POKER - Skill v Luck

[Big D 88]

With regards poker, whats everyones opinions on the argument against skill versus luck?

I've played online, since i was 18yr old, so around 8 years. Without knowing the exact details i am confident i can tell you my record in them years went something like

Year 1 - LOSS
Year 2 - LOSS
Year 3 - LOSS
Year 4 - LOSS
Year 5 - LOSS
Year 6 - Broke even (roughly)
Year 7 - Made two big cashes, so would of covered any deposits
This year - 2x Wins in big freezeouts & last night cashed for 4 figures

Its got me thinking, when i first started out playing, i thought it was all down to luck and didnt really have much of a game plan or a stategy

These days, i think i've become a better player.

Do you think this is possible? Is there skill involved? If so, what % skill against the % of luck involved?

Thanks,

 

[CliveW]

You never see casinos going bankrupt do you? I don't gamble because I have witnessed how addictive it can get and how it nearly ruined our family due to a relative running up massive gambling debts, such that he lost his family, house and job in the Civil Service.
One of my sons, who seems to be around the same age as you, gambles on line, and claims it is skill, but he can't be that skillful by the amount he has lost! Mugs game.

 

[fundy]

You never see casinos going bankrupt do you? I don't gamble because I have witnessed how addictive it can get and how it nearly ruined our family due to a relative running up massive gambling debts, such that he lost his family, house and job in the Civil Service.
One of my sons, who seems to be around the same age as you, gambles on line, and claims it is skill, but he can't be that skillful by the amount he has lost! Mugs game.

Almost all gambling is a mugs game, mainly because people dont realise how good the people they are betting against are, whether it be the house in casinos, bookmakers or seasoned sports bettors on the exchanges (ie betfair). Its also got a lot lot harder to make money consistently the last few years in almost all gambling spheres, there are still some edges but they tend to get eroded quite quickly and only those who are very astute are able to stay ahead of the game.

As for poker specifically, the live game in casinos is still pretty soft (tournaments especially) the only danger can be at some of the higher stakes cash tables really, online, you've got to be super super good to beat the rake (and getting lucky at the business of 1 or 2 tournaments doesnt constitute this), the standard online this days is ridiculously good, there is just too much information out there so players can learn far too quickly without having to play a huge volume of hands.

Unless you are dedicating huge hours to improving your game, play it recreationally, for stakes you can afford

 

[Hacker Khan]

I think it depends who you are playing against. I used to play against the same mates every week and I won more than my fair share of games as I got to know how they played. Plus I used a bit of NLP (neuro linguistic programming) to help.

But of course some weeks I lost as I just did not have the cards and the luck was not with me. There's not a lot you can do if the best hand you mostly get is 10 4 off suit. But there is also a lot of skill in working out the odds of your hand being the winning hand, that amateurs can not do very well. So sometimes you may think you have a good pair of cards pre flop (a low pair being the prime example), but a skillful player knows when to fold. I think just playing on most hands in the one in 52 chance you will get your card is the biggest mistake people make if they don't know what they are doing.

So I'd say the most skillful players will more often than not win in the long run, but anyone can win in one off games if they get good cards and know roughly how to play them. Also I never play on line for cash as you don't know who you are playing against or what programs they are using to calculate their odds of winning

 

[Deleted member 15344]

As with most things in life when you are competing - it will be down to skill with a sprinkling of luck

 

[bernix]

i do not play poker but i do play a lot of bridge. as i am a very accomplished player - even represented my country internationally - i can confirm that bridge is about 80% skill (and partnership understanding) and 20% luck. many bridgeplayers play poker as well, some of them are very good at it, and they state that poker is roughly the same, of course no partnership understanding involved but the psychological factor - knowing and reading your opponents - is more important

 

[Doh]

We started a poker night a our club £10 in and that's your limit everyone gets the same amount of chips six to a table winner takes all.
There were some very experienced players and some very new one's me included almost all the time the experienced players won. It went one for a few months and died a death when people started have silly side bets, but without doubt skill plays a big part.

 

[HomerJSimpson]

Never been drawn to gambling on a regular basis aside from a few wagers on the footie and the nags when I was younger. It's a mugs game, especially cards imo and I've seen a couple of people get into some fiscal turbulance as a result of their addiction, and have always gone looking for the "big one" to recoup losses.

Never really played poker as I think it's too reliant on not only the luck of the deal but the quality of the opposition and in my case if it wasn't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all and always seem to find thise with luckier hands or more accomplished players so I steer clear

 

[Deleted member 18588]

Obviously there is a large element of skill but the luck factor is still very significant.

Back in the '60s we used to play a lot of brag, pontoon and solo. One of the older guys had a saying which I found to be very true:

"You can only play the cards you are dealt."

 

[Jimaroid]

The skill in poker is knowing when you have a better chance of being lucky than someone else.

 

[Khamelion]

My other halves nephew started out as a croupier on a casino boat in the black sea, he came home to Newcastle carry on and is now one of the managers in a casino and he'll you that :-

1. Gambling is a mugs game
2. The house nearly always wins
3. The house lets people win to make them come back another day
4. Only gamble what you can afford to lose
5. Walk away when you have lost
6. Walk away when you have won
7. Don't get greedy

Two tales he told stick in the mind, the first a gentleman arrived at the casino one morning with a few quid, play roulette he had pretty quickly made a large profit, somewhere into the tens of thousands, so he got greedy and started betting with bigger amounts, which worked for him for a while and he got up to a 6 figure sum, but then he started losing, but instead of walking away, he carried on betting looking to win back what he was losing and eventually walked away with nothing.

The other related to poker was that a local Chinese restaurateur was in a poker game thought he had the winning hand, everytime the last opponent raised the stakes he covered them, until he was out of cash, but so sure he was of his cards, he bet his restaurant and subsequently lost.

That written poker must have some element of skill. I was also told of footballers coming into the casino to play poker and people would wait for them to arrive to play them, because the footballes had money to throw away and mainly because they were crap at the game.

 

[Tarkus1212]

Presumably we're talking Texas Hold'em? Undoubtedly skill has far more influence than in Stud or Draw poker. I thoroughly enjoy an evening's poker but I only play tournaments, my skill level isn't good enough to play no limit cash games and I can't afford to risk huge amounts. I've played poker in Vegas and it's great value for money - several hours entertainment and free drinks while you're playing for buy-ins of $40, the casinos must hate poker players

 

[Mugs]

The skill is all maths based, it's basically knowing when you have the best odds to Call, Raise or Fold

You don't need to be holding the best hand Pre Flop or Post Flop to have the best hand/chance of winning, it is all dependant on the pot odds and number of outs you have left in the deck to hit

There will be occasions when luck plays its part but if you make the correct decision based on maths then you will win 8 out of 10 times

However once you start playing with regulars then it also comes down to knowing how to bluff against their range using bet sizing and blockers etc but the premise is the same and maths based

 

[Big D 88]

Almost all gambling is a mugs game, mainly because people dont realise how good the people they are betting against are, whether it be the house in casinos, bookmakers or seasoned sports bettors on the exchanges (ie betfair). Its also got a lot lot harder to make money consistently the last few years in almost all gambling spheres, there are still some edges but they tend to get eroded quite quickly and only those who are very astute are able to stay ahead of the game.

As for poker specifically, the live game in casinos is still pretty soft (tournaments especially) the only danger can be at some of the higher stakes cash tables really, online, you've got to be super super good to beat the rake (and getting lucky at the business of 1 or 2 tournaments doesnt constitute this), the standard online this days is ridiculously good, there is just too much information out there so players can learn far too quickly without having to play a huge volume of hands.

Unless you are dedicating huge hours to improving your game, play it recreationally, for stakes you can afford

I do play recreationally, the deposit limit on pokerstars is set at £50 per month, this gets me into 2/3 tournaments on a weekend

As for the bit in bold? I dont understand? I'm not playing cash poker,
An $11 freezeout, you have $10 into the kitty and $1 to the house.
I'm not saying i am any good, what i was asking was would you say it is more luck or improvement in skill that in 6 years i probably deposited around 3k and maybe withdrew £500 back, but in the last 2 years i've deposited around £800 and withdrew £7,400?

As with most things in life when you are competing - it will be down to skill with a sprinkling of luck

nicely put!

i do not play poker but i do play a lot of bridge. as i am a very accomplished player - even represented my country internationally - i can confirm that bridge is about 80% skill (and partnership understanding) and 20% luck. many bridgeplayers play poker as well, some of them are very good at it, and they state that poker is roughly the same, of course no partnership understanding involved but the psychological factor - knowing and reading your opponents - is more important

Which can be difficult online but during tournaments the likelihood is you'll play vast amount of hands with the same players and you can judge wehn players will be you out more than others. I find online, people are way more likely to call all ins with not a lot. In casino's it tends to tighten up a bit somewhat

My other halves nephew started out as a croupier on a casino boat in the black sea, he came home to Newcastle carry on and is now one of the managers in a casino and he'll you that :-

1. Gambling is a mugs game
2. The house nearly always wins
3. The house lets people win to make them come back another day
4. Only gamble what you can afford to lose
5. Walk away when you have lost
6. Walk away when you have won
7. Don't get greedy

Two tales he told stick in the mind, the first a gentleman arrived at the casino one morning with a few quid, play roulette he had pretty quickly made a large profit, somewhere into the tens of thousands, so he got greedy and started betting with bigger amounts, which worked for him for a while and he got up to a 6 figure sum, but then he started losing, but instead of walking away, he carried on betting looking to win back what he was losing and eventually walked away with nothing.

The other related to poker was that a local Chinese restaurateur was in a poker game thought he had the winning hand, everytime the last opponent raised the stakes he covered them, until he was out of cash, but so sure he was of his cards, he bet his restaurant and subsequently lost.

That written poker must have some element of skill. I was also told of footballers coming into the casino to play poker and people would wait for them to arrive to play them, because the footballes had money to throw away and mainly because they were crap at the game.

correct, in poker tournaments the house will always win, as your buy in includes a fee to the house

I dont smoke, and £50 a month on poker a month gets me 2/3 tournaments each weekend

If i cash - it pays for the month!

Presumably we're talking Texas Hold'em? Undoubtedly skill has far more influence than in Stud or Draw poker. I thoroughly enjoy an evening's poker but I only play tournaments, my skill level isn't good enough to play no limit cash games and I can't afford to risk huge amounts. I've played poker in Vegas and it's great value for money - several hours entertainment and free drinks while you're playing for buy-ins of $40, the casinos must hate poker players

Exactly this

Yes for years i was depositing £20-£40 a month into pokerstars and maybe withdraw £100 once a year if that. So yes i was down for the year but i was playing within my means. Deposit limits means i could have never chased losses either.

The last 2 years i have done much better in tournaments, i too never play cash as imo £40 in chips wont last long if you have one bad beat

Ive never played in Vegas, i bet that must be a buzz whatever the buy in!!

The skill is all maths based, it's basically knowing when you have the best odds to Call, Raise or Fold

You don't need to be holding the best hand Pre Flop or Post Flop to have the best hand/chance of winning, it is all dependant on the pot odds and number of outs you have left in the deck to hit

There will be occasions when luck plays its part but if you make the correct decision based on maths then you will win 8 out of 10 times

However once you start playing with regulars then it also comes down to knowing how to bluff against their range using bet sizing and blockers etc but the premise is the same and maths based

Completely Agree

 

[Fyldewhite]

Can't really add much. All gambling has an element of luck but whereas roulette will always result in the house winning long term, most hold 'em games are essentially player v player and it's how you play the hands that matters. Definitely a predominantly skill based game and in the long term the good players will win and the poor players won't. Far from a mugs game if you are good! I'm not good but enjoy a punt and generally just about break even, I have a mate who is very good and have watched him winning nearly £200 over the last week alone.....he's well into 4 figures profit over the last 2/3 years. If you win over the long term at anything it's 'nowt to do with luck.

 

[fundy]

I do play recreationally, the deposit limit on pokerstars is set at £50 per month, this gets me into 2/3 tournaments on a weekend

As for the bit in bold? I dont understand? I'm not playing cash poker,
An $11 freezeout, you have $10 into the kitty and $1 to the house.
I'm not saying i am any good, what i was asking was would you say it is more luck or improvement in skill that in 6 years i probably deposited around 3k and maybe withdrew £500 back, but in the last 2 years i've deposited around £800 and withdrew £7,400?



nicely put!



Which can be difficult online but during tournaments the likelihood is you'll play vast amount of hands with the same players and you can judge wehn players will be you out more than others. I find online, people are way more likely to call all ins with not a lot. In casino's it tends to tighten up a bit somewhat



correct, in poker tournaments the house will always win, as your buy in includes a fee to the house

I dont smoke, and £50 a month on poker a month gets me 2/3 tournaments each weekend

If i cash - it pays for the month!



Exactly this

Yes for years i was depositing £20-£40 a month into pokerstars and maybe withdraw £100 once a year if that. So yes i was down for the year but i was playing within my means. Deposit limits means i could have never chased losses either.

The last 2 years i have done much better in tournaments, i too never play cash as imo £40 in chips wont last long if you have one bad beat

Ive never played in Vegas, i bet that must be a buzz whatever the buy in!!



Completely Agree

Well the $11, 10% is rake, not as penal as in cash games but still erodes your profit quicker than you would realise, so you have to have a ROI of 10% profit just to break even (this number can be way higher in the lower stakes cash games)

As for whether you've improved the answer is probably, but ultimately I expect your sample size is still quite small. You may have run good a couple of times which have contributed all of your profits whereas a little run bad in those spots wouldve left you at breakeven or down and this is where the short term variance comes into effect. Theres a belief in cash games that you need over 100,000 hands to have a decent sample size, tournaments its even harder if you are playing on stars where the fields are in the thousands to ever get to a sample size.

Enjoy your success, keep a little for your bankroll to enable you to play some more tournaments (and maybe take the odd shot at higher buy ins?) and then spend some of your winnings on somthing tangible that you want!

Quick question, do you use a HUD?

 

[Tarkus1212]

Ive never played in Vegas, i bet that must be a buzz whatever the buy in!!

Playing poker in Vegas is great fun. I went with a mate who'd done the online research into which tournaments offered best VFM (e.g. size of starting stack, time between blind level changes). My very first tournament was a $40 buy-in at The Sahara and I was fortunate enough to win just over $900. Beginner's luck and I didn't cash again but did have some great fun. Best was a tournament at Ceaser's Palace - talk about opulent. As you say, a real buzz

 

[Big D 88]

Quick question, do you use a HUD?

I don't use a HUD but a couple of mates who play more frequent than me use Poker Tracker (sic) i think its called.

As i say, its purely recreational, if im not out on the beer, i'll generally enter a tournament on a sat and sunday evening and sit back, enjoy the golf on tele and have a few tinnies.

On stars you're right, 1000's of entries and by simply biding your time and picking your spot you can usually hang around long enough to cash.

Do you play much?

My last tournaments winnings haven't been updated on sharkscope yet but my ROI still isnt too bad

 

[Big D 88]

Playing poker in Vegas is great fun. I went with a mate who'd done the online research into which tournaments offered best VFM (e.g. size of starting stack, time between blind level changes). My very first tournament was a $40 buy-in at The Sahara and I was fortunate enough to win just over $900. Beginner's luck and I didn't cash again but did have some great fun. Best was a tournament at Ceaser's Palace - talk about opulent. As you say, a real buzz

Im jealous!

I'd even give cash games a go in Vegas, i reckon they'd be so many loose cannons it'd be great

Obviously - i'd be seen in exactly the same light as i perceive others hehe

 

[fundy]

I don't use a HUD but a couple of mates who play more frequent than me use Poker Tracker (sic) i think its called.

As i say, its purely recreational, if im not out on the beer, i'll generally enter a tournament on a sat and sunday evening and sit back, enjoy the golf on tele and have a few tinnies.

On stars you're right, 1000's of entries and by simply biding your time and picking your spot you can usually hang around long enough to cash.

Do you play much?

My last tournaments winnings haven't been updated on sharkscope yet but my ROI still isnt too bad

I used to play online full time, gave it up several years ago, mainly played 8 or 10 cash tables and it became too boring and robotic. Pretty much play live only these days, and only for fun, try and play some of the bigger local tournaments (mainly Gentings Luton and a bit at the G and DTD) and satellite into some of the bigger national ones (the only time i really play online these days). Played the WPT500 last weekend at DTD and got unlucky in the satellite for the 3K the other night sadly, will play the deepstack at Gentings this weekend (2 day tourney) instead now

Pokertracker def worth having, a high portion of your oppos are using it so makes sense for you to do so too