Coronavirus - how is it/has it affected you?

[Ethan]

Is it actually that bad though Ethan? From a completely non-medical view point the fact that one of the quotes in the article is "There is a lot of speculation, but very few clear answers" seems to suggest that they don't yet know if this is going to be bad or not. Is it possible that it is highly mutated and could be far more transmissible and evade the vaccines, so that far more people get it, but be far less deadly and only give mild symptoms to those that do get it?

Viral evolution is reasonably well studied, and it is true that the specific effects of a given virus are not easily predicted. In general, viruses don't do well if they kill people, especially fast, because they can't spread effectively, so over time many viruses weekend and even if they become more transmissible, no big deal like the mass of different viruses that cause the common cold, some of which are coronaviruses. But like the flu, now and again a real bad variety comes along, and causes a lot of deaths.

The problem with Covid (OK, that's the disease rather than the virus) is that it is still lrealtvely early in its evolution, so the slow slide into middle age being a bitter rather than a danger, is still some way off. This one is still looking for action. Most of the vaccines are directed against the Spike, the sticky out bit, but this new variant appears to be evolving in other areas too, and that could spell trouble for vaccines.

The danger scenario would be if it had a longer incubation period during which it could transmit, and vaccination provided limited protection. Then it can spread widely quietly. If it starts to circulate widely, then that drives further mutation. It is better to speculate a bit wildly (worst case scenario) and over-react than relax and under-react.

 

[AmandaJR]

So a kind of tricky question and maybe one @Ethan can help with. It's about level of risk. I work in primary schools instructing Bikeability (think Cycling Proficiency in the modern world!). Most contact with riders (years 3 to 6) is outside although breaks are spent in school and the necessary signing in/out etc. There are Covid guidelines in place for us but it can be tricky to avoid contact with ill-fitting cycle helmets plus handling bikes to check their road worthiness.

So today was a group of year 3 in the morning and year 4 in the afternoon. At least one on the register couldn't attend due to testing positive for Covid.

We have to test twice weekly but I'm wondering what my risk is of contracting it (triple jabbed) but most importantly being asymptomatic and passing it on inadvertantly. I have a social event tomorrow evening in a pub and I'm thinking it wisest not to attend...

 

[road2ruin]

So a kind of tricky question and maybe one @Ethan can help with. It's about level of risk. I work in primary schools instructing Bikeability (think Cycling Proficiency in the modern world!). Most contact with riders (years 3 to 6) is outside although breaks are spent in school and the necessary signing in/out etc. There are Covid guidelines in place for us but it can be tricky to avoid contact with ill-fitting cycle helmets plus handling bikes to check their road worthiness.

So today was a group of year 3 in the morning and year 4 in the afternoon. At least one on the register couldn't attend due to testing positive for Covid.

We have to test twice weekly but I'm wondering what my risk is of contracting it (triple jabbed) but most importantly being asymptomatic and passing it on inadvertantly. I have a social event tomorrow evening in a pub and I'm thinking it wisest not to attend...

Sorry to wade it but my opinion on this would be that you are highly likely to contract Covid at some point whether it be from the kids in primary school or going to your social event in the pub, given that the bike thing is outside I'd say that you are more likely to get it in the boozer!! The fact that you are now triple jabbed means that your are protected so don't miss out on things in fear of getting it, if you do you'd be unlucky to get very ill with it. Again, with the passing on thing you can miss your pub event and then go and spread it round something else without knowing if you were asymptomatic, you can't stop doing things on the basis of maybe passing it on. Just my two penneth worth. Hopefully you enjoy the pub!

 

[DRW]

You are also infection recovered plus 3 dose. You have the best protection out there tbh, lab and real life stuff shows this.

The only thing you can do more, is to test yourself before going or not go. Pass on that score tho...

See this chart(from ONS), that gives you a good indication. The rest is down to you, only you can decide what you are comfortable with tbh, not some wally like me from a forum.:-

 

[Ethan]

So a kind of tricky question and maybe one @Ethan can help with. It's about level of risk. I work in primary schools instructing Bikeability (think Cycling Proficiency in the modern world!). Most contact with riders (years 3 to 6) is outside although breaks are spent in school and the necessary signing in/out etc. There are Covid guidelines in place for us but it can be tricky to avoid contact with ill-fitting cycle helmets plus handling bikes to check their road worthiness.

So today was a group of year 3 in the morning and year 4 in the afternoon. At least one on the register couldn't attend due to testing positive for Covid.

We have to test twice weekly but I'm wondering what my risk is of contracting it (triple jabbed) but most importantly being asymptomatic and passing it on inadvertantly. I have a social event tomorrow evening in a pub and I'm thinking it wisest not to attend...

Much the same as R2R, in my opinion.

Being outside makes a big difference, and if the close contact, helmets, checking bikes is relatively brief, unless one of the little dears who is asymptomatically infected coughs right in your face, the risk is probably pretty low. If the indoor sessions are decently ventilated, that helps too.

But in the longer run, I think as long as Covid is endemic, it is going to circulate round and infect many people over and over and probably all of us eventually. Triple jabbed is the new fully vaccinated, so the risk of a bad outcome to being infected is very low. But vaccination is not a substitute for sensible social measures, so keep those up.

The new Botswana variant is a concern, though, and that could change things quite a bit, especially if it shows signs of vaccine escape. Vaccines would still help, but instead of stopping you getting any symptoms, you might get a mild case, some who would have got a mild case of another variant might get a moderate case of Botswana etc.

 

[Foxholer]

So a kind of tricky question and maybe one @Ethan can help with. It's about level of risk. I work in primary schools instructing Bikeability (think Cycling Proficiency in the modern world!). Most contact with riders (years 3 to 6) is outside although breaks are spent in school and the necessary signing in/out etc. There are Covid guidelines in place for us but it can be tricky to avoid contact with ill-fitting cycle helmets plus handling bikes to check their road worthiness.

So today was a group of year 3 in the morning and year 4 in the afternoon. At least one on the register couldn't attend due to testing positive for Covid.

We have to test twice weekly but I'm wondering what my risk is of contracting it (triple jabbed) but most importantly being asymptomatic and passing it on inadvertantly. I have a social event tomorrow evening in a pub and I'm thinking it wisest not to attend...

The range of ages you are dealing with (Age 2 to School Year 6) have, according to the latest Gov.UK report, just swapped with the previous highest infecton rate (School Years 7 to 12) though the change is only 0.2 an 0.1% resp in each direction (to 3.7 and 3.5% resp). So I think you are still wise to restrict your 'social' activity - especially in 'frequent close proximity' venues such as pubs.

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

About this new variant - I’m worried, worried, worried as i fear too many of us have got used to life with minimal or no constraints…and rather prefer it to the ‘oh I’m fed up with all of this’ life of constraints, caution and lockdown. I wont bet my bottom dollar on it, but I fear the proximity of Christmas may sway the thinking of some on what we might have to (re)start doing.

 

[Imurg]

Let's be honest...the chances are that it's already here....apparently Belgium has a case....
With SA on the list there must thousands of people who have been to or come from SA in the last week alone....add in Zimbabwe and the others.
Could make for an interesting winter.........

 

[AmandaJR]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I think I've found myself in a weird place where I've become too risk averse and could allow that to impact on my life too much.

 

[Foxholer]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I think I've found myself in a weird place where I've become too risk averse and could allow that to impact on my life too much.

Given your particular circumstances, I believe being risk averse is both 'natural' and 'to be commended'! I've observed some seriously 'other end of the scale' activities/incidents - at least one of which had serious consequences, though, fortunately, not for me!

 

[D-S]

About this new variant - I’m worried, worried, worried as i fear too many of us have got used to life with minimal or no constraints…and rather prefer it to the ‘oh I’m fed up with all of this’ life of constraints, caution and lockdown. I wont get my bottom dollar on it, but I fear the proximity of Christmas may sway the thinking of some on what we might have to (re)start doing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464269360126697475

 

[RichA]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I think I've found myself in a weird place where I've become too risk averse and could allow that to impact on my life too much.

You can still do most of the things you enjoy while being sensible and cautious. You can always suggest sitting / standing in a better ventilated, better spaced out area. If you're not comfortable, you can always leave early to deal with something at home you've just had a text message about. I've been doing that for decades.

 

[Hobbit]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I think I've found myself in a weird place where I've become too risk averse and could allow that to impact on my life too much.

The WHO did a great piece detailing those that contracted Covid, and where from. Outside activities came in at 0.06% of those contracting Covid. Add in the jabs and I’d put a solid bet on you being ok. Think supermarkets came in at 19%…

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464269360126697475

Which is fine….but what we must not do is be lax and easy-oasie about letting it in and letting it spread because we might in the weeks to come discover that it is dangerous. We should instead consult Captain Hindsight…from whom we will learn that we must act fast and hard; we must close the barn door before the horse has a chance to bolt; and that he who hesitates is lost…there are no excuses.

 

[ColchesterFC]

We've had Covid in the house for the last 10+ days. Younger boy tested positive on 16th Nov and has come through it with very mild symptoms. I tested positive on 20th Nov and had a couple of rough days with muscle aches but in general have only had mild cold symptoms. Mrs Colch tested positive on 22nd Nov (although almost certainly had it from 20th) and is the worst out of all of us. Main issue seems to be a severe headache. All of the above were positive LFT confirmed with positive PCR. Older boy tested positive on LFT yesterday, 25th Nov, and had the strongest positive result out of all us on the LFT. His PCR test has come back today as negative. Just done another LFT on him and that's also negative. No idea how older boy has managed to escape getting it when the other three of us in the house have all had it.

 

[road2ruin]

Which is fine….but what we must not do is be lax and easy-oasie about letting it in and letting it spread because we might in the weeks to come discover that it is dangerous. We should instead consult Captain Hindsight…from whom we will learn that we must act fast and hard; we must close the barn door before the horse has a chance to bolt; and that he who hesitates is lost…there are no excuses.

All new variants will eventually make it onto our shores, nothing you can do to stop it. Putting the African countries on the red list will buy us a little time for more research to have been done on the variant however, as mentioned, there's probably a fair chance that it's here already.

 

[Swinglowandslow]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I think I've found myself in a weird place where I've become too risk averse and could allow that to impact on my life too much.

At my age, I'm more cautious than not. Especially as the ironic thing is that at this time, the incidence of infections in my area is higher than any previous time since this started.
To me, the places where infections are picked up mostly is at indoor functions where groups gather to eat. Social "do's" to celebrate something etc.
This is a pain. I'd love to go to the clubs turkey trot lunch etc, but I choose not to.Dont go to restaurants either. Haven't seen anything to suggest that ventilation at these places now is anything different to pre Covid
Ethan may be right that we are all going to get it somewhen. I'm hoping that that moment may as far away as possible so that Im stronger and it's weaker,
But then that probably won't apply, either 😀

 

[SwingsitlikeHogan]

All new variants will eventually make it onto our shores, nothing you can do to stop it. Putting the African countries on the red list will buy us a little time for more research to have been done on the variant however, as mentioned, there's probably a fair chance that it's here already.

So action required now to mandate things we must do to minimise and contain spread? Might as well get us used to some form of ‘return‘ whilst it’s not critical?

 

[Ethan]

All new variants will eventually make it onto our shores, nothing you can do to stop it. Putting the African countries on the red list will buy us a little time for more research to have been done on the variant however, as mentioned, there's probably a fair chance that it's here already.

It is certainly true that it will get her eventually, and probably that it is here already, but reducing the amount that gets here still matters, as well as delaying that as much as possible so a better response can be developed. So I therefore support travel restrictions on this one.

 

[DRW]

We've had Covid in the house for the last 10+ days. Younger boy tested positive on 16th Nov and has come through it with very mild symptoms. I tested positive on 20th Nov and had a couple of rough days with muscle aches but in general have only had mild cold symptoms. Mrs Colch tested positive on 22nd Nov (although almost certainly had it from 20th) and is the worst out of all of us. Main issue seems to be a severe headache. All of the above were positive LFT confirmed with positive PCR. Older boy tested positive on LFT yesterday, 25th Nov, and had the strongest positive result out of all us on the LFT. His PCR test has come back today as negative. Just done another LFT on him and that's also negative. No idea how older boy has managed to escape getting it when the other three of us in the house have all had it.

Hope all goes okay and all recover well.

Its strange isn't it.

On secondary strike rates, your story is not unusual pre or post vaccines, heard plenty of such situations. Heard pre vaccine of a dad dying with it, mum/sister getting it and 'as such fine', but son didnt get(all middle aged or older). Post vaccine someone near us, the son/girlfriend had it, unvaxxed dad didnt get it, nor did vaxxed mum. So many weird cases.

Secondary strike rates are surprisingly low (some indication is given on the variants of concern reports by PHE, if you wish to read them and the tables they produce)