Ian_S
Challenge Tour Pro
Ok so I've been thinking about this one a bit today.
Last weekend, I was 4 under handicap through 13 and knew it (following my own advice the other week of getting used to playing while knowing your score, so that should some dillock you are playing with decide to open his mouth it won't affect you) so I know I'm in contention for a win but may need a little more yet.
Our 14th is a 577yd par 5, with water ending about 15 yards in front of the green. Normally this is a couple of decent strikes and I'm playing in from 150 no problem. However I pushed my tee shot into the fairway bunker. Had a decent but not great lie and ended up hitting my 4-iron out with a little hook (no doubting the 4-iron is the right shot because if it comes off I've got an approach, if it doesn't I'm laying up which I would be anyway if I splashed out).
So, if you're still reading, I ended up with a roughly 205 yard shot, needing to carry 190 to get over the water, from the semi-rough. Now course management would normally say that's a big ask, just hit a wedge to around 110 and then get on for a 6, possibly a 5 if you hit in close. I decided 'nah, I'm not hitting a half wedge, I'm hitting the ball well, I'm going for this' and got the 5-wood out. That's about my 5-wood distance, but I've got no cover if I mishit it. If I stuff it up, it's wet and I'm out of the comp.
As it turned out, the gamble worked. I creamed the 5-wood, was off the back of the green and with a simple chip-and-putt I made par to move to 5 under handicap. On the walk to the next tee, one of my playing partners remarked that he nearly asked 'what are you doing with that wood?'
Long way of asking the question, but what was I doing with that wood? You always have to be wary of outcome bias. Is a 19 handicapper taking on a 200 yard shot over water sensible? Does the fact that I was playing well to that point change that? Or did I take a huge risk, get away with it and win by a single stroke on the grounds of a fair chunk of luck?
Last weekend, I was 4 under handicap through 13 and knew it (following my own advice the other week of getting used to playing while knowing your score, so that should some dillock you are playing with decide to open his mouth it won't affect you) so I know I'm in contention for a win but may need a little more yet.
Our 14th is a 577yd par 5, with water ending about 15 yards in front of the green. Normally this is a couple of decent strikes and I'm playing in from 150 no problem. However I pushed my tee shot into the fairway bunker. Had a decent but not great lie and ended up hitting my 4-iron out with a little hook (no doubting the 4-iron is the right shot because if it comes off I've got an approach, if it doesn't I'm laying up which I would be anyway if I splashed out).
So, if you're still reading, I ended up with a roughly 205 yard shot, needing to carry 190 to get over the water, from the semi-rough. Now course management would normally say that's a big ask, just hit a wedge to around 110 and then get on for a 6, possibly a 5 if you hit in close. I decided 'nah, I'm not hitting a half wedge, I'm hitting the ball well, I'm going for this' and got the 5-wood out. That's about my 5-wood distance, but I've got no cover if I mishit it. If I stuff it up, it's wet and I'm out of the comp.
As it turned out, the gamble worked. I creamed the 5-wood, was off the back of the green and with a simple chip-and-putt I made par to move to 5 under handicap. On the walk to the next tee, one of my playing partners remarked that he nearly asked 'what are you doing with that wood?'
Long way of asking the question, but what was I doing with that wood? You always have to be wary of outcome bias. Is a 19 handicapper taking on a 200 yard shot over water sensible? Does the fact that I was playing well to that point change that? Or did I take a huge risk, get away with it and win by a single stroke on the grounds of a fair chunk of luck?
