Rainy Summer: A few more to come perhaps

Slab

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Saw this article today suggesting the current pattern of wet summers in the UK is now being seen as part of a recognised weather cycle...

Although the cycle does not guarantee wet summers, it “loads the dice” in favour of increased rainfall each year, making wet summers more likely for the next five to ten years. The prediction is based on the last two times the cycle - known as Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation - occurred, in the 1950s early 1960s and in the 1880s.

Extract from The Independent

Sorry guys keep the waterproofs handy!
 
I saw the article as well.
However they couldn't even get the weather forecast right for last weekend down
here in the southwest.
All the thechnology in the world and they still mess it up.
 
I heard this 10 year forecast on news this morning. It already seems to have settled in to this pattern grey overcast and rain every few days with heavy rain fall every month or so.
 
IT was supposed to chuck it down over the weekend just gone, Sunday was going to be a wash out, yet here in the north east, or the part of the north east where I live not a drop. So far this week it has been glorious, warm, breezy and sunny through the day clouding over at night, with a little rain, but who cares if it rains then.

Rain trough the night to water the course, sun through the day to make it grow and dry it out, what more could you ask for?
 
All the thechnology in the world and they still mess it up.

Unfortunately I do know a bit about this professionally. For the short term forecasts (up to 48 hours) they are usually extremely good. Of course some weather is by its nature extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy, especially the type we can get in this country due to our location. It's just human nature that remembers the times they got it wrong and forget the times they got it right.

Once they start going into longer term forecasts that is when it can go horribly wrong, and of course the longer the forecast the worse it can be. Personally I use anything over 48 hours as an indication. If we are in a period of static high pressure then it's more than likely to be correct. If we have fronts coming in and the weather is changeable then treat it with a pinch of salt.

Then pay a lot more attention to the 24 to 48 hour forecast, but again the more changable it is the less accurate it will be. After all at times people expect them to be able to forecast exactly when it will start to rain in every single location in the UK. And they will never get that right. I've had some cases where I was looking to play golf and looked at courses within 5 miles, it was chucking it down for 4 hours at one course and fine at another.
 
Unfortunately I do know a bit about this professionally. For the short term forecasts (up to 48 hours) they are usually extremely good. Of course some weather is by its nature extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy, especially the type we can get in this country due to our location. It's just human nature that remembers the times they got it wrong and forget the times they got it right.

Once they start going into longer term forecasts that is when it can go horribly wrong, and of course the longer the forecast the worse it can be. Personally I use anything over 48 hours as an indication. If we are in a period of static high pressure then it's more than likely to be correct. If we have fronts coming in and the weather is changeable then treat it with a pinch of salt.

Then pay a lot more attention to the 24 to 48 hour forecast, but again the more changable it is the less accurate it will be. After all at times people expect them to be able to forecast exactly when it will start to rain in every single location in the UK. And they will never get that right. I've had some cases where I was looking to play golf and looked at courses within 5 miles, it was chucking it down for 4 hours at one course and fine at another.

Good post:thup:
 
My rule of thumb is that two times out of three the weather tomorrow will be the same as today. So as today is pretty similar to yesterday I'd predict tomorrow will be different - as as today is fine - I predict tomorrow won't be.
 
I don't even bother watching the forcast any more. It really is just guess work and more often wrong than right. In my area there are a lot of hills which means weather can be extremley localised and impossible to predict. Nevertheless, I don't think it helps when the met office spend millions of our money on a super computer and then forecast a "barbecue" summer as they did 2 or 3 years ago, based on the fact that we hadn't had 3 bad summers on the trot since 1860. That's not forecasting. That's guessing and you don't need a super computer for that. To me it's all about the jet stream. If it hasn't risen above the UK by the end of June you are in for a bad summer. last year it sat right above Spain and they had 40 degrees. Anything above it gets low pressure, which means overcast and rain. This may be a bit simplistic, but it seems to work out right.
That said, there seems no doubt that we are in a wet summer cycle and my worry is the impact this will have on golf in general and clubs in particular. I don't think some can take another summer or two like last year.
 
Although the cycle does not guarantee wet summers, it “loads the dice” in favour of increased rainfall each year, making wet summers more likely for the next five to ten years. The prediction is based on the last two times the cycle - known as Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation - occurred, in the 1950s early 1960s and in the 1880s.
Interesting, but I wonder how far into this 5 to 10 year cycle we are? The last really good summer I remember was 2003.
 
Nevertheless, I don't think it helps when the met office spend millions of our money on a super computer and then forecast a "barbecue" summer as they did 2 or 3 years ago, based on the fact that we hadn't had 3 bad summers on the trot since 1860. That's not forecasting. That's guessing and you don't need a super computer for that.

Surprisingly enough there was more to it than just looking at the fact they had had 2 previous bad summers. :confused: Not sure if you read this in a paper, if so it was extremely simplified garbage. I'm probably guessing the Daily Express if any as they seem obsessed with the weather and completely distort anything any forecaster says to make front pages headlines screaming "The coldest winter ever is coming up", "The hottest/wettest/gayest summer" etc etc. And without fail they talk utter rot. In fact it is pretty scary when you do actually know something about a subject and then see how it is portrayed in papers, especially the tabloids. As you imagine this goes on for every subject they talk about.

Anyway, I am not here to defend forecasters when they do silly things like say it will be a bbq summer. It was someone just trying to simplify things and looking for a sound bite when they should have stuck to the science. They have learnt from their mistakes when they did this and now keep these type of forecasts out of the public domain where they can. But they still issue these to industry.

As I said in a previous post just look at the 24 to 48 hour forecast. And in the UK ignore anything else if it is only going to upset you if it is wrong. And don't believe a word you read in the Daily Express about the weather.
 
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