supply chain vulnerability and other economics stuff.
Click to expand...
I feel that I should point out that the reason I put the "Just" in quotation marks in my previous post was an attempt to avoid belittling your opinion. I appreciate that it may not have come across that way.
 
bluewolf said:
As with most things on here, this is "just" your opinion, albeit based on a current snapshot of many factors (an opinion which I have stated before that I respect). However, it is my belief that the economic future of this Union is better served as a leading member of a Trading Bloc. With a say in the direction of travel and with the backing of other member States. I believe that we will be in a better place to recover from future economic turbulence (that will affect us all, despite the split).

I'd think that most would agree that the next 20-50 years are going to bring some sizable socio-economic shifts, especially with regards to population movements and farming practices. I would prefer us to be part of a team. It's a character flaw most likely linked to being a 2nd generation immigrant ;-)
Click to expand...

Would a good deal, especially the one the UK would like, not give us pretty much all you ask for without the economic risks that the EU is facing... even the Erasmus programme is included?

As for the desire to be part of a trading bloc; yes please. But it isn't a level playing field for each of the member states. I'd cite the support Land Rover received to open a factory in the Czech Republic whilst one was then closed in the UK is a prime example of the skewed thinking. It is clearly against EU rules but the EU's own investigation(hahahahahaha) found otherwise. And you could add other instances so easily, e.g. Tata steel closing steel making on Teesside but getting huge grants and pay outs to open a plant in the Netherlands.
 
Hobbit said:
Would a good deal, especially the one the UK would like, not give us pretty much all you ask for without the economic risks that the EU is facing... even the Erasmus programme is included?

As for the desire to be part of a trading bloc; yes please. But it isn't a level playing field for each of the member states. I'd cite the support Land Rover received to open a factory in the Czech Republic whilst one was then closed in the UK is a prime example of the skewed thinking. It is clearly against EU rules but the EU's own investigation(hahahahahaha) found otherwise. And you could add other instances so easily, e.g. Tata steel closing steel making on Teesside but getting huge grants and pay outs to open a plant in the Netherlands.
Click to expand...

All valid points, but not enough to convince me that separation is the answer.

With regards to the "Good Deal", as I've stated previously, I'm desperate for a good deal (or a great deal), but I genuinely don't think there will be one. If I was a betting man (and I'm not), I'd wager this weeks wage on a spectacular fall out, with both sides claiming the moral high ground, followed by a clamour for the "Australian" deal, which is actually No Deal. I still believe that the 2 sides are too far apart and that there is plenty of underhanded dealing going on, both in front of, and behind the media. I will gladly hold my hands up and accept that I'm wrong if it's otherwise (and I've been fairly consistent about the chances of a Deal for over 2 years)
 
I think the EU member countries want a deal just like the UK does, the stumbling block is whether the EU executive put punishing a leaver above free trading arrangements with an important trading market and one they have a sizable trading surplus with.
We are already separated even though in a short transition period so pontificating about separation is pointless, that boat has now sailed. All we can do is make our best attempt at a mutual free trade deal that doesn't tie down our new competitive opportunities.
 
Not gone through the last seven pages so apologies if this has been mentioned. But why should the fishing rights in our waters be part of any deal. Is not the whole point of being independent that you can look after your industries and workforce’s. Do we have rights to french wineyards, bit flippant I know but am sure the fishermen who voted leave would be bogged off if nowt changed re EU trawlers in UK waters.
 
Tashyboy said:
Not gone through the last seven pages so apologies if this has been mentioned. But why should the fishing rights in our waters be part of any deal. Is not the whole point of being independent that you can look after your industries and workforce’s. Do we have rights to french wineyards, bit flippant I know but am sure the fishermen who voted leave would be bogged off if nowt changed re EU trawlers in UK waters.
Click to expand...
So we shouldn’t fish their waters either I assume so we have variation in the species of fish available to buy?
That’s a very little England attitude of “This is my ball and I decide who plays with it and if anyone tries to kick it I’m going home!”
 
Kellfire said:
So we shouldn’t fish their waters either I assume so we have variation in the species of fish available to buy?
That’s a very little England attitude of “This is my ball and I decide who plays with it and if anyone tries to kick it I’m going home!”
Click to expand...
Absolutely correct! There's a reason it's (universally) called a 'Little England attitude'!

And that's absolutely and precisely what Brexit was/is all about - for better (hopefully) or worse (unfortunately, imo, more likely)!
That said, access to fishing rights in UK waters is one of the 'major weapons' in the UK's negotiating team's arsenal. It's absolutely essential that they use it wisely!
 
Kellfire said:
So we shouldn’t fish their waters either I assume so we have variation in the species of fish available to buy?
That’s a very little England attitude of “This is my ball and I decide who plays with it and if anyone tries to kick it I’m going home!”
Click to expand...

It is simply a question of who is in control. The EU's fishing regs are too general and broad brushed it has allowed over fishing by EU fishing with large vessels that scrape the sea floor which is ruining sustainability: the UK simply intends to use a system of annual reviews to set quotas based on the state of the specific fish population. Seems eminently sensible to me.
 
drdel said:
...The EU's fishing regs are too general and broad brushed it has allowed over fishing by EU fishing with large vessels that scrape the sea floor which is ruining sustainability:...
Click to expand...
That's the way Cornish Oystermen have been working - sustainably - for over 150 years!

What 'fish' are the EU dregders targetting. Dredging (scraping the sea floor) is pretty much exclusively used to target shellfish.

I certainly agree that there's over-fishing happening - and in UK waters - but have serious doubts that it is via dredging; more likely to be siply too much 'efficient' nets targetting 'above sea-floor' fish.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top