UKIP a change on the political horizon or not.

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Tashyboy

Tashyboy

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With the gaining of the first seat for UKIP , which was probably nailed on, and nearly gaining another seat at the other end of the country. Is the political scene/balance going to change in the near future ?
 
Tashyboy said:
With the gaining of the first seat for UKIP , which was probably nailed on, and nearly gaining another seat at the other end of the country. Is the political scene/balance going to change in the near future ?
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not as significantly as your post is inferring....imo.
 
Perhaps in the marginal seats where people want a change from what they have historically had, but in the dyed in the wool areas where one party has always been in power, not a chance.

The area where I live has always been a labour area, in every election, no other party has got even half the number of votes, so in other areas like where I live it will take something really radical for UKIP to make in roads.
 
Khamelion said:
Perhaps in the marginal seats where people want a change from what they have historically had, but in the dyed in the wool areas where one party has always been in power, not a chance.

The area where I live has always been a labour area, in every election, no other party has got even half the number of votes, so in other areas like where I live it will take something really radical for UKIP to make in roads.
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That may well be the case having a look at previous results in the heywood election in 2010 labour won 40.1% of the vote with UKIP getting 2.6. This time labour gained 40.9%, with UKIP getting 38.7 but all of there gains were from the Torys and liberals.

I think another big factor was the low turnout of the electorate.
 
Tashyboy said:
Its not inferring anything, it's asking a question which is being asked on BBC TV as I am watching now. I am interested in people's views.
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Not where I live, We have had the same tory MP for the last 17 years and I cant see that changing any time soon, in fact I think every Hertfordhsire constituency is conservative.
 
I think they could have a significant impact at the next election whether by winning seats or by taking votes from the other parties so interfering in that seat. I don't think anyone quite knows how much impact but at the moment they are the party with momentum and that momentum is growing. The attacks on them morning show very clearly that they are no longer a joke party and the main parties are taking them very seriously.

Long term - Who knows? I don't think they have enough depth to their policies and those that they have don't often stand up to scrutiny. If nothing else they are shaking the big two up and Farage is refreshingly blunt and happy to answer questions directly. They are not for me but as an operator he is currently the best out there.
 
Interesting listening to the tv crew interviewing people as they left the polling station and asking would they vote the same way in the General Election. Answer was No. If they've made a protest vote for UKIP then there's only 8 months to worry about it. Big test comes next May.
 
Voting for UKIP at by elections is probably similar to voting for the Lib-Dems in past by elections as a protest vote. Intended to hit the ruling political party where it hurts the most!
 
UKIP provide a valuable service to the hard of thinking. They give them an excuse, some one to blame for the problems in their lives. By blaming all their problems on immigration and the EU people are absolved of responsibility for their own short-comings. It's marvelous

You can't blame thick people for voting for them. If I was too stupid to acknowledge that we need immigration to provide a work-force in our aging population, and too thick to see the irony in campaigning for "Better Together" while wanting isolation from our biggest markets on the continent, I too would vote UKIP. Thankfully I have a 3 figure IQ, so I don't need to.
 
When a UKIP MP is voted in that isn't someone who has held that seat for over a decade and just recently deflected then people will take notice
 
JamPal said:
UKIP provide a valuable service to the hard of thinking. They give them an excuse, some one to blame for the problems in their lives. By blaming all their problems on immigration and the EU people are absolved of responsibility for their own short-comings. It's marvelous

You can't blame thick people for voting for them. If I was too stupid to acknowledge that we need immigration to provide a work-force in our aging population, and too thick to see the irony in campaigning for "Better Together" while wanting isolation from our biggest markets on the continent, I too would vote UKIP. Thankfully I have a 3 figure IQ, so I don't need to.
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And unfortunately you can't help the even thicker who choose to believe everything they read in media!
 
It wouldn't surprise me if UKIP gave out Tory MP a run for his money next year.
UKIP have come out firmly against the HS2 rail link - a lot of David Liddington's constituents are being screwed by the prospect of the line and may protest by voting against him - he hasn't come out against the line....
Might not make a difference but....
 
I'm sure UKIP will make inroads but my biggest worry would be the fact that if they won a lot of the marginal seats, how much would it affect one party gaining an overall majority. We know that some areas are nailed on blue or red (or other parties in Scotland and Northern Ireland) and they will stay the same. It's these marginals that are crucial to a winning majority and with UKIP taking these away will there be an outright winner?
 
I think the combination of an incumbent candidate and a protest vote swelling their ballot was enough to get UKIP the win. As already said, many people questioned leaving the polls stated they wouldn't vote the same way in the general election.

Either Labour or Conservative will win the election, UKIP will probably increase their share of the vote but I doubt they'll win many, if any, seats.
 
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